The exponential growth in scientific publications poses a severe challenge for human researchers. It forces attention to more narrow sub-fields, which makes it challenging to discover new impactful research ideas and collaborations outside one's own field. While there are ways to predict a scientific paper's future citation counts, they need the research to be finished and the paper written, usually assessing impact long after the idea was conceived. Here we show how to predict the impact of onsets of ideas that have never been published by researchers. For that, we developed a large evolving knowledge graph built from more than 21 million scientific papers. It combines a semantic network created from the content of the papers and an impact network created from the historic citations of papers. Using machine learning, we can predict the dynamic of the evolving network into the future with high accuracy, and thereby the impact of new research directions. We envision that the ability to predict the impact of new ideas will be a crucial component of future artificial muses that can inspire new impactful and interesting scientific ideas.

The performance of machine learning classification algorithms are evaluated by estimating metrics, often from the confusion matrix, using training data and cross-validation. However, these do not prove that the best possible performance has been achieved. Fundamental limits to error rates can be estimated using information distance measures. To this end, the confusion matrix has been formulated to comply with the Chernoff-Stein Lemma. This links the error rates to the Kullback-Leibler divergences between the probability density functions describing the two classes. This leads to a key result that relates Cohen's Kappa to the Resistor Average Distance which is the parallel resistor combination of the two Kullback-Leibler divergences. The Resistor Average Distance has units of bits and is estimated from the same training data used by the classification algorithm, using kNN estimates of the KullBack-Leibler divergences. The classification algorithm gives the confusion matrix and Kappa. Theory and methods are discussed in detail and then applied to Monte Carlo data and real datasets. Four very different real datasets - Breast Cancer, Coronary Heart Disease, Bankruptcy, and Particle Identification - are analysed, with both continuous and discrete values, and their classification performance compared to the expected theoretical limit. In all cases this analysis shows that the algorithms could not have performed any better due to the underlying probability density functions for the two classes. Important lessons are learnt on how to predict the performance of algorithms for imbalanced data using training datasets that are approximately balanced. Machine learning is very powerful but classification performance ultimately depends on the quality of the data and the relevance of the variables to the problem.

Pre-trained language models have been successful in many scenarios. However, their usefulness in task-oriented dialogues is limited due to the intrinsic linguistic differences between general text and task-oriented dialogues. Current task-oriented dialogue pre-training methods rely on a contrastive framework, which faces challenges such as selecting true positives and hard negatives, as well as lacking diversity. In this paper, we propose a novel dialogue pre-training model called BootTOD. It learns task-oriented dialogue representations via a self-bootstrapping framework. Unlike contrastive counterparts, BootTOD aligns context and context+response representations and dismisses the requirements of contrastive pairs. BootTOD also uses multiple appropriate response targets to model the intrinsic one-to-many diversity of human conversations. Experimental results show that BootTOD outperforms strong TOD baselines on diverse downstream dialogue tasks.

In today's digital world, social media plays a significant role in facilitating communication and content sharing. However, the exponential rise in user-generated content has led to challenges in maintaining a respectful online environment. In some cases, users have taken advantage of anonymity in order to use harmful language, which can negatively affect the user experience and pose serious social problems. Recognizing the limitations of manual moderation, automatic detection systems have been developed to tackle this problem. Nevertheless, several obstacles persist, including the absence of a universal definition for harmful language, inadequate datasets across languages, the need for detailed annotation guideline, and most importantly, a comprehensive framework. This study aims to address these challenges by introducing, for the first time, a detailed framework adaptable to any language. This framework encompasses various aspects of harmful language detection. A key component of the framework is the development of a general and detailed annotation guideline. Additionally, the integration of sentiment analysis represents a novel approach to enhancing harmful language detection. Also, a definition of harmful language based on the review of different related concepts is presented. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, its implementation in a challenging low-resource language is conducted. We collected a Persian dataset and applied the annotation guideline for harmful detection and sentiment analysis. Next, we present baseline experiments utilizing machine and deep learning methods to set benchmarks. Results prove the framework's high performance, achieving an accuracy of 99.4% in offensive language detection and 66.2% in sentiment analysis.

