Performance Analysis
Interpretable Early Warnings using Machine Learning in an Online Game-experiment
Falmagne, Guillaume, Stephenson, Anna B., Levin, Simon A.
Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale social game, provides a unique opportunity to test these signals consistently across thousands of subsystems undergoing critical transitions. In r/place, millions of users collaboratively created compositions, or pixel-art drawings, in which transitions occur when one composition rapidly replaces another. We develop a machine-learning-based early warning system that combines the predictive power of multiple system-specific time series via gradient-boosted decision trees with memory-retaining features. Our method significantly outperforms standard early warning indicators. Trained on the 2022 r/place data, our algorithm detects half of the transitions occurring within 20 minutes at a false positive rate of just 3.7%. Its performance remains robust when tested on the 2023 r/place event, demonstrating generalizability across different contexts. Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for interpreting the predictions, we investigate the underlying drivers of warnings, which could be relevant to other complex systems, especially online social systems. We reveal an interplay of patterns preceding transitions, such as critical slowing down or speeding up, a lack of innovation or coordination, turbulent histories, and a lack of image complexity. These findings show the potential of machine learning indicators in socio-ecological systems for predicting regime shifts and understanding their dynamics.
Graph Diffusion Network for Drug-Gene Prediction
Wu, Jiayang, Gan, Wensheng, Yu, Philip S.
Predicting drug-gene associations is crucial for drug development and disease treatment. While graph neural networks (GNN) have shown effectiveness in this task, they face challenges with data sparsity and efficient contrastive learning implementation. We introduce a graph diffusion network for drug-gene prediction (GDNDGP), a framework that addresses these limitations through two key innovations. First, it employs meta-path-based homogeneous graph learning to capture drug-drug and gene-gene relationships, ensuring similar entities share embedding spaces. Second, it incorporates a parallel diffusion network that generates hard negative samples during training, eliminating the need for exhaustive negative sample retrieval. Our model achieves superior performance on the DGIdb 4.0 dataset and demonstrates strong generalization capability on tripartite drug-gene-disease networks. Results show significant improvements over existing methods in drug-gene prediction tasks, particularly in handling complex heterogeneous relationships. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/csjywu1/GDNDGP.
Leveraging Large Language Models to Enhance Machine Learning Interpretability and Predictive Performance: A Case Study on Emergency Department Returns for Mental Health Patients
Ahmed, Abdulaziz, Saleem, Mohammad, Alzeen, Mohammed, Birur, Badari, Fargason, Rachel E, Burk, Bradley G, Harkins, Hannah Rose, Alhassan, Ahmed, Al-Garadi, Mohammed Ali
Importance: Emergency department (ED) returns for mental health conditions pose a major healthcare burden, with 24-27% of patients returning within 30 days. Traditional machine learning models for predicting these returns often lack interpretability for clinical use. Objective: To assess whether integrating large language models (LLMs) with machine learning improves predictive accuracy and clinical interpretability of ED mental health return risk models. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed 42,464 ED visits for 27,904 unique mental health patients at an academic medical center in the Deep South from January 2018 to December 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Two primary outcomes were evaluated: (1) 30-day ED return prediction accuracy and (2) model interpretability using a novel LLM-enhanced framework integrating SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values with clinical knowledge. Results: For chief complaint classification, LLaMA 3 (8B) with 10-shot learning outperformed traditional models (accuracy: 0.882, F1-score: 0.86). In SDoH classification, LLM-based models achieved 0.95 accuracy and 0.96 F1-score, with Alcohol, Tobacco, and Substance Abuse performing best (F1: 0.96-0.89), while Exercise and Home Environment showed lower performance (F1: 0.70-0.67). The LLM-based interpretability framework achieved 99% accuracy in translating model predictions into clinically relevant explanations. LLM-extracted features improved XGBoost AUC from 0.74 to 0.76 and AUC-PR from 0.58 to 0.61. Conclusions and Relevance: Integrating LLMs with machine learning models yielded modest but consistent accuracy gains while significantly enhancing interpretability through automated, clinically relevant explanations. This approach provides a framework for translating predictive analytics into actionable clinical insights.
LiSA: Leveraging Link Recommender to Attack Graph Neural Networks via Subgraph Injection
Zhang, Wenlun, Dai, Enyan, Yoshioka, Kentaro
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in modeling data with graph structures, yet recent research reveals their susceptibility to adversarial attacks. Traditional attack methodologies, which rely on manipulating the original graph or adding links to artificially created nodes, often prove impractical in real-world settings. This paper introduces a novel adversarial scenario involving the injection of an isolated subgraph to deceive both the link recommender and the node classifier within a GNN system. Specifically, the link recommender is mislead to propose links between targeted victim nodes and the subgraph, encouraging users to unintentionally establish connections and that would degrade the node classification accuracy, thereby facilitating a successful attack. To address this, we present the LiSA framework, which employs a dual surrogate model and bi-level optimization to simultaneously meet two adversarial objectives. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.
Deployment-friendly Lane-changing Intention Prediction Powered by Brain-inspired Spiking Neural Networks
Shen, Shuqi, Yang, Junjie, Zhong, Hui, Zhang, Qiming, Lu, Hongliang, Yang, Hai
Accurate and real-time prediction of surrounding vehicles' lane-changing intentions is a critical challenge in deploying safe and efficient autonomous driving systems in open-world scenarios. Existing high-performing methods remain hard to deploy due to their high computational cost, long training times, and excessive memory requirements. Here, we propose an efficient lane-changing intention prediction approach based on brain-inspired Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). By leveraging the event-driven nature of SNN, the proposed approach enables us to encode the vehicle's states in a more efficient manner. Comparison experiments conducted on HighD and NGSIM datasets demonstrate that our method significantly improves training efficiency and reduces deployment costs while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy. Particularly, compared to the baseline, our approach reduces training time by 75% and memory usage by 99.9%. These results validate the efficiency and reliability of our method in lane-changing predictions, highlighting its potential for safe and efficient autonomous driving systems while offering significant advantages in deployment, including reduced training time, lower memory usage, and faster inference.
