Performance Analysis
CARE-SD: Classifier-based analysis for recognizing and eliminating stigmatizing and doubt marker labels in electronic health records: model development and validation
Walker, Drew, Thorne, Annie, Das, Sudeshna, Love, Jennifer, Cooper, Hannah LF, Livingston, Melvin III, Sarker, Abeed
Objective: To detect and classify features of stigmatizing and biased language in intensive care electronic health records (EHRs) using natural language processing techniques. Materials and Methods: We first created a lexicon and regular expression lists from literature-driven stem words for linguistic features of stigmatizing patient labels, doubt markers, and scare quotes within EHRs. The lexicon was further extended using Word2Vec and GPT 3.5, and refined through human evaluation. These lexicons were used to search for matches across 18 million sentences from the de-identified Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) dataset. For each linguistic bias feature, 1000 sentence matches were sampled, labeled by expert clinical and public health annotators, and used to supervised learning classifiers. Results: Lexicon development from expanded literature stem-word lists resulted in a doubt marker lexicon containing 58 expressions, and a stigmatizing labels lexicon containing 127 expressions. Classifiers for doubt markers and stigmatizing labels had the highest performance, with macro F1-scores of .84 and .79, positive-label recall and precision values ranging from .71 to .86, and accuracies aligning closely with human annotator agreement (.87). Discussion: This study demonstrated the feasibility of supervised classifiers in automatically identifying stigmatizing labels and doubt markers in medical text, and identified trends in stigmatizing language use in an EHR setting. Additional labeled data may help improve lower scare quote model performance. Conclusions: Classifiers developed in this study showed high model performance and can be applied to identify patterns and target interventions to reduce stigmatizing labels and doubt markers in healthcare systems.
Detection of Sleep Oxygen Desaturations from Electroencephalogram Signals
Manjunath, Shashank, Sathyanarayana, Aarti
In this work, we leverage machine learning techniques to identify potential biomarkers of oxygen desaturation during sleep exclusively from electroencephalogram (EEG) signals in pediatric patients with sleep apnea. Development of a machine learning technique which can successfully identify EEG signals from patients with sleep apnea as well as identify latent EEG signals which come from subjects who experience oxygen desaturations but do not themselves occur during oxygen desaturation events would provide a strong step towards developing a brain-based biomarker for sleep apnea in order to aid with easier diagnosis of this disease. We leverage a large corpus of data, and show that machine learning enables us to classify EEG signals as occurring during oxygen desaturations or not occurring during oxygen desaturations with an average 66.8% balanced accuracy. We furthermore investigate the ability of machine learning models to identify subjects who experience oxygen desaturations from EEG data that does not occur during oxygen desaturations. We conclude that there is a potential biomarker for oxygen desaturation in EEG data.
Selective Classification Under Distribution Shifts
Liang, Hengyue, Peng, Le, Sun, Ju
In selective classification (SC), a classifier abstains from making predictions that are likely to be wrong to avoid excessive errors. To deploy imperfect classifiers -- imperfect either due to intrinsic statistical noise of data or for robustness issue of the classifier or beyond -- in high-stakes scenarios, SC appears to be an attractive and necessary path to follow. Despite decades of research in SC, most previous SC methods still focus on the ideal statistical setting only, i.e., the data distribution at deployment is the same as that of training, although practical data can come from the wild. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we propose an SC framework that takes into account distribution shifts, termed generalized selective classification, that covers label-shifted (or out-of-distribution) and covariate-shifted samples, in addition to typical in-distribution samples, the first of its kind in the SC literature. We focus on non-training-based confidence-score functions for generalized SC on deep learning (DL) classifiers and propose two novel margin-based score functions. Through extensive analysis and experiments, we show that our proposed score functions are more effective and reliable than the existing ones for generalized SC on a variety of classification tasks and DL classifiers.
A quantitative and typological study of Early Slavic participle clauses and their competition
This thesis is a corpus-based, quantitative, and typological analysis of the functions of Early Slavic participle constructions and their finite competitors ($jegda$-'when'-clauses). The first part leverages detailed linguistic annotation on Early Slavic corpora at the morphosyntactic, dependency, information-structural, and lexical levels to obtain indirect evidence for different potential functions of participle clauses and their main finite competitor and understand the roles of compositionality and default discourse reasoning as explanations for the distribution of participle constructions and $jegda$-clauses in the corpus. The second part uses massively parallel data to analyze typological variation in how languages express the semantic space of English $when$, whose scope encompasses that of Early Slavic participle constructions and $jegda$-clauses. Probabilistic semantic maps are generated and statistical methods (including Kriging, Gaussian Mixture Modelling, precision and recall analysis) are used to induce cross-linguistically salient dimensions from the parallel corpus and to study conceptual variation within the semantic space of the hypothetical concept WHEN.
Rethinking recidivism through a causal lens
Shirvaikar, Vik, Lakshminarayan, Choudur
Predictive modeling of criminal recidivism, or whether people will re-offend in the future, has a long and contentious history. Modern causal inference methods allow us to move beyond prediction and target the "treatment effect" of a specific intervention on an outcome in an observational dataset. In this paper, we look specifically at the effect of incarceration (prison time) on recidivism, using a well-known dataset from North Carolina. Two popular causal methods for addressing confounding bias are explained and demonstrated: directed acyclic graph (DAG) adjustment and double machine learning (DML), including a sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounders. We find that incarceration has a detrimental effect on recidivism, i.e., longer prison sentences make it more likely that individuals will re-offend after release, although this conclusion should not be generalized beyond the scope of our data. We hope that this case study can inform future applications of causal inference to criminal justice analysis.
