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Explainable AI and Machine Learning for Exam-based Student Evaluation: Causal and Predictive Analysis of Socio-academic and Economic Factors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Academic performance depends on a multivariable nexus of socio-academic and financial factors. This study investigates these influences to develop effective strategies for optimizing students' CGP A. To achieve this, we reviewed various literature to identify key influencing factors and constructed a initial hypothetical causal graph based on the findings. Additionally, an online survey was conducted, where 1,050 students participated, providing comprehensive data for analysis. Causal analysis validated the relationships among variables, offering deeper insights into their direct and indirect effects on CGP A. Regression models were implemented for CGP A prediction, while classification models categorized students based on performance levels. Ridge Regression demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, achieving a Mean Absolute Error of 0.12 and a Mean Squared Error of 0.023. Random Forest outperformed in classification, attaining an F1-score near perfection and an accuracy of 98.68%. The study culminated in the development of a web-based application that provides students with personalized insights, allowing them to predict academic performance, identify areas for improvement, and make informed decisions to enhance their outcomes. The education system in Bangladesh, characterized by its highly competitive structure, places substantial emphasis on academic achievements, particularly the Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGP A). In Bangladesh, students are under continuous pressure to achieve a high CGP A, which not only impacts their academic reputation but also has broader implications for their personal and social lives. Failure to maintain a competitive CGP A can lead to severe consequences, such as academic probation or even dropout, which are more common than often realized ( (Nurmalitasari et al., 2023; de Assis et al., 2022)). This system, while striving to maintain high standards, also exposes students to risks related to academic stress and potential burnout, with low CGP A often correlating with decreased motivation and higher dropout rates ((Behr et al., 2020)). Consequently, CGP A holds significant weight in shaping students' academic trajectories, making it an essential factor not only for students themselves but also for educators and institutions aiming to foster positive academic environments. Understanding and accurately predicting CGP A could thus support students in better managing their academic journeys, offering early interventions for those at risk, and allowing educators to tailor their approaches to student needs.


Online Estimation of Table-Top Grown Strawberry Mass in Field Conditions with Occlusions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Accurate mass estimation of table-top grown strawberries under field conditions remains challenging due to frequent occlusions and pose variations. This study proposes a vision-based pipeline integrating RGB-D sensing and deep learning to enable non-destructive, real-time and online mass estimation. The method employed YOLOv8-Seg for instance segmentation, Cycle-consistent generative adversarial network (CycleGAN) for occluded region completion, and tilt-angle correction to refine frontal projection area calculations. A polynomial regression model then mapped the geometric features to mass. Experiments demonstrated mean mass estimation errors of 8.11% for not-occluded strawberries and 10.47% for occluded cases. CycleGAN outperformed large mask inpaint-ing (LaMa) model in occlusion recovery, achieving superior pixel area ratios (PAR) (mean: 0.978 vs. 1.112) and higher intersection over union (IoU) scores (92.3% vs. 47.7% in the [0.9-1] range). This approach addresses critical limitations of traditional methods, offering a robust solution for automated harvesting and yield monitoring with complex occlusion patterns. I. INTRODUCTION Fruit mass estimation is essential for optimizing harvest timing, improving agricultural efficiency, and advancing smart, precision agriculture [1].


GenoMAS: A Multi-Agent Framework for Scientific Discovery via Code-Driven Gene Expression Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scientific research increasingly depends on complex computational analysis, yet the design and execution of such analysis remain labor-intensive, error-prone, and difficult to scale. From genomics [23, 103, 125], materials discovery [25], drug development [49, 106], and epidemiology [69, 9], to climate modeling [60] and personalized medicine [36], the analytical backbone of modern science involves highly structured, multi-step workflows written in code. These workflows must integrate raw or semi-structured data, apply statistical or mechanistic models, and yield interpretable results--all under the constraints of evolving domain knowledge, platform variation, and methodological rigor. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have led to rapid progress in general-purpose agents capable of decomposing tasks [118, 113, 79, 18], interacting with tools [86, 138, 147, 49], and producing executable code [30, 126, 167, 114, 140]. These developments have raised the prospect that LLM-based agents might soon contribute meaningfully to scientific discovery by automating analysis pipelines, exploring hypotheses, or refining computational models [8, 60]. However, realizing this promise requires bridging a fundamental gap between general reasoning ability and the structured, precision-driven nature of scientific computation. While many LLM-based agents have shown competence in retrieving documents, calling APIs, or planning abstract tasks [165, 154, 46, 124], these capabilities fall short in domains where scientific progress depends on code. In fields such as transcriptomics [90, 69, 9], protein engineering [106], and statistical genetics [36, 76], research workflows are encoded as sequences of programmatic transformations, each tailored to the idiosyncrasies of a specific dataset, model assumption, or experimental design.


A Machine Learning Approach for Honey Adulteration Detection using Mineral Element Profiles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper aims to develop a Machin e Learning (ML) - based system for detecting honey adulteration utilizing honey mineral element profiles. The proposed system comprises two phases: preprocessing and classification. The preprocessing phase involves the treatment of missing - value attributes a nd normalization. In the classification phase, we use three supervised ML models: logistic regression, d ecision tree, and random forest, to discriminate between authentic and adulterated honey. To evaluate the performance of the ML models, we use a public dataset comprising measurements of mineral element content of authentic honey, sugar syrups, and adulterated honey. Experimental findings show that mineral element content in honey provides robust discriminative information for detecting honey adulteration . Results also dem onstrate that the random forest - based classifier outperforms other classifiers on this dataset, achieving the highest cross - validation accuracy of 98.37%.


