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 Performance Analysis


Out-of-Distribution Detection via Deep Multi-Comprehension Ensemble

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent research underscores the pivotal role of the Out-of-Distribution (OOD) feature representation field scale in determining the efficacy of models in OOD detection. Consequently, the adoption of model ensembles has emerged as a prominent strategy to augment this feature representation field, capitalizing on anticipated model diversity. However, our introduction of novel qualitative and quantitative model ensemble evaluation methods, specifically Loss Basin/Barrier Visualization and the Self-Coupling Index, reveals a critical drawback in existing ensemble methods. We find that these methods incorporate weights that are affine-transformable, exhibiting limited variability and thus failing to achieve the desired diversity in feature representation. To address this limitation, we elevate the dimensions of traditional model ensembles, incorporating various factors such as different weight initializations, data holdout, etc., into distinct supervision tasks. This innovative approach, termed Multi-Comprehension (MC) Ensemble, leverages diverse training tasks to generate distinct comprehensions of the data and labels, thereby extending the feature representation field. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of the MC Ensemble strategy in OOD detection compared to both the naive Deep Ensemble method and a standalone model of comparable size. This underscores the effectiveness of our proposed approach in enhancing the model's capability to detect instances outside its training distribution.


On The Effectiveness of One-Class Support Vector Machine in Different Defect Prediction Scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Defect prediction aims at identifying software components that are likely to cause faults before a software is made available to the end-user. To date, this task has been modeled as a two-class classification problem, however its nature also allows it to be formulated as a one-class classification task. Previous studies show that One-Class Support Vector Machine (OCSVM) can outperform two-class classifiers for within-project defect prediction, however it is not effective when employed at a finer granularity (i.e., commit-level defect prediction). In this paper, we further investigate whether learning from one class only is sufficient to produce effective defect prediction model in two other different scenarios (i.e., granularity), namely cross-version and cross-project defect prediction models, as well as replicate the previous work at within-project granularity for completeness. Our empirical results confirm that OCSVM performance remain low at different granularity levels, that is, it is outperformed by the two-class Random Forest (RF) classifier for both cross-version and cross-project defect prediction. While, we cannot conclude that OCSVM is the best classifier, our results still show interesting findings. While OCSVM does not outperform RF, it still achieves performance superior to its two-class counterpart (i.e., SVM) as well as other two-class classifiers studied herein. We also observe that OCSVM is more suitable for both cross-version and cross-project defect prediction, rather than for within-project defect prediction, thus suggesting it performs better with heterogeneous data. We encourage further research on one-class classifiers for defect prediction as these techniques may serve as an alternative when data about defective modules is scarce or not available.


Integrated path stability selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stability selection is a widely used method for improving the performance of feature selection algorithms. However, stability selection has been found to be highly conservative, resulting in low sensitivity. Further, the theoretical bound on the expected number of false positives, E(FP), is relatively loose, making it difficult to know how many false positives to expect in practice. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for stability selection based on integrating the stability paths rather than maximizing over them. This yields a tighter bound on E(FP), resulting in a feature selection criterion that has higher sensitivity in practice and is better calibrated in terms of matching the target E(FP). Our proposed method requires the same amount of computation as the original stability selection algorithm, and only requires the user to specify one input parameter, a target value for E(FP). We provide theoretical bounds on performance, and demonstrate the method on simulations and real data from cancer gene expression studies.


Supervised Learning via Ensembles of Diverse Functional Representations: the Functional Voting Classifier

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many conventional statistical and machine learning methods face challenges when applied directly to high dimensional temporal observations. In recent decades, Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has gained widespread popularity as a framework for modeling and analyzing data that are, by their nature, functions in the domain of time. Although supervised classification has been extensively explored in recent decades within the FDA literature, ensemble learning of functional classifiers has only recently emerged as a topic of significant interest. Thus, the latter subject presents unexplored facets and challenges from various statistical perspectives. The focal point of this paper lies in the realm of ensemble learning for functional data and aims to show how different functional data representations can be used to train ensemble members and how base model predictions can be combined through majority voting. The so-called Functional Voting Classifier (FVC) is proposed to demonstrate how different functional representations leading to augmented diversity can increase predictive accuracy. Many real-world datasets from several domains are used to display that the FVC can significantly enhance performance compared to individual models. The framework presented provides a foundation for voting ensembles with functional data and can stimulate a highly encouraging line of research in the FDA context.


