Machine learning (ML) methods have been successfully employed in identifying variables that can predict the equity premium of individual stocks. In this paper, we investigate if ML can also be helpful in selecting variables relevant for optimal portfolio choice. To address this question, we parameterize minimum-variance portfolio weights as a function of a large pool of firm-level characteristics as well as their second-order and cross-product transformations, yielding a total of 4,610 predictors. We find that the gains from employing ML to select relevant predictors are substantial: minimum-variance portfolios achieve lower risk relative to sparse specifications commonly considered in the literature, especially when non-linear terms are added to the predictor space. Moreover, some of the selected predictors that help decreasing portfolio risk also increase returns, leading to minimum-variance portfolios with good performance in terms of Shape ratios in some situations. Our evidence suggests that ad-hoc sparsity can be detrimental to the performance of minimum-variance characteristics-based portfolios.

We study the problem of robust estimation under heterogeneous corruption rates, where each sample may be independently corrupted with a known but non-identical probability. This setting arises naturally in distributed and federated learning, crowdsourcing, and sensor networks, yet existing robust estimators typically assume uniform or worst-case corruption, ignoring structural heterogeneity. For mean estimation for multivariate bounded distributions and univariate gaussian distributions, we give tight minimax rates for all heterogeneous corruption patterns. For multivariate gaussian mean estimation and linear regression, we establish the minimax rate for squared error up to a factor of $\sqrt{d}$, where $d$ is the dimension. Roughly, our findings suggest that samples beyond a certain corruption threshold may be discarded by the optimal estimators -- this threshold is determined by the empirical distribution of the corruption rates given.

Pre-trained machine learning (ML) predictions have been increasingly used to complement incomplete data to enable downstream scientific inquiries, but their naive integration risks biased inferences. Recently, multiple methods have been developed to provide valid inference with ML imputations regardless of prediction quality and to enhance efficiency relative to complete-case analyses. However, existing approaches are often limited to missing outcomes under a missing-completely-at-random (MCAR) assumption, failing to handle general missingness patterns under the more realistic missing-at-random (MAR) assumption. This paper develops a novel method which delivers valid statistical inference framework for general Z-estimation problems using ML imputations under the MAR assumption and for general missingness patterns. The core technical idea is to stratify observations by distinct missingness patterns and construct an estimator by appropriately weighting and aggregating pattern-specific information through a masking-and-imputation procedure on the complete cases. We provide theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and efficiency dominance over weighted complete-case analyses. Practically, the method affords simple implementations by leveraging existing weighted complete-case analysis software. Extensive simulations are carried out to validate theoretical results. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on practical implications, limitations, and potential future directions.

We give a proof of the conjecture of Nelson and Nguyen [FOCS 2013] on the optimal dimension and sparsity of oblivious subspace embeddings, up to sub-polylogarithmic factors: For any $n\geq d$ and $ε\geq d^{-O(1)}$, there is a random $\tilde O(d/ε^2)\times n$ matrix $Π$ with $\tilde O(\log(d)/ε)$ non-zeros per column such that for any $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, with high probability, $(1-ε)\|Ax\|\leq\|ΠAx\|\leq(1+ε)\|Ax\|$ for all $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, where $\tilde O(\cdot)$ hides only sub-polylogarithmic factors in $d$. Our result in particular implies a new fastest sub-current matrix multiplication time reduction of size $\tilde O(d/ε^2)$ for a broad class of $n\times d$ linear regression tasks. A key novelty in our analysis is a matrix concentration technique we call iterative decoupling, which we use to fine-tune the higher-order trace moment bounds attainable via existing random matrix universality tools [Brailovskaya and van Handel, GAFA 2024].

Feature selection and importance estimation in a model-agnostic setting is an ongoing challenge of significant interest. Wrapper methods are commonly used because they are typically model-agnostic, even though they are computationally intensive. In this paper, we focus on feature selection methods related to the Generalized Covariance Measure (GCM) and Leave-One-Covariate-Out (LOCO) estimation, and provide a comparison based on relative efficiency. In particular, we present a theoretical comparison under three model settings: linear models, non-linear additive models, and single index models that mimic a single-layer neural network. We complement this with extensive simulations and real data examples. Our theoretical results, along with empirical findings, demonstrate that GCM-related methods generally outperform LOCO under suitable regularity conditions. Furthermore, we quantify the asymptotic relative efficiency of these approaches. Our simulations and real data analysis include widely used machine learning methods such as neural networks and gradient boosting trees.

Credit card fraud detection (CCFD) is a critical application of Machine Learning (ML) in the financial sector, where accurately identifying fraudulent transactions is essential for mitigating financial losses. ML models have demonstrated their effectiveness in fraud detection task, in particular with the tabular dataset. While adversarial attacks have been extensively studied in computer vision and deep learning, their impacts on the ML models, particularly those trained on CCFD tabular datasets, remains largely unexplored. These latent vulnerabilities pose significant threats to the security and stability of the financial industry, especially in high-value transactions where losses could be substantial. To address this gap, in this paper, we present a holistic framework that investigate the robustness of CCFD ML model against adversarial perturbations under different circumstances. Specifically, the gradient-based attack methods are incorporated into the tabular credit card transaction data in both black- and white-box adversarial attacks settings. Our findings confirm that tabular data is also susceptible to subtle perturbations, highlighting the need for heightened awareness among financial technology practitioners regarding ML model security and trustworthiness. Furthermore, the experiments by transferring adversarial samples from gradient-based attack method to non-gradient-based models also verify our findings. Our results demonstrate that such attacks remain effective, emphasizing the necessity of developing robust defenses for CCFD algorithms.

The prevalence of algorithmic bias in Machine Learning (ML)-driven approaches has inspired growing research on measuring and mitigating bias in the ML domain. Accordingly, prior research studied how to measure fairness in regression which is a complex problem. In particular, recent research proposed to formulate it as a density-ratio estimation problem and relied on a Logistic Regression-driven probabilistic classifier-based approach to solve it. However, there are several other methods to estimate a density ratio, and to the best of our knowledge, prior work did not study the sensitivity of such fairness measurement methods to the choice of underlying density ratio estimation algorithm. To fill this gap, this paper develops a set of fairness measurement methods with various density-ratio estimation cores and thoroughly investigates how different cores would affect the achieved level of fairness. Our experimental results show that the choice of density-ratio estimation core could significantly affect the outcome of fairness measurement method, and even, generate inconsistent results with respect to the relative fairness of various algorithms. These observations suggest major issues with density-ratio estimation based fairness measurement in regression and a need for further research to enhance their reliability.

We introduce the first taxonomy-guided evaluation of Swahili NLP, addressing gaps in sociolinguistic diversity. Drawing on health-related psychometric tasks, we collect a dataset of 2,170 free-text responses from Kenyan speakers. The data exhibits tribal influences, urban vernacular, code-mixing, and loanwords. We develop a structured taxonomy and use it as a lens for examining model prediction errors across pre-trained and instruction-tuned language models. Our findings advance culturally grounded evaluation frameworks and highlight the role of sociolinguistic variation in shaping model performance.

We thank all the reviewers for carefully reading of the manuscript and constructive comments. Reviewer #1: Assumptions A.2 and A.3 used in Algorithm 2. Reviewer #3: There seem to be several misunderstandings regarding the steps of our algorithm and its analysis. To maintain the list constant, for every added point another point is removed.

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