Observational Multiplicity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many prediction tasks can admit multiple models that can perform almost equally well. This phenomenon can can undermine interpretability and safety when competing models assign conflicting predictions to individuals. In this work, we study how arbitrariness can arise in probabilistic classification tasks as a result of an effect that we call \emph{observational multiplicity}. We discuss how this effect arises in a broad class of practical applications where we learn a classifier to predict probabilities $p_i \in [0,1]$ but are given a dataset of observations $y_i \in \{0,1\}$. We propose to evaluate the arbitrariness of individual probability predictions through the lens of \emph{regret}. We introduce a measure of regret for probabilistic classification tasks, which measures how the predictions of a model could change as a result of different training labels change. We present a general-purpose method to estimate the regret in a probabilistic classification task. We use our measure to show that regret is higher for certain groups in the dataset and discuss potential applications of regret. We demonstrate how estimating regret promote safety in real-world applications by abstention and data collection.


Quantifying surprise in clinical care: Detecting highly informative events in electronic health records with foundation models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.


MIBoost: A Gradient Boosting Algorithm for Variable Selection After Multiple Imputation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical learning methods for automated variable selection, such as LASSO, elastic nets, or gradient boosting, have become increasingly popular tools for building powerful prediction models. Yet, in practice, analyses are often complicated by missing data. The most widely used approach to address missingness is multiple imputation, which creates several completed datasets. However, there is an ongoing debate on how to perform model selection in the presence of multiple imputed datasets. Simple strategies, such as pooling models across datasets, have been shown to have suboptimal properties. Although more sophisticated methods exist, they are often difficult to implement and therefore not widely applied. In contrast, two recent approaches modify the regularization methods LASSO and elastic nets by defining a single loss function, resulting in a unified set of coefficients across imputations. Our key contribution is to extend this principle to the framework of component-wise gradient boosting by proposing MIBoost, a novel algorithm that employs a uniform variable-selection mechanism across imputed datasets. Simulation studies suggest that our approach yields prediction performance comparable to that of these recently proposed methods.


Cardiovascular Disease Prediction using Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a main cause of mortality globally, accounting for 31% of all deaths. This study involves a cardiovascular disease (CVD) dataset comprising 68,119 records to explore the influence of numerical (age, height, weight, blood pressure, BMI) and categorical gender, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, alcohol, activity) factors on CVD occurrence. We have performed statistical analyses, including t - tests, Chi - square tests, and ANOVA, to identify strong associations between CVD and elde rly people, hypertension, higher weight, and abnormal cholesterol levels, while physical activity (a protective factor). A logistic regression model highlights age, blood pressure, and cholesterol as primary risk factors, with unexpected negative associati ons for smoking and alcohol, suggesting potential data issues. Model performance comparisons reveal CatBoost as the top performer with an accuracy of 0.734 and an ECE of 0.0064 and excels in probabilistic prediction (Brier score = 0.1824). Data challenges, including outliers and skewed distributions, indicate a need for improved preprocessing to enhance predictive reliability. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) encompass a range of conditions affecting the heart and blood vessels, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.


Predicting VBAC Outcomes from U.S. Natality Data using Deep and Classical Machine Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately predicting the outcome of a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) is essential for guiding prenatal counseling and minimizing delivery-related risks. This study presents supervised machine learning models for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) using 643,029 TOLAC cases from the CDC WONDER Natality dataset (2017-2023). After filtering for singleton births with one or two prior cesareans and complete data across 47 prenatal-period features, three classifiers were trained: logistic regression, XGBoost, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP). The MLP achieved the highest performance with an AUC of 0.7287, followed closely by XGBoost (AUC = 0.727), both surpassing the logistic regression baseline (AUC = 0.709). To address class imbalance, class weighting was applied to the MLP, and a custom loss function was implemented in XGBoost. Evaluation metrics included ROC curves, confusion matrices, and precision-recall analysis. Logistic regression coefficients highlighted maternal BMI, education, parity, comorbidities, and prenatal care indicators as key predictors. Overall, the results demonstrate that routinely collected, early-pregnancy variables can support scalable and moderately high-performing VBAC prediction models. These models offer potential utility in clinical decision support, particularly in settings lacking access to specialized intrapartum data.


Product vs. Process: Exploring EFL Students' Editing of AI-Generated Text for Expository Writing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Text generated by artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots is increasingly used in English as a foreign language (EFL) writing contexts, yet its impact on students' expository writing process and compositions remains understudied. This research examines how EFL secondary students edit AI-generated text. Exploring editing behaviors in their expository writing process and in expository compositions, and their effect on human-rated scores for content, organization, language, and overall quality. Participants were 39 Hong Kong secondary students who wrote an expository composition with AI chatbots in a workshop. A convergent design was employed to analyze their screen recordings and compositions to examine students' editing behaviors and writing qualities. Analytical methods included qualitative coding, descriptive statistics, temporal sequence analysis, human-rated scoring, and multiple linear regression analysis. We analyzed over 260 edits per dataset, and identified two editing patterns: one where students refined introductory units repeatedly before progressing, and another where they quickly shifted to extensive edits in body units (e.g., topic and supporting sentences). MLR analyses revealed that the number of AI-generated words positively predicted all score dimensions, while most editing variables showed minimal impact. These results suggest a disconnect between students' significant editing effort and improved composition quality, indicating AI supports but does not replace writing skills. The findings highlight the importance of genre-specific instruction and process-focused writing before AI integration. Educators should also develop assessments valuing both process and product to encourage critical engagement with AI text.