Performance Analysis
A Proofs of the Main Results
This section describes Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) by Liu and Wang [19]. The overview is meant as supplementary material for Section 5, where we propose to use SVGD for inferring the DiBS posteriors p(Z | D) and p(Z, ฮ | D). In contrast to sampling-based MCMC or optimizationbased variational inference methods, SVGD iteratively transports a fixed set of particles to closely match a target distribution, akin to the gradient descent algorithm in optimization. We refer the reader to Liu and Wang [19] for additional details. Let p(x) with x X be a differentiable density that we want to sample from, e.g., to estimate an expectation.
Conformal Prediction Sets for Instance Segmentation
Lu, Kerri, Kluger, Dan M., Bates, Stephen, Wang, Sherrie
Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground truth. To address this limitation, we introduce a conformal prediction algorithm to generate adaptive confidence sets for instance segmentation. Given an image and a pixel coordinate query, our algorithm generates a confidence set of instance predictions for that pixel, with a provable guarantee for the probability that at least one of the predictions has high Intersection-Over-Union (IoU) with the true object instance mask. We apply our algorithm to instance segmentation examples in agricultural field delineation, cell segmentation, and vehicle detection. Empirically, we find that our prediction sets vary in size based on query difficulty and attain the target coverage, outperforming existing baselines such as Learn Then Test, Conformal Risk Control, and morphological dilation-based methods. We provide versions of the algorithm with asymptotic and finite sample guarantees.