This paper presents a systematic literature review (SLR) on the explainability and interpretability of machine learning (ML) models within the context of predictive process mining, using the PRISMA framework. Given the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and ML systems, understanding the "black-box" nature of these technologies has become increasingly critical. Focusing specifically on the domain of process mining, this paper delves into the challenges of interpreting ML models trained with complex business process data. We differentiate between intrinsically interpretable models and those that require post-hoc explanation techniques, providing a comprehensive overview of the current methodologies and their applications across various application domains. Through a rigorous bibliographic analysis, this research offers a detailed synthesis of the state of explainability and interpretability in predictive process mining, identifying key trends, challenges, and future directions. Our findings aim to equip researchers and practitioners with a deeper understanding of how to develop and implement more trustworthy, transparent, and effective intelligent systems for predictive process analytics.

Twitter as one of the most popular social networks, offers a means for communication and online discourse, which unfortunately has been the target of bots and fake accounts, leading to the manipulation and spreading of false information. Towards this end, we gather a challenging, multilingual dataset of social discourse on Twitter, originating from 9M users regarding the recent Russo-Ukrainian war, in order to detect the bot accounts and the conversation involving them. We collect the ground truth for our dataset through the Twitter API suspended accounts collection, containing approximately 343K of bot accounts and 8M of normal users. Additionally, we use a dataset provided by Botometer-V3 with 1,777 Varol, 483 German accounts, and 1,321 US accounts. Besides the publicly available datasets, we also manage to collect 2 independent datasets around popular discussion topics of the 2022 energy crisis and the 2022 conspiracy discussions. Both of the datasets were labeled according to the Twitter suspension mechanism. We build a novel ML model for bot detection using the state-of-the-art XGBoost model. We combine the model with a high volume of labeled tweets according to the Twitter suspension mechanism ground truth. This requires a limited set of profile features allowing labeling of the dataset in different time periods from the collection, as it is independent of the Twitter API. In comparison with Botometer our methodology achieves an average 11% higher ROC-AUC score over two real-case scenario datasets.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Despite numerous years of research into the merits and trade-offs of various model selection criteria, obtaining robust results that elucidate the behavior of cross-validation remains a challenging endeavor. In this paper, we highlight the inherent limitations of cross-validation when employed to discern the structure of a Gaussian graphical model. We provide finite-sample bounds on the probability that the Lasso estimator for the neighborhood of a node within a Gaussian graphical model, optimized using a prediction oracle, misidentifies the neighborhood. Our results pertain to both undirected and directed acyclic graphs, encompassing general, sparse covariance structures. To support our theoretical findings, we conduct an empirical investigation of this inconsistency by contrasting our outcomes with other commonly used information criteria through an extensive simulation study. Given that many algorithms designed to learn the structure of graphical models require hyperparameter selection, the precise calibration of this hyperparameter is paramount for accurately estimating the inherent structure. Consequently, our observations shed light on this widely recognized practical challenge.

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in high-dimensional problems. A GPN is a generative model that, given a prior distribution over functions, approximates the posterior distribution directly by regularizing the network towards samples from the prior. We prove theoretically that our method indeed approximates the Bayesian posterior and show empirically that it improves epistemic uncertainty estimation and scalability over competing methods.

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

Nature is an amorphous concept. Yet, it is essential for the planet's well-being to understand how the economy interacts with it. To address the growing demand for information on corporate nature disclosure, we provide datasets and classifiers to detect nature communication by companies. We ground our approach in the guidelines of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). Particularly, we focus on the specific dimensions of water, forest, and biodiversity. For each dimension, we create an expert-annotated dataset with 2,200 text samples and train classifier models. Furthermore, we show that nature communication is more prevalent in hotspot areas and directly effected industries like agriculture and utilities. Our approach is the first to respond to calls to assess corporate nature communication on a large scale.

Potassium disorders are generally asymptomatic, potentially lethal, and common in patients with renal or cardiac disease. The morphology of the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is very sensitive to the changes in potassium ions, so ECG has a high potential for detecting dyskalemias before laboratory results. In this regard, this paper introduces a new system for ECG-based potassium measurement. The proposed system consists of three main steps. First, cohort selection & data labeling were carried out by using a 5- minute interval between ECGs and potassium measurements and defining three labels: hypokalemia, normal, and hyperkalemia. After that, feature extraction & selection were performed. The extracted features are RR interval, PR interval, QRS duration, QT interval, QTc interval, P axis, QRS axis, T axis, and ACCI. Kruskal-Wallis technique was also used to assess the importance of the features and to select discriminative ones. Finally, an ANFIS model based on FCM clustering (FCM-ANFIS) was designed based on the selected features. The used database is ECG-ViEW II. Results showed that T axis compared with other features has a significant relationship with potassium levels (P<0.01, r=0.62). The absolute error of FCM-ANFIS is 0.4+-0.3 mM, its mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 9.99%, and its r-squared value is 0.74. Its classification accuracy is 85.71%. In detecting hypokalemia and hyperkalemia, the sensitivities are 60% and 80%, respectively, and the specificities are 100% and 97.3%, respectively. This research has shed light on the design of noninvasive instruments to measure potassium concentration and to detect dyskalemias, thereby reducing cardiac events.

Real-time analytics and decision-making require online anomaly detection (OAD) to handle drifts in data streams efficiently and effectively. Unfortunately, existing approaches are often constrained by their limited detection capacity and slow adaptation to evolving data streams, inhibiting their efficacy and efficiency in handling concept drift, which is a major challenge in evolving data streams. In this paper, we introduce METER, a novel dynamic concept adaptation framework that introduces a new paradigm for OAD. METER addresses concept drift by first training a base detection model on historical data to capture recurring central concepts, and then learning to dynamically adapt to new concepts in data streams upon detecting concept drift. Particularly, METER employs a novel dynamic concept adaptation technique that leverages a hypernetwork to dynamically generate the parameter shift of the base detection model, providing a more effective and efficient solution than conventional retraining or fine-tuning approaches. Further, METER incorporates a lightweight drift detection controller, underpinned by evidential deep learning, to support robust and interpretable concept drift detection. We conduct an extensive experimental evaluation, and the results show that METER significantly outperforms existing OAD approaches in various application scenarios.

The aim of the work presented in this paper is to develop and evaluate an integrated system that provides automated lecture style evaluation, allowing teachers to get instant feedback related to the goodness of their lecturing style. The proposed system aims to promote improvement of lecture quality, that could upgrade the overall student learning experience. The proposed application utilizes specific measurable biometric characteristics, such as facial expressions, body activity, speech rate and intonation, hand movement, and facial pose, extracted from a video showing the lecturer from the audience point of view. Measurable biometric features extracted during a lecture are combined to provide teachers with a score reflecting lecture style quality both at frame rate and by providing lecture quality metrics for the whole lecture. The acceptance of the proposed lecture style evaluation system was evaluated by chief education officers, teachers and students regarding the functionality, usefulness of the application, and possible improvements. The results indicate that participants found the application novel and useful in providing automated feedback regarding lecture quality. Furthermore, the performance evaluation of the proposed system was compared with the performance of humans in the task of lecture style evaluation. Results indicate that the proposed system not only achieves similar performance to human observers, but in some cases, it outperforms them.