Regression
Exploring Strategies for Personalized Radiation Therapy: Part III Identifying genetic determinants for Radiation Response with Meta Learning
Peng, Hao, Zhang, Yuanyuan, Jiang, Steve, Timmerman, Robert, Minna, John
Radiation response in cancer is shaped by complex, patient specific biology, yet current treatment strategies often rely on uniform dose prescriptions without accounting for tumor heterogeneity. In this study, we introduce a meta learning framework for one-shot prediction of radiosensitivity measured by SF2 using cell line level gene expression data. Unlike the widely used Radiosensitivity Index RSI a rank-based linear model trained on a fixed 10-gene signature, our proposed meta-learned model allows the importance of each gene to vary by sample through fine tuning. This flexibility addresses key limitations of static models like RSI, which assume uniform gene contributions across tumor types and discard expression magnitude and gene gene interactions. Our results show that meta learning offers robust generalization to unseen samples and performs well in tumor subgroups with high radiosensitivity variability, such as adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma. By learning transferable structure across tasks while preserving sample specific adaptability, our approach enables rapid adaptation to individual samples, improving predictive accuracy across diverse tumor subtypes while uncovering context dependent patterns of gene influence that may inform personalized therapy.
Statistical Theory of Multi-stage Newton Iteration Algorithm for Online Continual Learning
Lu, Xinjia, Wang, Chuhan, Zhao, Qian, Zhu, Lixing, Zhu, Xuehu
We focus on the critical challenge of handling non-stationary data streams in online continual learning environments, where constrained storage capacity prevents complete retention of historical data, leading to catastrophic forgetting during sequential task training. To more effectively analyze and address the problem of catastrophic forgetting in continual learning, we propose a novel continual learning framework from a statistical perspective. Our approach incorporates random effects across all model parameters and allows the dimension of parameters to diverge to infinity, offering a general formulation for continual learning problems. To efficiently process streaming data, we develop a Multi-step Newton Iteration algorithm that significantly reduces computational costs in certain scenarios by alleviating the burden of matrix inversion. Theoretically, we derive the asymptotic normality of the estimator, enabling subsequent statistical inference. Comprehensive validation through synthetic data experiments and two real datasets analyses demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed method.
Do Streetscapes Still Matter for Customer Ratings of Eating and Drinking Establishments in Car-Dependent Cities?
Han, Chaeyeon, Lieu, Seung Jae, Hwang, Uijeong, Guhathakurta, Subhrajit
This study examines how indoor and outdoor aesthetics, streetscapes, and neighborhood features shape customer satisfaction at eating and dining establishments (EDEs) across different urban contexts, varying in car dependency, in Washington, DC. Using review photos and street view images, computer vision models quantified perceived safety and visual appeal. Ordinal logistic regression analyzed their effects on Yelp ratings. Findings reveal that both indoor and outdoor environments significantly impact EDE ratings, while streetscape quality's influence diminishes in car-dependent areas. The study highlights the need for context-sensitive planning that integrates indoor and outdoor factors to enhance customer experiences in diverse settings.
Decorrelated feature importance from local sample weighting
Fröhlich, Benedikt, Durst, Alison, Behr, Merle
Feature importance (FI) statistics provide a prominent and valuable method of insight into the decision process of machine learning (ML) models, but their effectiveness has well-known limitations when correlation is present among the features in the training data. In this case, the FI often tends to be distributed among all features which are in correlation with the response-generating signal features. Even worse, if multiple signal features are in strong correlation with a noise feature, while being only modestly correlated with one another, this can result in a noise feature having a distinctly larger FI score than any signal feature. Here we propose local sample weighting (losaw) which can flexibly be integrated into many ML algorithms to improve FI scores in the presence of feature correlation in the training data. Our approach is motivated from inverse probability weighting in causal inference and locally, within the ML model, uses a sample weighting scheme to decorrelate a target feature from the remaining features. This reduces model bias locally, whenever the effect of a potential signal feature is evaluated and compared to others. Moreover, losaw comes with a natural tuning parameter, the minimum effective sample size of the weighted population, which corresponds to an interpretation-prediction-tradeoff, analog to a bias-variance-tradeoff as for classical ML tuning parameters. We demonstrate how losaw can be integrated within decision tree-based ML methods and within mini-batch training of neural networks. We investigate losaw for random forest and convolutional neural networks in a simulation study on settings showing diverse correlation patterns. We found that losaw improves FI consistently. Moreover, it often improves prediction accuracy for out-of-distribution, while maintaining a similar accuracy for in-distribution test data.