MedMimic: Physician-Inspired Multimodal Fusion for Early Diagnosis of Fever of Unknown Origin
Chen, Minrui, Zhou, Yi, Jiang, Huidong, Zhu, Yuhan, Zou, Guanjie, Chen, Minqi, Tian, Rong, Saigo, Hiroto
Fever of unknown origin FUO remains a diagnostic challenge. MedMimic is introduced as a multimodal framework inspired by real-world diagnostic processes. It uses pretrained models such as DINOv2, Vision Transformer, and ResNet-18 to convert high-dimensional 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging into low-dimensional, semantically meaningful features. A learnable self-attention-based fusion network then integrates these imaging features with clinical data for classification. Using 416 FUO patient cases from Sichuan University West China Hospital from 2017 to 2023, the multimodal fusion classification network MFCN achieved macro-AUROC scores ranging from 0.8654 to 0.9291 across seven tasks, outperforming conventional machine learning and single-modality deep learning methods. Ablation studies and five-fold cross-validation further validated its effectiveness. By combining the strengths of pretrained large models and deep learning, MedMimic offers a promising solution for disease classification.
Differential Adjusted Parity for Learning Fair Representations
Sahyouni, Bucher, Vowels, Matthew, Chen, Liqun, Hadfield, Simon
The development of fair and unbiased machine learning models remains an ongoing objective for researchers in the field of artificial intelligence. We introduce the Differential Adjusted Parity (DAP) loss to produce unbiased informative representations. It utilises a differentiable variant of the adjusted parity metric to create a unified objective function. By combining downstream task classification accuracy and its inconsistency across sensitive feature domains, it provides a single tool to increase performance and mitigate bias. A key element in this approach is the use of soft balanced accuracies. In contrast to previous non-adversarial approaches, DAP does not suffer a degeneracy where the metric is satisfied by performing equally poorly across all sensitive domains. It outperforms several adversarial models on downstream task accuracy and fairness in our analysis. Specifically, it improves the demographic parity, equalized odds and sensitive feature accuracy by as much as 22.5\%, 44.1\% and 40.1\%, respectively, when compared to the best performing adversarial approaches on these metrics. Overall, the DAP loss and its associated metric can play a significant role in creating more fair machine learning models.
A Novel Dialect-Aware Framework for the Classification of Arabic Dialects and Emotions
Arabic is one of the oldest languages still in use today. As a result, several Arabic-speaking regions have developed dialects that are unique to them. Dialect and emotion recognition have various uses in Arabic text analysis, such as determining an online customer's origin based on their comments. Furthermore, intelligent chatbots that are aware of a user's emotions can respond appropriately to the user. Current research in emotion detection in the Arabic language lacks awareness of how emotions are exhibited in different dialects, which motivates the work found in this study. This research addresses the problems of dialect and emotion classification in Arabic. Specifically, this is achieved by building a novel framework that can identify and predict Arabic dialects and emotions from a given text. The framework consists of three modules: A text-preprocessing module, a classification module, and a clustering module with the novel capability of building new dialect-aware emotion lexicons. The proposed framework generated a new emotional lexicon for different dialects. It achieved an accuracy of 88.9% in classifying Arabic dialects, which outperforms the state-of-the-art results by 6.45 percentage points. Furthermore, the framework achieved 89.1-79% accuracy in detecting emotions in the Egyptian and Gulf dialects, respectively.
Objective quantification of mood states using large language models
Emotional states influence human behaviour and cognition, leading to diverse thought trajectories. Similarly, Large Language Models (LLMs) showcase an excellent level of response consistency across wide-ranging contexts (prompts). We leverage these parallels to establish a framework for quantifying mental states. Our approach utilises self-report questionnaires that reliably assess these states due to their inherent sensitivity to patterns of co-occurring responses. Specifically, we recruited a large sample of participants (N=422) to investigate how well an LLM (Mistral-7B-OpenOrca) quantifies a heterogenous set of depressive mood states measured with participants' open-ended responses to a depression questionnaire. We show LLM responses to held-out multiple-choice questions, given participants' open-ended answers, correlate strongly (r: 0.52-0.84) with true questionnaire scores, demonstrating LLM's generalisation from mood representations. We explore a link between these representations and factor analysis. Using ridge regression, we find depression-related subspaces within LLM hidden states. We show these subspaces to be predictive of participants' "Depression" and "Somatic & Emotional Distress" factor scores, as well as suicidality severity. Overall, LLMs can provide quantitative measures of mental states. The reliability of these hinges upon how informative the questions we ask participants are. Used correctly, this approach could supplement mental state assessment in a variety of settings.
Face Deepfakes - A Comprehensive Review
Fernando, Tharindu, Priyasad, Darshana, Sridharan, Sridha, Ross, Arun, Fookes, Clinton
In recent years, remarkable advancements in deep- fake generation technology have led to unprecedented leaps in its realism and capabilities. Despite these advances, we observe a notable lack of structured and deep analysis deepfake technology. The principal aim of this survey is to contribute a thorough theoretical analysis of state-of-the-art face deepfake generation and detection methods. Furthermore, we provide a coherent and systematic evaluation of the implications of deepfakes on face biometric recognition approaches. In addition, we outline key applications of face deepfake technology, elucidating both positive and negative applications of the technology, provide a detailed discussion regarding the gaps in existing research, and propose key research directions for further investigation.