Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations, particularly in capturing the evolving nature of solar activity. Recognizing the limitations of traditional flare forecasting approaches, our research aims to uncover hidden relationships and the evolutionary characteristics of solar flares and their source regions. Our previously proposed Sliding Window Multivariate Time Series Forest (Slim-TSF) has shown the feasibility of usage applied on multivariate time series data. A significant aspect of this study is the comparative analysis of our updated Slim-TSF framework against the original model outcomes. Preliminary findings indicate a notable improvement, with an average increase of 5\% in both the True Skill Statistic (TSS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). This enhancement not only underscores the effectiveness of our refined methodology but also suggests that our systematic evaluation and feature selection approach can significantly advance the predictive accuracy of solar flare forecasting models.

Imbalanced data are frequently encountered in real-world classification tasks. Previous works on imbalanced learning mostly focused on learning with a minority class of few samples. However, the notion of imbalance also applies to cases where the minority class contains abundant samples, which is usually the case for industrial applications like fraud detection in the area of financial risk management. In this paper, we take a population-level approach to imbalanced learning by proposing a new formulation called \emph{ultra-imbalanced classification} (UIC). Under UIC, loss functions behave differently even if infinite amount of training samples are available. To understand the intrinsic difficulty of UIC problems, we borrow ideas from information theory and establish a framework to compare different loss functions through the lens of statistical information. A novel learning objective termed Tunable Boosting Loss is developed which is provably resistant against data imbalance under UIC, as well as being empirically efficient verified by extensive experimental studies on both public and industrial datasets.

Although fundamental to the advancement of Machine Learning, the classic evaluation metrics extracted from the confusion matrix, such as precision and F1, are limited. Such metrics only offer a quantitative view of the models' performance, without considering the complexity of the data or the quality of the hit. To overcome these limitations, recent research has introduced the use of psychometric metrics such as Item Response Theory (IRT), which allows an assessment at the level of latent characteristics of instances. This work investigates how IRT concepts can enrich a confusion matrix in order to identify which model is the most appropriate among options with similar performance. In the study carried out, IRT does not replace, but complements classical metrics by offering a new layer of evaluation and observation of the fine behavior of models in specific instances. It was also observed that there is 97% confidence that the score from the IRT has different contributions from 66% of the classical metrics analyzed.

Since the entry of kernel theory in the field of quantum machine learning, quantum kernel methods (QKMs) have gained increasing attention with regard to both probing promising applications and delivering intriguing research insights. Two common approaches for computing the underlying Gram matrix have emerged: fidelity quantum kernels (FQKs) and projected quantum kernels (PQKs). Benchmarking these methods is crucial to gain robust insights and to understand their practical utility. In this work, we present a comprehensive large-scale study examining QKMs based on FQKs and PQKs across a manifold of design choices. Our investigation encompasses both classification and regression tasks for five dataset families and 64 datasets, systematically comparing the use of FQKs and PQKs quantum support vector machines and kernel ridge regression. This resulted in over 20,000 models that were trained and optimized using a state-of-the-art hyperparameter search to ensure robust and comprehensive insights. We delve into the importance of hyperparameters on model performance scores and support our findings through rigorous correlation analyses. In this, we also closely inspect two data encoding strategies. Moreover, we provide an in-depth analysis addressing the design freedom of PQKs and explore the underlying principles responsible for learning. Our goal is not to identify the best-performing model for a specific task but to uncover the mechanisms that lead to effective QKMs and reveal universal patterns.

Chinese Spelling Correction (CSC) stands as a foundational Natural Language Processing (NLP) task, which primarily focuses on the correction of erroneous characters in Chinese texts. Certain existing methodologies opt to disentangle the error correction process, employing an additional error detector to pinpoint error positions. However, owing to the inherent performance limitations of error detector, precision and recall are like two sides of the coin which can not be both facing up simultaneously. Furthermore, it is also worth investigating how the error position information can be judiciously applied to assist the error correction. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach based on error detector-corrector framework. Our detector is designed to yield two error detection results, each characterized by high precision and recall. Given that the occurrence of errors is context-dependent and detection outcomes may be less precise, we incorporate the error detection results into the CSC task using an innovative feature fusion strategy and a selective masking strategy. Empirical experiments conducted on mainstream CSC datasets substantiate the efficacy of our proposed method.

