Ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are ubiquitous in various fields, from finance to genomics. Despite their prevalence, the question of the efficient tuning of ensemble parameters has received relatively little attention. This paper introduces a cross-validation method, ECV (Extrapolated Cross-Validation), for tuning the ensemble and subsample sizes in randomized ensembles. Our method builds on two primary ingredients: initial estimators for small ensemble sizes using out-of-bag errors and a novel risk extrapolation technique that leverages the structure of prediction risk decomposition. By establishing uniform consistency of our risk extrapolation technique over ensemble and subsample sizes, we show that ECV yields $\delta$-optimal (with respect to the oracle-tuned risk) ensembles for squared prediction risk. Our theory accommodates general ensemble predictors, only requires mild moment assumptions, and allows for high-dimensional regimes where the feature dimension grows with the sample size. As a practical case study, we employ ECV to predict surface protein abundances from gene expressions in single-cell multiomics using random forests. In comparison to sample-split cross-validation and $K$-fold cross-validation, ECV achieves higher accuracy avoiding sample splitting. At the same time, its computational cost is considerably lower owing to the use of the risk extrapolation technique. Additional numerical results validate the finite-sample accuracy of ECV for several common ensemble predictors under a computational constraint on the maximum ensemble size.

Machine-Learned Likelihoods (MLL) combines machine-learning classification techniques with likelihood-based inference tests to estimate the experimental sensitivity of high-dimensional data sets. We extend the MLL method by including Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) to avoid binning the classifier output to extract the resulting one-dimensional signal and background probability density functions. We first test our method on toy models generated with multivariate Gaussian distributions, where the true probability distribution functions are known. Later, we apply the method to two cases of interest at the LHC: a search for exotic Higgs bosons, and a $Z'$ boson decaying into lepton pairs. In contrast to physical-based quantities, the typical fluctuations of the ML outputs give non-smooth probability distributions for pure-signal and pure-background samples. The non-smoothness is propagated into the density estimation due to the good performance and flexibility of the KDE method. We study its impact on the final significance computation, and we compare the results using the average of several independent ML output realizations, which allows us to obtain smoother distributions. We conclude that the significance estimation turns out to be not sensible to this issue.

Daily monitoring of stress is a critical component of maintaining optimal physical and mental health. Physiological signals and contextual information have recently emerged as promising indicators for detecting instances of heightened stress. Nonetheless, developing a real-time monitoring system that utilizes both physiological and contextual data to anticipate stress levels in everyday settings while also gathering stress labels from participants represents a significant challenge. We present a monitoring system that objectively tracks daily stress levels by utilizing both physiological and contextual data in a daily-life environment. Additionally, we have integrated a smart labeling approach to optimize the ecological momentary assessment (EMA) collection, which is required for building machine learning models for stress detection. We propose a three-tier Internet-of-Things-based system architecture to address the challenges. We utilized a cross-validation technique to accurately estimate the performance of our stress models. We achieved the F1-score of 70\% with a Random Forest classifier using both PPG and contextual data, which is considered an acceptable score in models built for everyday settings. Whereas using PPG data alone, the highest F1-score achieved is approximately 56\%, emphasizing the significance of incorporating both PPG and contextual data in stress detection tasks.

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is a prevalent orthopedic condition in clinical practice. Inertial measurement unit sensors (IMUs) are an effective tool for monitoring and assessing gait impairment in patients with lumbar disc herniation (LDH). However, the current gait assessment of LDH focuses solely on single-source acceleration signal data, without considering the diversity of sensor data. It also overlooks the individual differences in motor function deterioration between the healthy and affected lower limbs in patients with LDH. To address this issue, we developed an LDH gait feature model that relies on multi-source adaptive Kalman data fusion of acceleration and angular velocity. We utilized an adaptive Kalman data fusion algorithm for acceleration and angular velocity to estimate the attitude angle and segment the gait phase. Two Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) were used to analyze the gait characteristics of patients with lumbar disc issues and healthy individuals. This analysis included 12 gait characteristics, such as gait spatiotemporal parameters, kinematic parameters, and expansibility index numbers. Statistical methods were employed to analyze the characteristic model and confirm the biological differences between the healthy affected side of LDH and healthy subjects. Finally, a classifier based on feature engineering was utilized to classify the gait patterns of the affected side of patients with lumbar disc disease and healthy subjects. This approach achieved a classification accuracy of 95.50%, enhancing the recognition of LDH and healthy gait patterns. It also provided effective gait feature sets and methods for assessing LDH clinically.

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely employed, recent research has demonstrated the limitations of using sequence-level probability estimates given by LLMs as reliable indicators of generation quality. Conversely, LLMs have demonstrated strong calibration at the token level, particularly when it comes to choosing correct answers in multiple-choice questions or evaluating true/false statements. In this work, we reformulate open-ended generation tasks into token-level prediction tasks, and leverage LLMs' superior calibration at the token level. We instruct an LLM to self-evaluate its answers, employing either a multi-way comparison or a point-wise evaluation approach, with the option to include a ``None of the above'' option to express the model's uncertainty explicitly. We benchmark a range of scoring methods based on self-evaluation and evaluate their performance in selective generation using TruthfulQA and TL;DR. Through experiments with PaLM-2 and GPT-3, we demonstrate that self-evaluation based scores not only improve accuracy, but also correlate better with the overall quality of generated content.