Application of the NIST AI Risk Management Framework to Surveillance Technology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study offers an in-depth analysis of the application and implications of the National Institute of Standards and Technology's AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF) within the domain of surveillance technologies, particularly facial recognition technology. Given the inherently high-risk and consequential nature of facial recognition systems, our research emphasizes the critical need for a structured approach to risk management in this sector. The paper presents a detailed case study demonstrating the utility of the NIST AI RMF in identifying and mitigating risks that might otherwise remain unnoticed in these technologies. Our primary objective is to develop a comprehensive risk management strategy that advances the practice of responsible AI utilization in feasible, scalable ways. We propose a six-step process tailored to the specific challenges of surveillance technology that aims to produce a more systematic and effective risk management practice. This process emphasizes continual assessment and improvement to facilitate companies in managing AI-related risks more robustly and ensuring ethical and responsible deployment of AI systems. These insights contribute to the evolving discourse on AI governance and risk management, highlighting areas for future refinement and development in frameworks like the NIST AI RMF. Surveillance technologies are increasingly widespread in both public and private spaces, often being developed and deployed with little engagement from relevant stakeholders. Most notably, the individuals subject to the surveillance technology are rarely included in creating that technology. As an illustration of both prominence and controversy, one may consider the AI system developed by Clearview AI Inc. to monitor and record the activities of individuals and groups, including rapid face identification. Their system has come under close scrutiny for the ways that the organization scraped images and training data from the Internet; the company is currently under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for scraping billions of images from social media sites without users' consent [1, 2], and other companies like Facebook, Twitter, Venmo, and Google have issued cease and desist letters citing violations of their terms of service [3].


Analyzing Male Domestic Violence through Exploratory Data Analysis and Explainable Machine Learning Insights

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Domestic violence, which is often perceived as a gendered issue among female victims, has gained increasing attention in recent years. Despite this focus, male victims of domestic abuse remain primarily overlooked, particularly in Bangladesh. Our study represents a pioneering exploration of the underexplored realm of male domestic violence (MDV) within the Bangladeshi context, shedding light on its prevalence, patterns, and underlying factors. Existing literature predominantly emphasizes female victimization in domestic violence scenarios, leading to an absence of research on male victims. We collected data from the major cities of Bangladesh and conducted exploratory data analysis to understand the underlying dynamics. We implemented 11 traditional machine learning models with default and optimized hyperparameters, 2 deep learning, and 4 ensemble models. Despite various approaches, CatBoost has emerged as the top performer due to its native support for categorical features, efficient handling of missing values, and robust regularization techniques, achieving 76% accuracy. In contrast, other models achieved accuracy rates in the range of 58-75%. The eXplainable AI techniques, SHAP and LIME, were employed to gain insights into the decision-making of black-box machine learning models. By shedding light on this topic and identifying factors associated with domestic abuse, the study contributes to identifying groups of people vulnerable to MDV, raising awareness, and informing policies and interventions aimed at reducing MDV. Our findings challenge the prevailing notion that domestic abuse primarily affects women, thus emphasizing the need for tailored interventions and support systems for male victims. ML techniques enhance the analysis and understanding of the data, providing valuable insights for developing effective strategies to combat this pressing social issue.


InstaSynth: Opportunities and Challenges in Generating Synthetic Instagram Data with ChatGPT for Sponsored Content Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) raise concerns about lowering the cost of generating texts that could be used for unethical or illegal purposes, especially on social media. This paper investigates the promise of such models to help enforce legal requirements related to the disclosure of sponsored content online. We investigate the use of LLMs for generating synthetic Instagram captions with two objectives: The first objective (fidelity) is to produce realistic synthetic datasets. For this, we implement content-level and network-level metrics to assess whether synthetic captions are realistic. The second objective (utility) is to create synthetic data that is useful for sponsored content detection. For this, we evaluate the effectiveness of the generated synthetic data for training classifiers to identify undisclosed advertisements on Instagram. Our investigations show that the objectives of fidelity and utility may conflict and that prompt engineering is a useful but insufficient strategy. Additionally, we find that while individual synthetic posts may appear realistic, collectively they lack diversity, topic connectivity, and realistic user interaction patterns.


