Probabilistic reasoning systems combine different probabilistic rules and probabilistic facts to arrive at the desired probability values of consequences. In this paper we describe the MESA-algorithm (Maximum Entropy by Simulated Annealing) that derives a joint distribution of variables or propositions. It takes into account the reliability of probability values and can resolve conflicts between contradictory statements. The joint distribution is represented in terms of marginal distributions and therefore allows to process large inference networks and to determine desired probability values with high precision. The procedure derives a maximum entropy distribution subject to the given constraints. It can be applied to inference networks of arbitrary topology and may be extended into a number of directions.

Recently, we proposed to transform the outputs of each hidden neuron in a multi-layer perceptron network to have zero output and zero slope on average, and use separate shortcut connections to model the linear dependencies instead. We continue the work by firstly introducing a third transformation to normalize the scale of the outputs of each hidden neuron, and secondly by analyzing the connections to second order optimization methods. We show that the transformations make a simple stochastic gradient behave closer to second-order optimization methods and thus speed up learning. This is shown both in theory and with experiments. The experiments on the third transformation show that while it further increases the speed of learning, it can also hurt performance by converging to a worse local optimum, where both the inputs and outputs of many hidden neurons are close to zero.

We have developed a general Bayesian algorithm for determining the coordinates of points in a three-dimensional space. The algorithm takes as input a set of probabilistic constraints on the coordinates of the points, and an a priori distribution for each point location. The output is a maximum-likelihood estimate of the location of each point. We use the extended, iterated Kalman filter, and add a search heuristic for optimizing its solution under nonlinear conditions. This heuristic is based on the same principle as the simulated annealing heuristic for other optimization problems. Our method uses any probabilistic constraints that can be expressed as a function of the point coordinates (for example, distance, angles, dihedral angles, and planarity). It assumes that all constraints have Gaussian noise. In this paper, we describe the algorithm and show its performance on a set of synthetic data to illustrate its convergence properties, and its applicability to domains such ng molecular structure determination.

The performance of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) depends critically on how learning rates are tuned and decreased over time. We propose a method to automatically adjust multiple learning rates so as to minimize the expected error at any one time. The method relies on local gradient variations across samples. In our approach, learning rates can increase as well as decrease, making it suitable for non-stationary problems. Using a number of convex and non-convex learning tasks, we show that the resulting algorithm matches the performance of SGD or other adaptive approaches with their best settings obtained through systematic search, and effectively removes the need for learning rate tuning.

In cancer diagnosis, classification of the different tumor types is of great importance. An accurate prediction of different tumor types provides better treatment and toxicity minimization on patients. Traditional methods of tackling this situation are primarily based on morphological characteristics of tumorous tissue [1]. These conventional methods are reported to have several diagnosis limitations. In order to analyze the problem of cancer classification using gene expression data, more systematic approaches have been developed [2]. Pioneering work in cancer classification by gene expression using DNA microarray showed the possibility to help the diagnosis by means of Machine Learning or more generally Data Mining methods [3], which are now extensively used for this task [4]. However, in this setting gene expression data analysis entails a heavy computational consumption of resources, due to the extreme sparseness compared to standard data sets in classification tasks [5]. Typically, a gene expression data set may consist of dozens of observations but with thousands or even tens of thousands of genes.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) has become popular for solving large scale supervised machine learning optimization problems such as SVM, due to their strong theoretical guarantees. While the closely related Dual Coordinate Ascent (DCA) method has been implemented in various software packages, it has so far lacked good convergence analysis. This paper presents a new analysis of Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (SDCA) showing that this class of methods enjoy strong theoretical guarantees that are comparable or better than SGD. This analysis justifies the effectiveness of SDCA for practical applications.

Reactive (memoryless) policies are sufficient in completely observable Markov decision processes (MDPs), but some kind of memory is usually necessary for optimal control of a partially observable MDP. Policies with finite memory can be represented as finite-state automata. In this paper, we extend Baird and Moore's VAPS algorithm to the problem of learning general finite-state automata. Because it performs stochastic gradient descent, this algorithm can be shown to converge to a locally optimal finite-state controller. We provide the details of the algorithm and then consider the question of under what conditions stochastic gradient descent will outperform exact gradient descent. We conclude with empirical results comparing the performance of stochastic and exact gradient descent, and showing the ability of our algorithm to extract the useful information contained in the sequence of past observations to compensate for the lack of observability at each time-step.

Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we want to have a sampling distribution that provides optimal-variance estimators. In this paper, we present methods that improve the sampling distribution by systematically adapting it as we obtain information from the samples. We present a stochastic-gradient-descent method for sequentially updating the sampling distribution based on the direct minization of the variance. We also present other stochastic-gradient-descent methods based on the minimizationof typical notions of distance between the current sampling distribution and approximations of the target, optimal distribution. We finally validate and compare the different methods empirically by applying them to the problem of action evaluation in influence diagrams.

We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly structured distributions that arise in probabilistic programs. We show how to automatically derive mean-field probabilistic programs and optimize them, and demonstrate that our perspective improves inference efficiency over other algorithms.

Sum-product networks are a new deep architecture that can perform fast, exact inference on high-treewidth models. Only generative methods for training SPNs have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present the first discriminative training algorithms for SPNs, combining the high accuracy of the former with the representational power and tractability of the latter. We show that the class of tractable discriminative SPNs is broader than the class of tractable generative ones, and propose an efficient backpropagation-style algorithm for computing the gradient of the conditional log likelihood. Standard gradient descent suffers from the diffusion problem, but networks with many layers can be learned reliably using "hard" gradient descent, where marginal inference is replaced by MPE inference (i.e., inferring the most probable state of the non-evidence variables). The resulting updates have a simple and intuitive form. We test discriminative SPNs on standard image classification tasks. We obtain the best results to date on the CIFAR-10 dataset, using fewer features than prior methods with an SPN architecture that learns local image structure discriminatively. We also report the highest published test accuracy on STL-10 even though we only use the labeled portion of the dataset.