The ongoing biodiversity crisis, driven by factors such as land-use change and global warming, emphasizes the need for effective ecological monitoring methods. Acoustic monitoring of biodiversity has emerged as an important monitoring tool. Detecting human voices in soundscape monitoring projects is useful both for analysing human disturbance and for privacy filtering. Despite significant strides in deep learning in recent years, the deployment of large neural networks on compact devices poses challenges due to memory and latency constraints. Our approach focuses on leveraging knowledge distillation techniques to design efficient, lightweight student models for speech detection in bioacoustics. In particular, we employed the MobileNetV3-Small-Pi model to create compact yet effective student architectures to compare against the larger EcoVAD teacher model, a well-regarded voice detection architecture in eco-acoustic monitoring. The comparative analysis included examining various configurations of the MobileNetV3-Small-Pi derived student models to identify optimal performance. Additionally, a thorough evaluation of different distillation techniques was conducted to ascertain the most effective method for model selection. Our findings revealed that the distilled models exhibited comparable performance to the EcoVAD teacher model, indicating a promising approach to overcoming computational barriers for real-time ecological monitoring.

Assessing the reliability of perception models to covariate shifts and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles. By nature of the task, however, the relevant data is difficult to collect and annotate. In this paper, we challenge cutting-edge generative models to automatically synthesize data for assessing reliability in semantic segmentation. By fine-tuning Stable Diffusion, we perform zero-shot generation of synthetic data in OOD domains or inpainted with OOD objects. Synthetic data is employed to provide an initial assessment of pretrained segmenters, thereby offering insights into their performance when confronted with real edge cases. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate a high correlation between the performance on synthetic data and the performance on real OOD data, showing the validity approach. Furthermore, we illustrate how synthetic data can be utilized to enhance the calibration and OOD detection capabilities of segmenters.

We present the Wildland-fire Infrared Thermal (WIT-UAS) dataset for long-wave infrared sensing of crew and vehicle assets amidst prescribed wildland fire environments. While such a dataset is crucial for safety monitoring in wildland fire applications, to the authors' awareness, no such dataset focusing on assets near fire is publicly available. Presumably, this is due to the barrier to entry of collaborating with fire management personnel. We present two related data subsets: WIT-UAS-ROS consists of full ROS bag files containing sensor and robot data of UAS flight over the fire, and WIT-UAS-Image contains hand-labeled long-wave infrared (LWIR) images extracted from WIT-UAS-ROS. Our dataset is the first to focus on asset detection in a wildland fire environment. We show that thermal detection models trained without fire data frequently detect false positives by classifying fire as people. By adding our dataset to training, we show that the false positive rate is reduced significantly. Yet asset detection in wildland fire environments is still significantly more challenging than detection in urban environments, due to dense obscuring trees, greater heat variation, and overbearing thermal signal of the fire. We publicize this dataset to encourage the community to study more advanced models to tackle this challenging environment. The dataset, code and pretrained models are available at \url{https://github.com/castacks/WIT-UAS-Dataset}.

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. However, the conventional discriminative deep learning classifiers produce uncalibrated closed-set predictions for OOD data. A more robust classifiers with the uncertainty estimation typically require a potentially unavailable OOD dataset for outlier exposure training, or a considerable amount of additional memory and compute to build ensemble models. In this work, we improve on uncertainty estimation without extra OOD data or additional inference costs using an alternative Split-Ensemble method. Specifically, we propose a novel subtask-splitting ensemble training objective, where a common multiclass classification task is split into several complementary subtasks. Then, each subtask's training data can be considered as OOD to the other subtasks. Diverse submodels can therefore be trained on each subtask with OOD-aware objectives. The subtask-splitting objective enables us to share low-level features across submodels to avoid parameter and computational overheads. In particular, we build a tree-like Split-Ensemble architecture by performing iterative splitting and pruning from a shared backbone model, where each branch serves as a submodel corresponding to a subtask. This leads to improved accuracy and uncertainty estimation across submodels under a fixed ensemble computation budget. Empirical study with ResNet-18 backbone shows Split-Ensemble, without additional computation cost, improves accuracy over a single model by 0.8%, 1.8%, and 25.5% on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet, respectively. OOD detection for the same backbone and in-distribution datasets surpasses a single model baseline by, correspondingly, 2.2%, 8.1%, and 29.6% mean AUROC. Codes will be publicly available at https://antonioo-c.github.io/projects/split-ensemble

Signal peptide (SP) is a short peptide located in the N-terminus of proteins. It is essential to target and transfer transmembrane and secreted proteins to correct positions. Compared with traditional experimental methods to identify signal peptides, computational methods are faster and more efficient, which are more practical for analyzing thousands or even millions of protein sequences, especially for metagenomic data. Here we present Unbiased Organism-agnostic Signal Peptide Network (USPNet), a signal peptide classification and cleavage site prediction deep learning method that takes advantage of protein language models. We propose to apply label distribution-aware margin loss to handle data imbalance problems and use evolutionary information of protein to enrich representation and overcome species information dependence.