Despite a sea of interpretability methods that can produce plausible explanations, the field has also empirically seen many failure cases of such methods. In light of these results, it remains unclear for practitioners how to use these methods and choose between them in a principled way. In this paper, we show that for moderately rich model classes (easily satisfied by neural networks), any feature attribution method that is complete and linear -- for example, Integrated Gradients and SHAP -- can provably fail to improve on random guessing for inferring model behaviour. Our results apply to common end-tasks such as characterizing local model behaviour, identifying spurious features, and algorithmic recourse. One takeaway from our work is the importance of concretely defining end-tasks: once such an end-task is defined, a simple and direct approach of repeated model evaluations can outperform many other complex feature attribution methods.

The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and practitioners. This is especially critical in medical diagnosis and drug discovery areas, where reliable predictions directly impact research quality and patient health. In this paper, we proposed incorporating uncertainty quantification into clinical trial outcome predictions. Our main goal is to enhance the model's ability to discern nuanced differences, thereby significantly improving its overall performance. We have adopted a selective classification approach to fulfill our objective, integrating it seamlessly with the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT), which is at the forefront of clinical trial prediction modeling. Selective classification, encompassing a spectrum of methods for uncertainty quantification, empowers the model to withhold decision-making in the face of samples marked by ambiguity or low confidence, thereby amplifying the accuracy of predictions for the instances it chooses to classify. A series of comprehensive experiments demonstrate that incorporating selective classification into clinical trial predictions markedly enhances the model's performance, as evidenced by significant upticks in pivotal metrics such as PR-AUC, F1, ROC-AUC, and overall accuracy. Specifically, the proposed method achieved 32.37\%, 21.43\%, and 13.27\% relative improvement on PR-AUC over the base model (HINT) in phase I, II, and III trial outcome prediction, respectively. When predicting phase III, our method reaches 0.9022 PR-AUC scores. These findings illustrate the robustness and prospective utility of this strategy within the area of clinical trial predictions, potentially setting a new benchmark in the field.

This research introduces a sophisticated transfer learning model based on Google's MobileNetV2 for breast cancer tumor classification into normal, benign, and malignant categories, utilizing a dataset of 1576 ultrasound images (265 normal, 891 benign, 420 malignant). The model achieves an accuracy of 0.82, precision of 0.83, recall of 0.81, ROC-AUC of 0.94, PR-AUC of 0.88, and MCC of 0.74. It examines image intensity distributions and misclassification errors, offering improvements for future applications. Addressing dataset imbalances, the study ensures a generalizable model. This work, using a dataset from Baheya Hospital, Cairo, Egypt, compiled by Walid Al-Dhabyani et al., emphasizes MobileNetV2's potential in medical imaging, aiming to improve diagnostic precision in oncology. Additionally, the paper explores Streamlit-based deployment for real-time tumor classification, demonstrating MobileNetV2's applicability in medical imaging and setting a benchmark for future research in oncology diagnostics.

Hard negative mining has shown effective in enhancing self-supervised contrastive learning (CL) on diverse data types, including graph CL (GCL). The existing hardness-aware CL methods typically treat negative instances that are most similar to the anchor instance as hard negatives, which helps improve the CL performance, especially on image data. However, this approach often fails to identify the hard negatives but leads to many false negatives on graph data. This is mainly due to that the learned graph representations are not sufficiently discriminative due to oversmooth representations and/or non-independent and identically distributed (non-i.i.d.) issues in graph data. To tackle this problem, this article proposes a novel approach that builds a discriminative model on collective affinity information (i.e., two sets of pairwise affinities between the negative instances and the anchor instance) to mine hard negatives in GCL. In particular, the proposed approach evaluates how confident/uncertain the discriminative model is about the affinity of each negative instance to an anchor instance to determine its hardness weight relative to the anchor instance. This uncertainty information is then incorporated into the existing GCL loss functions via a weighting term to enhance their performance. The enhanced GCL is theoretically grounded that the resulting GCL loss is equivalent to a triplet loss with an adaptive margin being exponentially proportional to the learned uncertainty of each negative instance. Extensive experiments on ten graph datasets show that our approach does the following: 1) consistently enhances different state-of-the-art (SOTA) GCL methods in both graph and node classification tasks and 2) significantly improves their robustness against adversarial attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/mala-lab/AUGCL.

Due to their unsupervised training and uncertainty estimation, deep Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become powerful tools for reconstruction-based Time Series Anomaly Detection (TSAD). Existing VAE-based TSAD methods, either statistical or deep, tune meta-priors to estimate the likelihood probability for effectively capturing spatiotemporal dependencies in the data. However, these methods confront the challenge of inherent data scarcity, which is often the case in anomaly detection tasks. Such scarcity easily leads to latent holes, discontinuous regions in latent space, resulting in non-robust reconstructions on these discontinuous spaces. We propose a novel generative framework that combines VAEs with self-supervised learning (SSL) to address this issue.

Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we could have taken preventive measures. Therefore, driven by such motivation, we use advanced machine learning techniques, including Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, to predict any potential market crashes mainly in the US market. Also, we would like to compare the performance of these methods and examine which model is better for forecasting US stock market crashes. We apply our models on the daily financial market data, which tend to be more responsive with higher reporting frequencies. We consider 75 explanatory variables, including general US stock market indexes, SP 500 sector indexes, as well as market indicators that can be used for the purpose of crisis prediction. Finally, we conclude, with selected classification metrics, that the Extreme Gradient Boosting method performs the best in predicting US stock market crisis events.

