Performance Analysis
Mitigating Matching Biases Through Score Calibration
Moslemi, Mohammad Hossein, Milani, Mostafa
Record matching, the task of identifying records that correspond to the same real-world entities across databases, is critical for data integration in domains like healthcare, finance, and e-commerce. While traditional record matching models focus on optimizing accuracy, fairness issues, such as demographic disparities in model performance, have attracted increasing attention. Biased outcomes in record matching can result in unequal error rates across demographic groups, raising ethical and legal concerns. Existing research primarily addresses fairness at specific decision thresholds, using bias metrics like Demographic Parity (DP), Equal Opportunity (EO), and Equalized Odds (EOD) differences. However, threshold-specific metrics may overlook cumulative biases across varying thresholds. In this paper, we adapt fairness metrics traditionally applied in regression models to evaluate cumulative bias across all thresholds in record matching. We propose a novel post-processing calibration method, leveraging optimal transport theory and Wasserstein barycenters, to balance matching scores across demographic groups. This approach treats any matching model as a black box, making it applicable to a wide range of models without access to their training data. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the calibration method in reducing demographic parity difference in matching scores. To address limitations in reducing EOD and EO differences, we introduce a conditional calibration method, which empirically achieves fairness across widely used benchmarks and state-of-the-art matching methods. This work provides a comprehensive framework for fairness-aware record matching, setting the foundation for more equitable data integration processes.
Privacy-Preserving Customer Churn Prediction Model in the Context of Telecommunication Industry
Sana, Joydeb Kumar, Rahman, M Sohel, Rahman, M Saifur
Data is the main fuel of a successful machine learning model. A dataset may contain sensitive individual records e.g. personal health records, financial data, industrial information, etc. Training a model using this sensitive data has become a new privacy concern when someone uses third-party cloud computing. Trained models also suffer privacy attacks which leads to the leaking of sensitive information of the training data. This study is conducted to preserve the privacy of training data in the context of customer churn prediction modeling for the telecommunications industry (TCI). In this work, we propose a framework for privacy-preserving customer churn prediction (PPCCP) model in the cloud environment. We have proposed a novel approach which is a combination of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and adaptive Weight-of-Evidence (aWOE). Synthetic data is generated from GANs, and aWOE is applied on the synthetic training dataset before feeding the data to the classification algorithms. Our experiments were carried out using eight different machine learning (ML) classifiers on three openly accessible datasets from the telecommunication sector. We then evaluated the performance using six commonly employed evaluation metrics. In addition to presenting a data privacy analysis, we also performed a statistical significance test. The training and prediction processes achieve data privacy and the prediction classifiers achieve high prediction performance (87.1\% in terms of F-Measure for GANs-aWOE based Na\"{\i}ve Bayes model). In contrast to earlier studies, our suggested approach demonstrates a prediction enhancement of up to 28.9\% and 27.9\% in terms of accuracy and F-measure, respectively.
Building the Self-Improvement Loop: Error Detection and Correction in Goal-Oriented Semantic Communications
Li, Peizheng, Lin, Xinyi, Aijaz, Adnan
Error detection and correction are essential for ensuring robust and reliable operation in modern communication systems, particularly in complex transmission environments. However, discussions on these topics have largely been overlooked in semantic communication (SemCom), which focuses on transmitting meaning rather than symbols, leading to significant improvements in communication efficiency. Despite these advantages, semantic errors -- stemming from discrepancies between transmitted and received meanings -- present a major challenge to system reliability. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a comprehensive framework for detecting and correcting semantic errors in SemCom systems. We formally define semantic error, detection, and correction mechanisms, and identify key sources of semantic errors. To address these challenges, we develop a Gaussian process (GP)-based method for latent space monitoring to detect errors, alongside a human-in-the-loop reinforcement learning (HITL-RL) approach to optimize semantic model configurations using user feedback. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in mitigating semantic errors under various conditions, including adversarial attacks, input feature changes, physical channel variations, and user preference shifts. This work lays the foundation for more reliable and adaptive SemCom systems with robust semantic error management techniques.