This research investigates the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to predict the toxicity of nanoparticles, a pressing concern due to their pervasive use in various industries and the inherent challenges in assessing their biological interactions. Employing models such as Decision Trees, Random Forests, and XGBoost, the study focuses on analyzing physicochemical properties like size, shape, surface charge, and chemical composition to determine their influence on toxicity. Our findings highlight the significant role of oxygen atoms, particle size, surface area, dosage, and exposure duration in affecting toxicity levels. The use of machine learning allows for a nuanced understanding of the intricate patterns these properties form in biological contexts, surpassing traditional analysis methods in efficiency and predictive power. These advancements aid in developing safer nanomaterials through computational chemistry, reducing reliance on costly and time-consuming experimental methods. This approach not only enhances our understanding of nanoparticle behavior in biological systems but also streamlines the safety assessment process, marking a significant stride towards integrating computational techniques in nanotoxicology.

Machine learning has revolutionized numerous domains, playing a crucial role in driving advancements and enabling data-centric processes. The significance of data in training models and shaping their performance cannot be overstated. Recent research has highlighted the heterogeneous impact of individual data samples, particularly the presence of valuable data that significantly contributes to the utility and effectiveness of machine learning models. However, a critical question remains unanswered: are these valuable data samples more vulnerable to machine learning attacks? In this work, we investigate the relationship between data importance and machine learning attacks by analyzing five distinct attack types. Our findings reveal notable insights. For example, we observe that high importance data samples exhibit increased vulnerability in certain attacks, such as membership inference and model stealing. By analyzing the linkage between membership inference vulnerability and data importance, we demonstrate that sample characteristics can be integrated into membership metrics by introducing sample-specific criteria, therefore enhancing the membership inference performance. These findings emphasize the urgent need for innovative defense mechanisms that strike a balance between maximizing utility and safeguarding valuable data against potential exploitation.

Process curves are multi-variate finite time series data coming from manufacturing processes. This paper studies machine learning methods for drifts of process curves. A theoretic framework to synthetically generate process curves in a controlled way is introduced in order to benchmark machine learning algorithms for process drift detection. A evaluation score, called the temporal area under the curve, is introduced, which allows to quantify how well machine learning models unveil curves belonging to drift segments. Finally, a benchmark study comparing popular machine learning approaches on synthetic data generated with the introduced framework shown.

Background: The 2024 Mpox outbreak, particularly severe in Africa with clade 1b emergence, has highlighted critical gaps in diagnostic capabilities in resource-limited settings. This study aimed to develop and validate an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven, on-device screening tool for Mpox, designed to function offline in low-resource environments. Methods: We developed a YOLOv8n-based deep learning model trained on 2,700 images (900 each of Mpox, other skin conditions, and normal skin), including synthetic data. The model was validated on 360 images and tested on 540 images. A larger external validation was conducted using 1,500 independent images. Performance metrics included accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, sensitivity, and specificity. Findings: The model demonstrated high accuracy (96%) in the final test set. For Mpox detection, it achieved 93% precision, 97% recall, and an F1-score of 95%. Sensitivity and specificity for Mpox detection were 97% and 96%, respectively. Performance remained consistent in the larger external validation, confirming the model's robustness and generalizability. Interpretation: This AI-driven screening tool offers a rapid, accurate, and scalable solution for Mpox detection in resource-constrained settings. Its offline functionality and high performance across diverse datasets suggest significant potential for improving Mpox surveillance and management, particularly in areas lacking traditional diagnostic infrastructure.

Investors are continuously seeking profitable investment opportunities in startups and, hence, for effective decision-making, need to predict a startup's probability of success. Nowadays, investors can use not only various fundamental information about a startup (e.g., the age of the startup, the number of founders, and the business sector) but also textual description of a startup's innovation and business model, which is widely available through online venture capital (VC) platforms such as Crunchbase. To support the decision-making of investors, we develop a machine learning approach with the aim of locating successful startups on VC platforms. Specifically, we develop, train, and evaluate a tailored, fused large language model to predict startup success. Thereby, we assess to what extent self-descriptions on VC platforms are predictive of startup success. Using 20,172 online profiles from Crunchbase, we find that our fused large language model can predict startup success, with textual self-descriptions being responsible for a significant part of the predictive power. Our work provides a decision support tool for investors to find profitable investment opportunities.