Electric automation systems offer convenience and efficiency in controlling electrical circuits and devices. Traditionally, these systems rely on predefined commands for control, limiting flexibility and adaptability. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to augment automation by introducing intent-based user instruction classification using machine learning techniques. Our system represents user instructions as intents, allowing for dynamic control of electrical circuits without relying on predefined commands. Through a machine learning model trained on a labeled dataset of user instructions, our system classifies intents from user input, enabling a more intuitive and adaptable control scheme. We present the design and implementation of our intent-based electric automation system, detailing the development of the machine learning model for intent classification. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing user experience and expanding the capabilities of electric automation systems. Our work contributes to the advancement of smart technologies by providing a more seamless interaction between users and their environments.

In addition to enhancing traffic safety and facilitating prompt emergency response, traffic incident detection plays an indispensable role in intelligent transportation systems by providing real-time traffic status information. This enables the realization of intelligent traffic control and management. Previous research has identified that apart from employing advanced algorithmic models, the effectiveness of detection is also significantly influenced by challenges related to acquiring large datasets and addressing dataset imbalances. A hybrid model combining transformer and generative adversarial networks (GANs) is proposed to address these challenges. Experiments are conducted on four real datasets to validate the superiority of the transformer in traffic incident detection. Additionally, GANs are utilized to expand the dataset and achieve a balanced ratio of 1:4, 2:3, and 1:1. The proposed model is evaluated against the baseline model. The results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances the dataset size, balances the dataset, and improves the performance of traffic incident detection in various aspects.

Given the growing significance of reliable, trustworthy, and explainable machine learning, the requirement of uncertainty quantification for anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates ($\alpha$) without compromising the statistical power ($1-\beta$) of these systems can build trust and reduce costs related to false discoveries, particularly when follow-up procedures are expensive. Leveraging the principles of conformal prediction emerges as a promising approach for providing respective statistical guarantees by calibrating a model's uncertainty. This work introduces a novel framework for anomaly detection, termed cross-conformal anomaly detection, building upon well-known cross-conformal methods designed for prediction tasks. With that, it addresses a natural research gap by extending previous works in the context of inductive conformal anomaly detection, relying on the split-conformal approach for model calibration. Drawing on insights from conformal prediction, we demonstrate that the derived methods for calculating cross-conformal $p$-values strike a practical compromise between statistical efficiency (full-conformal) and computational efficiency (split-conformal) for uncertainty-quantified anomaly detection on benchmark datasets.

As wearable devices become increasingly miniaturized and powerful, a new opportunity arises for instant and dynamic device-to-device collaboration and human-to-device interaction. However, this progress presents a unique challenge: these minimalist wearables lack inherent mechanisms for real-time authentication, posing significant risks to data privacy and overall security. To address this, we introduce Proteus that realizes an innovative concept of time-bound contextual bio-IDs, which are generated from on-device sensor data and embedded into a common latent space. These bio-IDs act as a time-bound unique user identifier that can be used to identify the wearer in a certain context. Proteus enables dynamic and contextual device collaboration as well as robust human-to-device interaction. Our evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, particularly in the context of minimalist wearables.

Education plays a pivotal role in alleviating poverty, driving economic growth, and empowering individuals, thereby significantly influencing societal and personal development. However, the persistent issue of school dropout poses a significant challenge, with its effects extending beyond the individual. While previous research has employed machine learning for dropout classification, these studies often suffer from a short-term focus, relying on data collected only a few years into the study period. This study expanded the modeling horizon by utilizing a 13-year longitudinal dataset, encompassing data from kindergarten to Grade 9. Our methodology incorporated a comprehensive range of parameters, including students' academic and cognitive skills, motivation, behavior, well-being, and officially recorded dropout data. The machine learning models developed in this study demonstrated notable classification ability, achieving a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.61 with data up to Grade 6 and an improved AUC of 0.65 with data up to Grade 9. Further data collection and independent correlational and causal analyses are crucial. In future iterations, such models may have the potential to proactively support educators' processes and existing protocols for identifying at-risk students, thereby potentially aiding in the reinvention of student retention and success strategies and ultimately contributing to improved educational outcomes.

Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAVs) are becoming a crucial tool in modern warfare, primarily due to their cost-effectiveness, risk reduction, and ability to perform a wider range of activities. The use of autonomous UAVs to conduct strike missions against highly valuable targets is the focus of this research. Due to developments in ledger technology, smart contracts, and machine learning, such activities formerly carried out by professionals or remotely flown UAVs are now feasible. Our study provides the first in-depth analysis of challenges and preliminary solutions for successful implementation of an autonomous UAV mission. Specifically, we identify challenges that have to be overcome and propose possible technical solutions for the challenges identified. We also derive analytical expressions for the success probability of an autonomous UAV mission, and describe a machine learning model to train the UAV.