OSAD: Open-Set Aircraft Detection in SAR Images
Xiao, Xiayang, Li, Zhuoxuan, Wang, Haipeng
Current mainstream SAR image object detection methods still lack robustness when dealing with unknown objects in open environments. Open-set detection aims to enable detectors trained on a closed set to detect all known objects and identify unknown objects in open-set environments. The key challenges are how to improve the generalization to potential unknown objects and reduce the empirical classification risk of known categories under strong supervision. To address these challenges, a novel open-set aircraft detector for SAR images is proposed, named Open-Set Aircraft Detection (OSAD), which is equipped with three dedicated components: global context modeling (GCM), location quality-driven pseudo labeling generation (LPG), and prototype contrastive learning (PCL). GCM effectively enhances the network's representation of objects by attention maps which is formed through the capture of long sequential positional relationships. LPG leverages clues about object positions and shapes to optimize localization quality, avoiding overfitting to known category information and enhancing generalization to potential unknown objects. PCL employs prototype-based contrastive encoding loss to promote instance-level intra-class compactness and inter-class variance, aiming to minimize the overlap between known and unknown distributions and reduce the empirical classification risk of known categories. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that the proposed method can effectively detect unknown objects and exhibit competitive performance without compromising closed-set performance. The highest absolute gain which ranges from 0 to 18.36% can be achieved on the average precision of unknown objects.
Equitable Length of Stay Prediction for Patients with Learning Disabilities and Multiple Long-term Conditions Using Machine Learning
Abakasanga, Emeka, Kousovista, Rania, Cosma, Georgina, Akbari, Ashley, Zaccardi, Francesco, Kaur, Navjot, Fitt, Danielle, Jun, Gyuchan Thomas, Kiani, Reza, Gangadharan, Satheesh
People with learning disabilities have a higher mortality rate and premature deaths compared to the general public, as reported in published research in the UK and other countries. This study analyses hospitalisations of 9,618 patients identified with learning disabilities and long-term conditions for the population of Wales using electronic health record (EHR) data sources from the SAIL Databank. We describe the demographic characteristics, prevalence of long-term conditions, medication history, hospital visits, and lifestyle history for our study cohort, and apply machine learning models to predict the length of hospital stays for this cohort. The random forest (RF) model achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.759 (males) and 0.756 (females), a false negative rate of 0.224 (males) and 0.229 (females), and a balanced accuracy of 0.690 (males) and 0.689 (females). After examining model performance across ethnic groups, two bias mitigation algorithms (threshold optimization and the reductions algorithm using an exponentiated gradient) were applied to minimise performance discrepancies. The threshold optimizer algorithm outperformed the reductions algorithm, achieving lower ranges in false positive rate and balanced accuracy for the male cohort across the ethnic groups. This study demonstrates the potential of applying machine learning models with effective bias mitigation approaches on EHR data sources to enable equitable prediction of hospital stays by addressing data imbalances across groups.
DSDE: Using Proportion Estimation to Improve Model Selection for Out-of-Distribution Detection
Geng, Jingyao, Zhang, Yuan, Huang, Jiaqi, Xue, Feng, Tan, Falong, Xie, Chuanlong, Zhang, Shumei
Model library is an effective tool for improving the performance of single-model Out-of-Distribution (OoD) detector, mainly through model selection and detector fusion. However, existing methods in the literature do not provide uncertainty quantification for model selection results. Additionally, the model ensemble process primarily focuses on controlling the True Positive Rate (TPR) while neglecting the False Positive Rate (FPR). In this paper, we emphasize the significance of the proportion of models in the library that identify the test sample as an OoD sample. This proportion holds crucial information and directly influences the error rate of OoD detection.To address this, we propose inverting the commonly-used sequential p-value strategies. We define the rejection region initially and then estimate the error rate. Furthermore, we introduce a novel perspective from change-point detection and propose an approach for proportion estimation with automatic hyperparameter selection. We name the proposed approach as DOS-Storey-based Detector Ensemble (DSDE). Experimental results on CIFAR10 and CIFAR100 demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in tackling OoD detection challenges. Specifically, the CIFAR10 experiments show that DSDE reduces the FPR from 11.07% to 3.31% compared to the top-performing single-model detector.
Enhancing Glucose Level Prediction of ICU Patients through Irregular Time-Series Analysis and Integrated Representation
Mehdizavareh, Hadi, Khan, Arijit, Cichosz, Simon Lebech
Accurately predicting blood glucose (BG) levels of ICU patients is critical, as both hypoglycemia (BG < 70 mg/dL) and hyperglycemia (BG > 180 mg/dL) are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We develop the Multi-source Irregular Time-Series Transformer (MITST), a novel machine learning-based model to forecast the next BG level, classifying it into hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, or euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL). The irregularity and complexity of Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, spanning multiple heterogeneous clinical sources like lab results, medications, and vital signs, pose significant challenges for prediction tasks. MITST addresses these using hierarchical Transformer architectures, which include a feature-level, a timestamp-level, and a source-level Transformer. This design captures fine-grained temporal dynamics and allows learning-based data integration instead of traditional predefined aggregation. In a large-scale evaluation using the eICU database (200,859 ICU stays across 208 hospitals), MITST achieves an average improvement of 1.7% (p < 0.001) in AUROC and 1.8% (p < 0.001) in AUPRC over a state-of-the-art baseline. For hypoglycemia, MITST achieves an AUROC of 0.915 and an AUPRC of 0.247, both significantly higher than the baseline's AUROC of 0.862 and AUPRC of 0.208 (p < 0.001). The flexible architecture of MITST allows seamless integration of new data sources without retraining the entire model, enhancing its adaptability in clinical decision support. Although this study focuses on predicting BG levels, MITST can easily be extended to other critical event prediction tasks in ICU settings, offering a robust solution for analyzing complex, multi-source, irregular time-series data.