ADRD is technology has the potential to bolster the early detection of not only ranked as the sixth-leading cause of death in the MCI and AD. A 2019 study proposed that early detection of U.S., but the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the number AD would decrease healthcare costs, and improve quality of of deaths among those with AD (Alzheimer's_Association, life (Eikelboom et al., 2019). Studies have shown that MCI 2021). Symptoms of AD/ADRD usually begin with Mild can affect the patterns of speech, language, and face-to-face Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and include early onset memory communication in older adults (Liu et al., 2022a). There loss, cognitive decline, and impairments with verbal are several studies on using traditional Machine Learning language and visual/spatial perception. Approximately 12- (ML) approaches such as Decision Tree (Neelaveni 18% of people age 60 or older are living with MCI in the & Devasana, 2020; Davuluri1 & Rengaswamy, 2020) and U.S. Although older adults with MCI have the ability to K-means clustering (Davuluri1 & Rengaswamy, 2020) to independently perform most daily living activities such as detect AD with a human using collected demographic information eating, shopping, and bathing without help, the National (Neelaveni & Devasana, 2020) and MRI (Davuluri1 Institute on Aging (NIA) estimated that 10 to 20% of & Rengaswamy, 2020). Other researchers used Crossmodel subjects with MCI will develop dementia over a one-year Augmentation for automated detection of MCI from period (National_Institute_on_Aging, 2021).

Handwritten signature verification poses a formidable challenge in biometrics and document authenticity. The objective is to ascertain the authenticity of a provided handwritten signature, distinguishing between genuine and forged ones. This issue has many applications in sectors such as finance, legal documentation, and security. Currently, the field of computer vision and machine learning has made significant progress in the domain of handwritten signature verification. The outcomes, however, may be enhanced depending on the acquired findings, the structure of the datasets, and the used models. Four stages make up our suggested strategy. First, we collected a large dataset of 12600 images from 420 distinct individuals, and each individual has 30 signatures of a certain kind (All authors signatures are genuine). In the subsequent stage, the best features from each image were extracted using a deep learning model named MobileNetV2. During the feature selection step, three selectors neighborhood component analysis (NCA), Chi2, and mutual info (MI) were used to pull out 200, 300, 400, and 500 features, giving a total of 12 feature vectors. Finally, 12 results have been obtained by applying machine learning techniques such as SVM with kernels (rbf, poly, and linear), KNN, DT, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Naive Bayes. Without employing feature selection techniques, our suggested offline signature verification achieved a classification accuracy of 91.3%, whereas using the NCA feature selection approach with just 300 features it achieved a classification accuracy of 97.7%. High classification accuracy was achieved using the designed and suggested model, which also has the benefit of being a self-organized framework. Consequently, using the optimum minimally chosen features, the proposed method could identify the best model performance and result validation prediction vectors.

Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks pose a significant threat to the stability and reliability of online systems. Effective and early detection of such attacks is pivotal for safeguarding the integrity of networks. In this work, we introduce an enhanced approach for DDoS attack detection by leveraging the capabilities of Deep Residual Neural Networks (ResNets) coupled with synthetic oversampling techniques. Because of the inherent class imbalance in many cyber-security datasets, conventional methods often struggle with false negatives, misclassifying subtle DDoS patterns as benign. By applying the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) to the CICIDS dataset, we balance the representation of benign and malicious data points, enabling the model to better discern intricate patterns indicative of an attack. Our deep residual network, tailored for this specific task, further refines the detection process. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate that our approach achieves an accuracy of 99.98%, significantly outperforming traditional methods. This work underscores the potential of combining advanced data augmentation techniques with deep learning models to bolster cyber-security defenses.

Machine learning methods based on AdaBoost have been widely applied to various classification problems across many mission-critical applications including healthcare, law and finance. However, there is a growing concern about the unfairness and discrimination of data-driven classification models, which is inevitable for classical algorithms including AdaBoost. In order to achieve fair classification, a novel fair AdaBoost (FAB) approach is proposed that is an interpretable fairness-improving variant of AdaBoost. We mainly investigate binary classification problems and focus on the fairness of three different indicators (i.e., accuracy, false positive rate and false negative rate). By utilizing a fairness-aware reweighting technique for base classifiers, the proposed FAB approach can achieve fair classification while maintaining the advantage of AdaBoost with negligible sacrifice of predictive performance. In addition, a hyperparameter is introduced in FAB to show preferences for the fairness-accuracy trade-off. An upper bound for the target loss function that quantifies error rate and unfairness is theoretically derived for FAB, which provides a strict theoretical support for the fairness-improving methods designed for AdaBoost. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on three real-world datasets (i.e., Adult, COMPAS and HSLS) with respect to the three fairness indicators. The results are accordant with theoretic analyses, and show that (i) FAB significantly improves classification fairness at a small cost of accuracy compared with AdaBoost; and (ii) FAB outperforms state-of-the-art fair classification methods including equalized odds method, exponentiated gradient method, and disparate mistreatment method in terms of the fairness-accuracy trade-off.