This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

Over an extensive duration, administrators and clinicians have endeavoured to predict Emergency Department (ED) visits with precision, aiming to optimise resource distribution. Despite the proliferation of diverse AI-driven models tailored for precise prognostication, this task persists as a formidable challenge, besieged by constraints such as restrained generalisability, susceptibility to overfitting and underfitting, scalability issues, and complex fine-tuning hyper-parameters. In this study, we introduce a novel Meta-learning Gradient Booster (Meta-ED) approach for precisely forecasting daily ED visits and leveraging a comprehensive dataset of exogenous variables, including socio-demographic characteristics, healthcare service use, chronic diseases, diagnosis, and climate parameters spanning 23 years from Canberra Hospital in ACT, Australia. The proposed Meta-ED consists of four foundational learners-Catboost, Random Forest, Extra Tree, and lightGBoost-alongside a dependable top-level learner, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), by combining the unique capabilities of varied base models (sub-learners). Our study assesses the efficacy of the Meta-ED model through an extensive comparative analysis involving 23 models. The evaluation outcomes reveal a notable superiority of Meta-ED over the other models in accuracy at 85.7% (95% CI ;85.4%, 86.0%) and across a spectrum of 10 evaluation metrics. Notably, when compared with prominent techniques, XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, LightGBoost, and Extra Tree (ExT), Meta-ED showcases substantial accuracy enhancements of 58.6%, 106.3%, 22.3%, 7.0%, and 15.7%, respectively. Furthermore, incorporating weather-related features demonstrates a 3.25% improvement in the prediction accuracy of visitors' numbers. The encouraging outcomes of our study underscore Meta-ED as a foundation model for the precise prediction of daily ED visitors.

Reconstructing compositional 3D representations of scenes, where each object is represented with its own 3D model, is a highly desirable capability in robotics and augmented reality. However, most existing methods rely heavily on strong appearance priors for object discovery, therefore only working on those classes of objects on which the method has been trained, or do not allow for object manipulation, which is necessary to scan objects fully and to guide object discovery in challenging scenarios. We address these limitations with a novel interaction-guided and class-agnostic method based on object displacements that allows a user to move around a scene with an RGB-D camera, hold up objects, and finally outputs one 3D model per held-up object. Our main contribution to this end is a novel approach to detecting user-object interactions and extracting the masks of manipulated objects. On a custom-captured dataset, our pipeline discovers manipulated objects with 78.3% precision at 100% recall and reconstructs them with a mean chamfer distance of 0.90cm. Compared to Co-Fusion, the only comparable interaction-based and class-agnostic baseline, this corresponds to a reduction in chamfer distance of 73% while detecting 99% fewer false positives.

Objective: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease characterized by unpredictable flares. This study aimed to develop a novel proteomics-based risk prediction model specifically for Asian SLE populations to enhance personalized disease management and early intervention. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 48 weeks, including 139 SLE patients monitored every 12 weeks. Patients were classified into flare (n = 53) and non-flare (n = 86) groups. Baseline plasma samples underwent data-independent acquisition (DIA) proteomics analysis, and phenome-wide Mendelian randomization (PheWAS) was performed to evaluate causal relationships between proteins and clinical predictors. Logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models were used to integrate proteomic and clinical data for flare risk prediction. Results: Five proteins (SAA1, B4GALT5, GIT2, NAA15, and RPIA) were significantly associated with SLE Disease Activity Index-2K (SLEDAI-2K) scores and 1-year flare risk, implicating key pathways such as B-cell receptor signaling and platelet degranulation. SAA1 demonstrated causal effects on flare-related clinical markers, including hemoglobin and red blood cell counts. A combined model integrating clinical and proteomic data achieved the highest predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.769), surpassing individual models. SAA1 was highlighted as a priority biomarker for rapid flare discrimination. Conclusion: The integration of proteomic and clinical data significantly improves flare prediction in Asian SLE patients. The identification of key proteins and their causal relationships with flare-related clinical markers provides valuable insights for proactive SLE management and personalized therapeutic approaches.

Electrocardiogram (ECG), a non-invasive and affordable tool for cardiac monitoring, is highly sensitive in detecting acute heart attacks. However, due to the lengthy nature of ECG recordings, numerous machine learning methods have been developed for automated heart disease detection to reduce human workload. Despite these efforts, performance remains suboptimal. A key obstacle is the inherent complexity of ECG data, which includes heterogeneity (e.g., varying sampling rates), high levels of noise, demographic-related pattern shifts, and intricate rhythm-event associations. To overcome these challenges, this paper introduces AnyECG, a foundational model designed to extract robust representations from any real-world ECG data. Specifically, a tailored ECG Tokenizer encodes each fixed-duration ECG fragment into a token and, guided by proxy tasks, converts noisy, continuous ECG features into discrete, compact, and clinically meaningful local rhythm codes. These codes encapsulate basic morphological, frequency, and demographic information (e.g., sex), effectively mitigating signal noise. We further pre-train the AnyECG to learn rhythmic pattern associations across ECG tokens, enabling the capture of cardiac event semantics. By being jointly pre-trained on diverse ECG data sources, AnyECG is capable of generalizing across a wide range of downstream tasks where ECG signals are recorded from various devices and scenarios. Experimental results in anomaly detection, arrhythmia detection, corrupted lead generation, and ultra-long ECG signal analysis demonstrate that AnyECG learns common ECG knowledge from data and significantly outperforms cutting-edge methods in each respective task.