Longitudinal Wrist PPG Analysis for Reliable Hypertension Risk Screening Using Deep Learning
Lin, Hui, Li, Jiyang, Hussein, Ramy, Sui, Xin, Li, Xiaoyu, Zhu, Guangpu, Katsaggelos, Aggelos K., Zeng, Zijing, Li, Yelei
Hypertension is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Traditional blood pressure monitoring methods are cumbersome and inadequate for continuous tracking, prompting the development of PPG-based cuffless blood pressure monitoring wearables. This study leverages deep learning models, including ResNet and Transformer, to analyze wrist PPG data collected with a smartwatch for efficient hypertension risk screening, eliminating the need for handcrafted PPG features. Using the Home Blood Pressure Monitoring (HBPM) longitudinal dataset of 448 subjects and five-fold cross-validation, our model was trained on over 68k spot-check instances from 358 subjects and tested on real-world continuous recordings of 90 subjects. The compact ResNet model with 0.124M parameters performed significantly better than traditional machine learning methods, demonstrating its effectiveness in distinguishing between healthy and abnormal cases in real-world scenarios.
FEED: Fairness-Enhanced Meta-Learning for Domain Generalization
Jiang, Kai, Zhao, Chen, Wang, Haoliang, Chen, Feng
Generalizing to out-of-distribution data while being aware of model fairness is a significant and challenging problem in meta-learning. The goal of this problem is to find a set of fairness-aware invariant parameters of classifier that is trained using data drawn from a family of related training domains with distribution shift on non-sensitive features as well as different levels of dependence between model predictions and sensitive features so that the classifier can achieve good generalization performance on unknown but distinct test domains. To tackle this challenge, existing state-of-the-art methods either address the domain generalization problem but completely ignore learning with fairness or solely specify shifted domains with various fairness levels. This paper introduces an approach to fairness-aware meta-learning that significantly enhances domain generalization capabilities. Our framework, Fairness-Enhanced Meta-Learning for Domain Generalization (FEED), disentangles latent data representations into content, style, and sensitive vectors. This disentanglement facilitates the robust generalization of machine learning models across diverse domains while adhering to fairness constraints. Unlike traditional methods that focus primarily on domain invariance or sensitivity to shifts, our model integrates a fairness-aware invariance criterion directly into the meta-learning process. This integration ensures that the learned parameters uphold fairness consistently, even when domain characteristics vary widely. We validate our approach through extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks, demonstrating not only superior performance in maintaining high accuracy and fairness but also significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods in domain generalization tasks.
The impact of MRI image quality on statistical and predictive analysis on voxel based morphology
Hoffstaedter, Felix, Nieto, Nicolás, Eickhoff, Simon B., Patil, Kaustubh R.
Image Quality of MRI brain scans is strongly influenced by within scanner head movements and the resulting image artifacts alter derived measures like brain volume and cortical thickness. Automated image quality assessment is key to controlling for confounding effects of poor image quality. In this study, we systematically test for the influence of image quality on univariate statistics and machine learning classification. We analyzed group effects of sex/gender on local brain volume and made predictions of sex/gender using logistic regression, while correcting for brain size. From three large publicly available datasets, two age and sex-balanced samples were derived to test the generalizability of the effect for pooled sample sizes of n=760 and n=1094. Results of the Bonferroni corrected t-tests over 3747 gray matter features showed a strong influence of low-quality data on the ability to find significant sex/gender differences for the smaller sample. Increasing sample size and more so image quality showed a stark increase in detecting significant effects in univariate group comparisons. For the classification of sex/gender using logistic regression, both increasing sample size and image quality had a marginal effect on the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for most datasets and subsamples. Our results suggest a more stringent quality control for univariate approaches than for multivariate classification with a leaning towards higher quality for classical group statistics and bigger sample sizes for machine learning applications in neuroimaging.