New proposals for causal discovery algorithms are typically evaluated using simulations and a few select real data examples with known data generating mechanisms. However, there does not exist a general guideline for how such evaluation studies should be designed, and therefore, comparing results across different studies can be difficult. In this article, we propose a common evaluation baseline by posing the question: Are we doing better than random guessing? For the task of graph skeleton estimation, we derive exact distributional results under random guessing for the expected behavior of a range of typical causal discovery evaluation metrics (including precision and recall). We show that these metrics can achieve very large values under random guessing in certain scenarios, and hence warn against using them without also reporting negative control results, i.e., performance under random guessing. We also propose an exact test of overall skeleton fit, and showcase its use on a real data application. Finally, we propose a general pipeline for using random controls beyond the skeleton estimation task, and apply it both in a simulated example and a real data application.

This document explores the potential of employing Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically Natural Language Processing (NLP), to strengthen the detection and prevention of financial crimes within the Mobile Financial Services(MFS) of Bangladesh with multilingual scenario. The analysis focuses on the utilization of NLP for adverse media screening, a vital aspect of compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and combating financial terrorism (CFT) regulations. Additionally, it investigates the overall reception and obstacles related to the integration of AI in Bangladeshi banks. This report measures the effectiveness of NLP is promising with an accuracy around 94\%. NLP algorithms display substantial promise in accurately identifying adverse media content linked to financial crimes. The lack of progress in this aspect is visible in Bangladesh, whereas globally the technology is already being used to increase effectiveness and efficiency. Hence, it is clear there is an issue with the acceptance of AI in Bangladesh. Some AML \& CFT concerns are already being addressed by AI technology. For example, Image Recognition OCR technology are being used in KYC procedures. Primary hindrances to AI integration involve a lack of technical expertise, high expenses, and uncertainties surrounding regulations. This investigation underscores the potential of AI-driven NLP solutions in fortifying efforts to prevent financial crimes in Bangladesh.

The accurate prediction of antigen-antibody structures is essential for advancing immunology and therapeutic development, as it helps elucidate molecular interactions that underlie immune responses. Despite recent progress with deep learning models like AlphaFold and RoseTTAFold, accurately modeling antigen-antibody complexes remains a challenge due to their unique evolutionary characteristics. HelixFold-Multimer, a specialized model developed for this purpose, builds on the framework of AlphaFold-Multimer and demonstrates improved precision for antigen-antibody structures. HelixFold-Multimer not only surpasses other models in accuracy but also provides essential insights into antibody development, enabling more precise identification of binding sites, improved interaction prediction, and enhanced design of therapeutic antibodies. These advances underscore HelixFold-Multimer's potential in supporting antibody research and therapeutic innovation.

Over 30 million Americans are affected by Type II diabetes (T2D), a treatable condition with significant health risks. This study aims to develop and validate predictive models using machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate emergency department (ED) visits among patients with T2D. Data for these patients was obtained from the HealthShare Exchange (HSX), focusing on demographic details, diagnoses, and vital signs. Our sample contained 34,151 patients diagnosed with T2D which resulted in 703,065 visits overall between 2017 and 2021. A workflow integrated EMR data with SDoH for ML predictions. A total of 87 out of 2,555 features were selected for model construction. Various machine learning algorithms, including CatBoost, Ensemble Learning, K-nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Classification (SVC), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed with tenfold cross-validation to predict whether a patient is at risk of an ED visit. The ROC curves for Random Forest, XGBoost, Ensemble Learning, CatBoost, KNN, and SVC, were 0.82, 0.82, 0.82, 0.81, 0.72, 0.68, respectively. Ensemble Learning and Random Forest models demonstrated superior predictive performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability. These models are reliable tools for predicting risk of ED visits among patients with T2D. They can estimate future ED demand and assist clinicians in identifying critical factors associated with ED utilization, enabling early interventions to reduce such visits. The top five important features were age, the difference between visitation gaps, visitation gaps, R10 or abdominal and pelvic pain, and the Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) for income.

The credit spread is a key indicator in bond investments, offering valuable insights for fixed-income investors to devise effective trading strategies. This study proposes a novel credit spread forecasting model leveraging ensemble learning techniques. To enhance predictive accuracy, a feature selection method based on mutual information is incorporated. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology delivers superior accuracy in credit spread predictions. Additionally, we present a forecast of future credit spread trends using current data, providing actionable insights for investment decisionmaking. Credit spread has long been a critical focus for investors, particularly in the context of investment-grade corporate bonds, which have garnered even greater attention.