Predicting drug-drug interaction (DDI) plays an important role in pharmacology and healthcare for identifying potential adverse interactions and beneficial combination therapies between drug pairs. Recently, a flurry of graph learning methods have been introduced to predict drug-drug interactions. However, evaluating existing methods has several limitations, such as the absence of a unified comparison framework for DDI prediction methods, lack of assessments in meaningful real-world scenarios, and insufficient exploration of side information usage. In order to address these unresolved limitations in the literature, we propose a DDI prediction benchmark on graph learning. We first conduct unified evaluation comparison among existing methods. To meet realistic scenarios, we further evaluate the performance of different methods in settings with new drugs involved and examine the performance across different DDI types. Component analysis is conducted on the biomedical network to better utilize side information. Through this work, we hope to provide more insights for the problem of DDI prediction. Our implementation and data is open-sourced at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DDI-Benchmark-ACD9/.

--Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely employed for semi-supervised node classification tasks on graphs. However, the performance of GNNs is significantly affected by label noise, that is, a small amount of incorrectly labeled nodes can substantially misguide model training. Mainstream solutions define node classification with label noise (NCLN) as a reliable labeling task, often introducing node similarity with quadratic computational complexity to more accurately assess label reliability. T o this end, in this paper, we introduce the Label Ensemble Graph Neural Network (LEGNN), a lower complexity method for robust GNNs training against label noise. Specifically, LEGNN conducts a two-step process: bootstrapping neighboring contexts and robust learning with gathered multiple labels. In the former step, we apply random neighbor masks for each node and gather the predicted labels as a high-probability label set. This mitigates the impact of inaccurately labeled neighbors and diversifies the label set. In the latter step, we utilize a partial label learning based strategy to aggregate the high-probability label information for model training. Additionally, we symmetrically gather a low-probability label set to counteract potential noise from the bootstrapped high-probability label set. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that LEGNN achieves outstanding performance while ensuring efficiency. Moreover, it exhibits good scalability on dataset with over one hundred thousand nodes and one million edges. Graph, as a ubiquitous data form in real world, can represent a variety of relational structures, such as social networks [1, 2], transportation systems [3, 4], taxpayer network [5, 6] and many more. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for capturing and analyzing graph-structured data, gaining significant attention in recent years [7, 8, 3, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]. Figure 1: A comparison between our proposed label ensemble method and existing reliable labeling methods. The colors of the nodes represent their labels, while the symbols " " and " " indicate whether the nodes are correctly or incorrectly labeled, respectively.

Since machine learning model is often trained on a limited data set, the model is trained multiple times on the same data sample, which causes the model to memorize most of the training set data. Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) exploit this feature to determine whether a data sample is used for training a machine learning model. However, in realistic scenarios, it is difficult for the adversary to obtain enough qualified samples that mark accurate identity information, especially since most samples are non-members in real world applications. To address this limitation, in this paper, we propose a new attack method called CLMIA, which uses unsupervised contrastive learning to train an attack model without using extra membership status information. Meanwhile, in CLMIA, we require only a small amount of data with known membership status to fine-tune the attack model. Experimental results demonstrate that CLMIA performs better than existing attack methods for different datasets and model structures, especially with data with less marked identity information. In addition, we experimentally find that the attack performs differently for different proportions of labeled identity information for member and non-member data. More analysis proves that our attack method performs better with less labeled identity information, which applies to more realistic scenarios.

In semiconductor manufacturing, wafer defect maps (WDMs) play a crucial role in diagnosing issues and enhancing process yields by revealing critical defect patterns. However, accurately categorizing WDM defects presents significant challenges due to noisy data, unbalanced defect classes, and the complexity of failure modes. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel method combining a self-encoder-based data augmentation technique with a convolutional neural network (CNN). By introducing noise into the latent space, the self-encoder enhances data diversity and mitigates class imbalance, thereby improving the model's generalization capabilities. The augmented dataset is subsequently used to train the CNN, enabling it to deliver precise classification of both common and rare defect patterns. Experimental results on the WM-811K dataset demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a classification accuracy of 98.56%, surpassing Random Forest, SVM, and Logistic Regression by 19%, 21%, and 27%, respectively. These findings highlight the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed approach, offering a reliable solution for wafer defect detection and classification.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) has created an urgent need for robust tools to detect LLM-generated text, especially in light of \textit{paraphrasing} techniques that often evade existing detection methods. To address this challenge, we present a novel semantic-enhanced framework for detecting LLM-generated text (SEFD) that leverages a retrieval-based mechanism to fully utilize text semantics. Our framework improves upon existing detection methods by systematically integrating retrieval-based techniques with traditional detectors, employing a carefully curated retrieval mechanism that strikes a balance between comprehensive coverage and computational efficiency. We showcase the effectiveness of our approach in sequential text scenarios common in real-world applications, such as online forums and Q\&A platforms. Through comprehensive experiments across various LLM-generated texts and detection methods, we demonstrate that our framework substantially enhances detection accuracy in paraphrasing scenarios while maintaining robustness for standard LLM-generated content.