Reduction Techniques for Survival Analysis
Piller, Johannes, Orsini, Léa, Wiegrebe, Simon, Zobolas, John, Burk, Lukas, Langbein, Sophie Hanna, Studener, Philip, Goeswein, Markus, Bender, Andreas
In this work, we discuss what we refer to as reduction techniques for survival analysis, that is, techniques that "reduce" a survival task to a more common regression or classification task, without ignoring the specifics of survival data. Such techniques particularly facilitate machine learning-based survival analysis, as they allow for applying standard tools from machine and deep learning to many survival tasks without requiring custom learners. We provide an overview of different reduction techniques and discuss their respective strengths and weaknesses. We also provide a principled implementation of some of these reductions, such that they are directly available within standard machine learning workflows. We illustrate each reduction using dedicated examples and perform a benchmark analysis that compares their predictive performance to established machine learning methods for survival analysis.
Ensemble-Based Graph Representation of fMRI Data for Cognitive Brain State Classification
Vlasenko, Daniil, Ushakov, Vadim, Zaikin, Alexey, Zakharov, Denis
Understanding and classifying human cognitive brain states based on neuroimaging data remains one of the foremost and most challenging problems in neuroscience, owing to the high dimensionality and intrinsic noise of the signals. In this work, we propose an ensemble-based graph representation method of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data for the task of binary brain-state classification. Our method builds the graph by leveraging multiple base machine-learning models: each edge weight reflects the difference in posterior probabilities between two cognitive states, yielding values in the range [-1, 1] that encode confidence in a given state. We applied this approach to seven cognitive tasks from the Human Connectome Project (HCP 1200 Subject Release), including working memory, gambling, motor activity, language, social cognition, relational processing, and emotion processing. Using only the mean incident edge weights of the graphs as features, a simple logistic-regression classifier achieved average accuracies from 97.07% to 99.74%. We also compared our ensemble graphs with classical correlation-based graphs in a classification task with a graph neural network (GNN). In all experiments, the highest classification accuracy was obtained with ensemble graphs. These results demonstrate that ensemble graphs convey richer topological information and enhance brain-state discrimination. Our approach preserves edge-level interpretability of the fMRI graph representation, is adaptable to multiclass and regression tasks, and can be extended to other neuroimaging modalities and pathological-state classification.
LLM-Meta-SR: In-Context Learning for Evolving Selection Operators in Symbolic Regression
Zhang, Hengzhe, Chen, Qi, Xue, Bing, Banzhaf, Wolfgang, Zhang, Mengjie
Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized algorithm development, yet their application in symbolic regression, where algorithms automatically discover symbolic expressions from data, remains constrained and is typically designed manually by human experts. In this paper, we propose a meta learning framework that enables LLMs to automatically design selection operators for evolutionary symbolic regression algorithms. We first identify two key limitations in existing LLM-based algorithm evolution techniques: a lack of semantic guidance and code bloat. The absence of semantic awareness can lead to ineffective exchange of useful code components, and bloat results in unnecessarily complex components, both of which can reduce the interpretability of the designed algorithm or hinder evolutionary learning progress. To address these issues, we enhance the LLM-based evolution framework for meta symbolic regression with two key innovations: a complementary, semantics-aware selection operator and bloat control. Additionally, we embed domain knowledge into the prompt, enabling the LLM to generate more effective and contextually relevant selection operators. Our experimental results on symbolic regression benchmarks show that LLMs can devise selection operators that outperform nine expert-designed baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, the evolved operator can further improve the state-of-the-art symbolic regression algorithm, achieving the best performance among 26 symbolic regression and machine learning algorithms across 116 regression datasets. This demonstrates that LLMs can exceed expert-level algorithm design for symbolic regression.