A Rationale-centric Counterfactual Data Augmentation Method for Cross-Document Event Coreference Resolution
Ding, Bowen, Min, Qingkai, Ma, Shengkun, Li, Yingjie, Yang, Linyi, Zhang, Yue
Based on Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), event coreference resolution (ECR) systems have demonstrated outstanding performance in clustering coreferential events across documents. However, the state-of-the-art system exhibits an excessive reliance on the'triggers lexical matching' spurious pattern in the input mention pair text. We formalize the decision-making process of the baseline ECR system using a Structural Causal Model (SCM), aiming to identify spurious and causal associations (i.e., rationales) within the ECR task. Leveraging the debiasing capability of counterfactual data augmentation, we develop a rationale-centric counterfactual data augmentation method with LLM-in-the-loop. This method is specialized for pairwise input in the Figure 1: The distribution of'triggers lexical matching' ECR system, where we conduct direct interventions in mention pairs from ECB+ training set, along with a on triggers and context to mitigate the false negative example from Held et al.'s system which spurious association while emphasizing the causation.
Fast Computation of Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for $k$-NN Regression
We describe a fast computation method for leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) for $k$-nearest neighbours ($k$-NN) regression. We show that, under a tie-breaking condition for nearest neighbours, the LOOCV estimate of the mean square error for $k$-NN regression is identical to the mean square error of $(k+1)$-NN regression evaluated on the training data, multiplied by the scaling factor $(k+1)^2/k^2$. Therefore, to compute the LOOCV score, one only needs to fit $(k+1)$-NN regression only once, and does not need to repeat training-validation of $k$-NN regression for the number of training data. Numerical experiments confirm the validity of the fast computation method.
Guiding adaptive shrinkage by co-data to improve regression-based prediction and feature selection
van de Wiel, Mark A., van Wieringen, Wessel N.
The high dimensional nature of genomics data complicates feature selection, in particular in low sample size studies - not uncommon in clinical prediction settings. It is widely recognized that complementary data on the features, `co-data', may improve results. Examples are prior feature groups or p-values from a related study. Such co-data are ubiquitous in genomics settings due to the availability of public repositories. Yet, the uptake of learning methods that structurally use such co-data is limited. We review guided adaptive shrinkage methods: a class of regression-based learners that use co-data to adapt the shrinkage parameters, crucial for the performance of those learners. We discuss technical aspects, but also the applicability in terms of types of co-data that can be handled. This class of methods is contrasted with several others. In particular, group-adaptive shrinkage is compared with the better-known sparse group-lasso by evaluating feature selection. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the guided shrinkage methodology by showing how to `do-it-yourself': we integrate implementations of a co-data learner and the spike-and-slab prior for the purpose of improving feature selection in genetics studies.
Mutual information and the encoding of contingency tables
Jerdee, Maximilian, Kirkley, Alec, Newman, M. E. J.
Mutual information is commonly used as a measure of similarity between competing labelings of a given set of objects, for example to quantify performance in classification and community detection tasks. As argued recently, however, the mutual information as conventionally defined can return biased results because it neglects the information cost of the so-called contingency table, a crucial component of the similarity calculation. In principle the bias can be rectified by subtracting the appropriate information cost, leading to the modified measure known as the reduced mutual information, but in practice one can only ever compute an upper bound on this information cost, and the value of the reduced mutual information depends crucially on how good a bound is established. In this paper we describe an improved method for encoding contingency tables that gives a substantially better bound in typical use cases, and approaches the ideal value in the common case where the labelings are closely similar, as we demonstrate with extensive numerical results.
Carbon Filter: Real-time Alert Triage Using Large Scale Clustering and Fast Search
Oliver, Jonathan, Batta, Raghav, Bates, Adam, Inam, Muhammad Adil, Mehta, Shelly, Xia, Shugao
"Alert fatigue" is one of the biggest challenges faced by the Security Operations Center (SOC) today, with analysts spending more than half of their time reviewing false alerts. Endpoint detection products raise alerts by pattern matching on event telemetry against behavioral rules that describe potentially malicious behavior, but can suffer from high false positives that distract from actual attacks. While alert triage techniques based on data provenance may show promise, these techniques can take over a minute to inspect a single alert, while EDR customers may face tens of millions of alerts per day; the current reality is that these approaches aren't nearly scalable enough for production environments. We present Carbon Filter, a statistical learning based system that dramatically reduces the number of alerts analysts need to manually review. Our approach is based on the observation that false alert triggers can be efficiently identified and separated from suspicious behaviors by examining the process initiation context (e.g., the command line) that launched the responsible process. Through the use of fast-search algorithms for training and inference, our approach scales to millions of alerts per day. Through batching queries to the model, we observe a theoretical maximum throughput of 20 million alerts per hour. Based on the analysis of tens of million alerts from customer deployments, our solution resulted in a 6-fold improvement in the Signal-to-Noise ratio without compromising on alert triage performance.