Developing narrative and comprehension skills in early childhood is critical for later literacy. However, teachers in large preschool classrooms struggle to accurately identify students who require intervention. We present a system for automatically assessing oral narratives of preschool children in Afrikaans and isiXhosa. The system uses automatic speech recognition followed by a machine learning scoring model to predict narrative and comprehension scores. For scoring predicted transcripts, we compare a linear model to a large language model (LLM). The LLM-based system outperforms the linear model in most cases, but the linear system is competitive despite its simplicity. The LLM-based system is comparable to a human expert in flagging children who require intervention. We lay the foundation for automatic oral assessments in classrooms, giving teachers extra capacity to focus on personalised support for children's learning.

Predicting a response with partially missing inputs remains a challenging task even in parametric models, since parameter estimation in itself is not sufficient to predict on partially observed inputs. Several works study prediction in linear models. In this paper, we focus on logistic models, which present their own difficulties. From a theoretical perspective, we prove that a Pattern-by-Pattern strategy (PbP), which learns one logistic model per missingness pattern, accurately approximates Bayes probabilities in various missing data scenarios (MCAR, MAR and MNAR). Empirically, we thoroughly compare various methods (constant and iterative imputations, complete case analysis, PbP, and an EM algorithm) across classification, probability estimation, calibration, and parameter inference. Our analysis provides a comprehensive view on the logistic regression with missing values. It reveals that mean imputation can be used as baseline for low sample sizes, and improved performance is obtained via nonlinear multiple iterative imputation techniques with the labels ( MICE.RF.Y). For large sample sizes, PbP is the best method for Gaussian mixtures, and we recommend MICE.RF.Y in presence of nonlinear features.

We consider the $[0,1]$-valued regression problem in the i.i.d. setting. In a related problem called cost-sensitive classification, \citet{foster21efficient} have shown that the log loss minimizer achieves an improved generalization bound compared to that of the squared loss minimizer in the sense that the bound scales with the cost of the best classifier, which can be arbitrarily small depending on the problem at hand. Such a result is often called a first-order bound. For $[0,1]$-valued regression, we first show that the log loss minimizer leads to a similar first-order bound. We then ask if there exists a loss function that achieves a variance-dependent bound (also known as a second order bound), which is a strict improvement upon first-order bounds. We answer this question in the affirmative by proposing a novel loss function called the betting loss. Our result is ``variance-adaptive'' in the sense that the bound is attained \textit{without any knowledge about the variance}, which is in contrast to modeling label (or reward) variance or the label distribution itself explicitly as part of the function class such as distributional reinforcement learning.

--The study "Prediction of Highway Traffic Flow Based on Artificial Intelligence Algorithms Using California Traffic Data" presents a machine learning-based traffic flow prediction model to address global traffic congestion issues. The study employed Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms, analyzing data collection intervals ranging from 30 seconds to 15 minutes. Using R, MAE, and RMSE as performance metrics, the analysis revealed that both MLR and RF models performed optimally with 10-minute data collection intervals. These findings are expected to contribute to future traffic congestion solutions and efficient traffic management. Currently, traffic congestion is one of the most pressing issues faced globally.

We propose a framework for building patient-specific treatment recommendation models, building on the large recent literature on learning patient-level causal models and inspired by the target trial paradigm of Hernan and Robins. We focus on safety and validity, including the crucial issue of causal identification when using observational data. We do not provide a specific model, but rather a way to integrate existing methods and know-how into a practical pipeline. We further provide a real world use-case of treatment optimization for patients with heart failure who develop acute kidney injury during hospitalization. The results suggest our pipeline can improve patient outcomes over the current treatment regime.

Imbalanced problems are prevalent in various real-world scenarios and are extensively explored in classification tasks. However, they also present challenges for regression tasks due to the rarity of certain target values. A common alternative is to employ balancing algorithms in preprocessing to address dataset imbalance. However, due to the variety of resampling methods and learning models, determining the optimal solution requires testing many combinations. Furthermore, the learning model, dataset, and evaluation metric affect the best strategies. This work proposes the Meta-learning for Imbalanced Regression (Meta-IR) framework, which diverges from existing literature by training meta-classifiers to recommend the best pipeline composed of the resampling strategy and learning model per task in a zero-shot fashion. The meta-classifiers are trained using a set of meta-features to learn how to map the meta-features to the classes indicating the best pipeline. We propose two formulations: Independent and Chained. Independent trains the meta-classifiers to separately indicate the best learning algorithm and resampling strategy. Chained involves a sequential procedure where the output of one meta-classifier is used as input for another to model intrinsic relationship factors. The Chained scenario showed superior performance, suggesting a relationship between the learning algorithm and the resampling strategy per task. Compared with AutoML frameworks, Meta-IR obtained better results. Moreover, compared with baselines of six learning algorithms and six resampling algorithms plus no resampling, totaling 42 (6 X 7) configurations, Meta-IR outperformed all of them. The code, data, and further information of the experiments can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/JusciAvelino/Meta-IR.