This research presents preliminary work to address the challenge of identifying at-risk students using supervised machine learning and three unique data categories: engagement, demographics, and performance data collected from Fall 2023 using Canvas and the California State University, Fullerton dashboard. We aim to tackle the persistent challenges of higher education retention and student dropout rates by screening for at-risk students and building a high-risk identification system. By focusing on previously overlooked behavioral factors alongside traditional metrics, this work aims to address educational gaps, enhance student outcomes, and significantly boost student success across disciplines at the University. Pre-processing steps take place to establish a target variable, anonymize student information, manage missing data, and identify the most significant features. Given the mixed data types in the datasets and the binary classification nature of this study, this work considers several machine learning models, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest. These models predict at-risk students and identify critical periods of the semester when student performance is most vulnerable. We will use validation techniques such as train test split and k-fold cross-validation to ensure the reliability of the models. Our analysis indicates that all algorithms generate an acceptable outcome for at-risk student predictions, while Naive Bayes performs best overall.

Cable broadband networks are one of the few "last-mile" broadband technologies widely available in the U.S. Unfortunately, they have poor reliability after decades of deployment. The cable industry proposed a framework called Proactive Network Maintenance (PNM) to diagnose the cable networks. However, there is little public knowledge or systematic study on how to use these data to detect and localize cable network problems. Existing tools in the public domain have prohibitive high false-positive rates. In this paper, we propose CableMon, the first public-domain system that applies machine learning techniques to PNM data to improve the reliability of cable broadband networks. CableMon tackles two key challenges faced by cable ISPs: accurately detecting failures, and distinguishing whether a failure occurs within a network or at a subscriber's premise. CableMon uses statistical models to generate features from time series data and uses customer trouble tickets as hints to infer abnormal/failure thresholds for these generated features. Further, CableMon employs an unsupervised learning model to group cable devices sharing similar anomalous patterns and effectively identify impairments that occur inside a cable network and impairments occur at a subscriber's premise, as these two different faults require different types of technical personnel to repair them. We use eight months of PNM data and customer trouble tickets from an ISP and experimental deployment to evaluate CableMon's performance. Our evaluation results show that CableMon can effectively detect and distinguish failures from PNM data and outperforms existing public-domain tools.

Stiffness estimation is crucial for delicate object manipulation in robotic and prosthetic hands but remains challenging due to dependence on force and displacement measurement and real-time sensory integration. This study presents a piezoelectric sensing framework for stiffness estimation at first contact during pinch grasps, addressing the limitations of traditional force-based methods. Inspired by human skin, a multimodal tactile sensor that captures vibrational and force data is developed and integrated into a prosthetic hand's fingertip. Machine learning models, including support vector machines and convolutional neural networks, demonstrate that vibrational signals within the critical 15 ms after first contact reliably encode stiffness, achieving classification accuracies up to 98.6% and regression errors as low as 2.39 Shore A on real-world objects of varying stiffness. Inference times of less than 1.5 ms are significantly faster than the average grasp closure time (16.65 ms in our dataset), enabling real-time stiffness estimation before the object is fully grasped. By leveraging the transient asymmetry in grasp dynamics, where one finger contacts the object before the others, this method enables early grasp modulation, enhancing safety and intuitiveness in prosthetic hands while offering broad applications in robotics.

Time Series Motif Discovery (TSMD), which aims at finding recurring patterns in time series, is an important task in numerous application domains, and many methods for this task exist. These methods are usually evaluated qualitatively. A few metrics for quantitative evaluation, where discovered motifs are compared to some ground truth, have been proposed, but they typically make implicit assumptions that limit their applicability. This paper introduces PROM, a broadly applicable metric that overcomes those limitations, and TSMD-Bench, a benchmark for quantitative evaluation of time series motif discovery. Experiments with PROM and TSMD-Bench show that PROM provides a more comprehensive evaluation than existing metrics, that TSMD-Bench is a more challenging benchmark than earlier ones, and that the combination can help understand the relative performance of TSMD methods. More generally, the proposed approach enables large-scale, systematic performance comparisons in this field.

The segmentation and classification of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging are critical for diagnosing heart conditions, yet current approaches face challenges in accuracy and generalizability. In this study, we aim to further advance the segmentation and classification of cardiac magnetic resonance images by introducing a novel deep learning-based approach. Using a multi-stage process with U-Net and ResNet models for segmentation, followed by Gaussian smoothing, the method improved segmentation accuracy, achieving a Dice coefficient of 0.974 for the left ventricle and 0.947 for the right ventricle. For classification, a cascade of deep learning classifiers was employed to distinguish heart conditions, including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, and dilated cardiomyopathy, achieving an average accuracy of 97.2%. The proposed approach outperformed existing models, enhancing segmentation accuracy and classification precision. These advancements show promise for clinical applications, though further validation and interpretation across diverse imaging protocols is necessary.