SMOGAN: Synthetic Minority Oversampling with GAN Refinement for Imbalanced Regression
Alahyari, Shayan, Domaratzki, Mike
Imbalanced regression refers to prediction tasks where the target variable is skewed. This skewness hinders machine learning models, especially neural networks, which concentrate on dense regions and therefore perform poorly on underrepresented (minority) samples. Despite the importance of this problem, only a few methods have been proposed for imbalanced regression. Many of the available solutions for imbalanced regression adapt techniques from the class imbalance domain, such as linear interpolation and the addition of Gaussian noise, to create synthetic data in sparse regions. However, in many cases, the underlying distribution of the data is complex and non-linear. Consequently, these approaches generate synthetic samples that do not accurately represent the true feature-target relationship. To overcome these limitations, we propose SMOGAN, a two-step oversampling framework for imbalanced regression. In Stage 1, an existing oversampler generates initial synthetic samples in sparse target regions. In Stage 2, we introduce DistGAN, a distribution-aware GAN that serves as SMOGAN's filtering layer and refines these samples via adversarial loss augmented with a Maximum Mean Discrepancy objective, aligning them with the true joint feature-target distribution. Extensive experiments on 23 imbalanced datasets show that SMOGAN consistently outperforms the default oversampling method without the DistGAN filtering layer.
RDDPM: Robust Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Unsupervised Anomaly Segmentation
Moradi, Mehrdad, Paynabar, Kamran
Recent advancements in diffusion models have demonstrated significant success in unsupervised anomaly segmentation. For anomaly segmentation, these models are first trained on normal data; then, an anomalous image is noised to an intermediate step, and the normal image is reconstructed through backward diffusion. Unlike traditional statistical methods, diffusion models do not rely on specific assumptions about the data or target anomalies, making them versatile for use across different domains. However, diffusion models typically assume access to normal data for training, limiting their applicability in realistic settings. In this paper, we propose novel robust denoising diffusion models for scenarios where only contaminated (i.e., a mix of normal and anomalous) unlabeled data is available. By casting maximum likelihood estimation of the data as a nonlinear regression problem, we reinterpret the denoising diffusion probabilistic model through a regression lens. Using robust regression, we derive a robust version of denoising diffusion probabilistic models. Our novel framework offers flexibility in constructing various robust diffusion models. Our experiments show that our approach outperforms current state of the art diffusion models, for unsupervised anomaly segmentation when only contaminated data is available. Our method outperforms existing diffusion-based approaches, achieving up to 8.08\% higher AUROC and 10.37\% higher AUPRC on MVTec datasets. The implementation code is available at: https://github.com/mehrdadmoradi124/RDDPM
High-Dimensional Differentially Private Quantile Regression: Distributed Estimation and Statistical Inference
Shen, Ziliang, Wang, Caixing, Wang, Shaoli, Yan, Yibo
With the development of big data and machine learning, privacy concerns have become increasingly critical, especially when handling heterogeneous datasets containing sensitive personal information. Differential privacy provides a rigorous framework for safeguarding individual privacy while enabling meaningful statistical analysis. In this paper, we propose a differentially private quantile regression method for high-dimensional data in a distributed setting. Quantile regression is a powerful and robust tool for modeling the relationships between the covariates and responses in the presence of outliers or heavy-tailed distributions. To address the computational challenges due to the non-smoothness of the quantile loss function, we introduce a Newton-type transformation that reformulates the quantile regression task into an ordinary least squares problem. Building on this, we develop a differentially private estimation algorithm with iterative updates, ensuring both near-optimal statistical accuracy and formal privacy guarantees. For inference, we further propose a differentially private debiased estimator, which enables valid confidence interval construction and hypothesis testing. Additionally, we propose a communication-efficient and differentially private bootstrap for simultaneous hypothesis testing in high-dimensional quantile regression, suitable for distributed settings with both small and abundant local data. Extensive simulations demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our methods in practical scenarios.