We present an experimental study of a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) interrogator based on a silicon oxynitride (SiON) photonic integrated arrayed waveguide grating (AWG). While AWG-based interrogators are compact and scalable, their practical performance is limited by non-ideal spectral responses. To address this, two calibration strategies within a 2.4 nm spectral region were compared: (1) a segmented analytical model based on a sigmoid fitting function, and (2) a machine learning (ML)-based regression model. The analytical method achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.11 pm within the calibrated range, while the ML approach based on exponential regression achieves 3.17 pm. Moreover, the ML model demonstrates generalization across an extended 2.9 nm wavelength span, maintaining sub-5 pm accuracy without re-fitting. Residual and error distribution analyses further illustrate the trade-offs between the two approaches. ML-based calibration provides a robust, data-driven alternative to analytical methods, delivering enhanced accuracy for non-ideal channel responses, reduced manual calibration effort, and improved scalability across diverse FBG sensor configurations.

Imbalanced problems can arise in different real-world situations, and to address this, certain strategies in the form of resampling or balancing algorithms are proposed. This issue has largely been studied in the context of classification, and yet, the same problem features in regression tasks, where target values are continuous. This work presents an extensive experimental study comprising various balancing and predictive models, and wich uses metrics to capture important elements for the user and to evaluate the predictive model in an imbalanced regression data context. It also proposes a taxonomy for imbalanced regression approaches based on three crucial criteria: regression model, learning process, and evaluation metrics. The study offers new insights into the use of such strategies, highlighting the advantages they bring to each model's learning process, and indicating directions for further studies. The code, data and further information related to the experiments performed herein can be found on GitHub: https://github.com/JusciAvelino/imbalancedRegression.

The paradigm of linear structural equation modeling readily allows one to incorporate causal feedback loops in the model specification. These appear as directed cycles in the common graphical representation of the models. However, the presence of cycles entails difficulties such as the fact that models need no longer be characterized by conditional independence relations. As a result, learning cyclic causal structures remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we offer new insights on this problem in the context of linear non-Gaussian models. First, we precisely characterize when two directed graphs determine the same linear non-Gaussian model. Next, we take up a setting of cycle-disjoint graphs, for which we are able to show that simple quadratic and cubic polynomial relations among low-order moments of a non-Gaussian distribution allow one to locate source cycles. Complementing this with a strategy of decorrelating cycles and multivariate regression allows one to infer a block-topological order among the directed cycles, which leads to a {consistent and computationally efficient algorithm} for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles.

The lack of high-quality public cyber incident data limits empirical research and predictive modeling for cyber risk assessment. This challenge persists due to the reluctance of companies to disclose incidents that could damage their reputation or investor confidence. Therefore, from an actuarial perspective, potential resolutions conclude two aspects: the enhancement of existing cyber incident datasets and the implementation of advanced modeling techniques to optimize the use of the available data. A review of existing data-driven methods highlights a significant lack of entity-specific organizational features in publicly available datasets. To address this gap, we propose a novel InsurTech framework that enriches cyber incident data with entity-specific attributes. We develop various machine learning (ML) models: a multilabel classification model to predict the occurrence of cyber incident types (e.g., Privacy Violation, Data Breach, Fraud and Extortion, IT Error, and Others) and a multioutput regression model to estimate their annual frequencies. While classifier and regressor chains are implemented to explore dependencies among cyber incident types as well, no significant correlations are observed in our datasets. Besides, we apply multiple interpretable ML techniques to identify and cross-validate potential risk factors developed by InsurTech across ML models. We find that InsurTech empowered features enhance prediction occurrence and frequency estimation robustness compared to only using conventional risk factors. The framework generates transparent, entity-specific cyber risk profiles, supporting customized underwriting and proactive cyber risk mitigation. It provides insurers and organizations with data-driven insights to support decision-making and compliance planning.