Cascading Blackout Severity Prediction with Statistically-Augmented Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Higher variability in grid conditions, resulting from growing renewable penetration and increased incidence of extreme weather events, has increased the difficulty of screening for scenarios that may lead to catastrophic cascading failures. Traditional power-flow-based tools for assessing cascading blackout risk are too slow to properly explore the space of possible failures and load/generation patterns. We add to the growing literature of faster graph-neural-network (GNN)-based techniques, developing two novel techniques for the estimation of blackout magnitude from initial grid conditions. First we propose several methods for employing an initial classification step to filter out safe "non blackout" scenarios prior to magnitude estimation. Second, using insights from the statistical properties of cascading blackouts, we propose a method for facilitating non-local message passing in our GNN models. We validate these two approaches on a large simulated dataset, and show the potential of both to increase blackout size estimation performance.


Empirical investigation of multi-source cross-validation in clinical machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Traditionally, machine learning-based clinical prediction models have been trained and evaluated on patient data from a single source, such as a hospital. Cross-validation methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of such models on new patients originating from the same source, by repeated random splitting of the data. However, such estimates tend to be highly overoptimistic when compared to accuracy obtained from deploying models to sources not represented in the dataset, such as a new hospital. The increasing availability of multi-source medical datasets provides new opportunities for obtaining more comprehensive and realistic evaluations of expected accuracy through source-level cross-validation designs. In this study, we present a systematic empirical evaluation of standard K-fold cross-validation and leave-source-out cross-validation methods in a multi-source setting. We consider the task of electrocardiogram based cardiovascular disease classification, combining and harmonizing the openly available PhysioNet CinC Challenge 2021 and the Shandong Provincial Hospital datasets for our study. Our results show that K-fold cross-validation, both on single-source and multi-source data, systemically overestimates prediction performance when the end goal is to generalize to new sources. Leave-source-out cross-validation provides more reliable performance estimates, having close to zero bias though larger variability. The evaluation highlights the dangers of obtaining misleading cross-validation results on medical data and demonstrates how these issues can be mitigated when having access to multi-source data.


RG-CAT: Detection Pipeline and Catalogue of Radio Galaxies in the EMU Pilot Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present source detection and catalogue construction pipelines to build the first catalogue of radio galaxies from the 270 $\rm deg^2$ pilot survey of the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU-PS) conducted with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. The detection pipeline uses Gal-DINO computer-vision networks (Gupta et al., 2024) to predict the categories of radio morphology and bounding boxes for radio sources, as well as their potential infrared host positions. The Gal-DINO network is trained and evaluated on approximately 5,000 visually inspected radio galaxies and their infrared hosts, encompassing both compact and extended radio morphologies. We find that the Intersection over Union (IoU) for the predicted and ground truth bounding boxes is larger than 0.5 for 99% of the radio sources, and 98% of predicted host positions are within $3^{\prime \prime}$ of the ground truth infrared host in the evaluation set. The catalogue construction pipeline uses the predictions of the trained network on the radio and infrared image cutouts based on the catalogue of radio components identified using the Selavy source finder algorithm. Confidence scores of the predictions are then used to prioritize Selavy components with higher scores and incorporate them first into the catalogue. This results in identifications for a total of 211,625 radio sources, with 201,211 classified as compact and unresolved. The remaining 10,414 are categorized as extended radio morphologies, including 582 FR-I, 5,602 FR-II, 1,494 FR-x (uncertain whether FR-I or FR-II), 2,375 R (single-peak resolved) radio galaxies, and 361 with peculiar and other rare morphologies. We cross-match the radio sources in the catalogue with the infrared and optical catalogues, finding infrared cross-matches for 73% and photometric redshifts for 36% of the radio galaxies.