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 Performance Analysis


Modeling Habitat Shifts: Integrating Convolutional Neural Networks and Tabular Data for Species Migration Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to climate-induced changes, many habitats are experiencing range shifts away from their traditional geographic locations (Piguet, 2011). We propose a solution to accurately model whether bird species are present in a specific habitat through the combination of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) (O'Shea, 2015) and tabular data. Our approach makes use of satellite imagery and environmental features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) to predict bird presence across various climates. The CNN model captures spatial characteristics of landscapes such as forestation, water bodies, and urbanization, whereas the tabular method uses ecological and geographic data. Both systems predict the distribution of birds with an average accuracy of 85%, offering a scalable but reliable method to understand bird migration.


PhreshPhish: A Real-World, High-Quality, Large-Scale Phishing Website Dataset and Benchmark

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Phishing remains a pervasive and growing threat, inflicting heavy economic and reputational damage. While machine learning has been effective in real-time detection of phishing attacks, progress is hindered by lack of large, high-quality datasets and benchmarks. In addition to poor-quality due to challenges in data collection, existing datasets suffer from leakage and unrealistic base rates, leading to overly optimistic performance results. In this paper, we introduce PhreshPhish, a large-scale, high-quality dataset of phishing websites that addresses these limitations. Compared to existing public datasets, PhreshPhish is substantially larger and provides significantly higher quality, as measured by the estimated rate of invalid or mislabeled data points. Additionally, we propose a comprehensive suite of benchmark datasets specifically designed for realistic model evaluation by minimizing leakage, increasing task difficulty, enhancing dataset diversity, and adjustment of base rates more likely to be seen in the real world. We train and evaluate multiple solution approaches to provide baseline performance on the benchmark sets. We believe the availability of this dataset and benchmarks will enable realistic, standardized model comparison and foster further advances in phishing detection. The datasets and benchmarks are available on Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/datasets/phreshphish/phreshphish).


SENSOR: An ML-Enhanced Online Annotation Tool to Uncover Privacy Concerns from User Reviews in Social-Media Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread use of social media applications has raised significant privacy concerns, often highlighted in user reviews. These reviews also provide developers with valuable insights into improving apps by addressing issues and introducing better features. However, the sheer volume and nuanced nature of reviews make manual identification and prioritization of privacy-related concerns challenging for developers. Previous studies have developed software utilities to automatically classify user reviews as privacy-relevant, privacy-irrelevant, bug reports, feature requests, etc., using machine learning. Notably, there is a lack of focus on classifying reviews specifically as privacy-related feature requests, privacy-related bug reports, or privacy-irrelevant. This paper introduces SENtinel SORt (SENSOR), an automated online annotation tool designed to help developers annotate and classify user reviews into these categories. For automating the annotation of such reviews, this paper introduces the annotation model, GRACE (GRU-based Attention with CBOW Embedding), using Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) with Continuous Bag of Words (CBOW) and Attention mechanism. Approximately 16000 user reviews from seven popular social media apps on Google Play Store, including Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook Lite, and Line were analyzed. Two annotators manually labelled the reviews, achieving a Cohen's Kappa value of 0.87, ensuring a labeled dataset with high inter-rater agreement for training machine learning models. Among the models tested, GRACE demonstrated the best performance (macro F1-score: 0.9434, macro ROC-AUC: 0.9934, and accuracy: 95.10%) despite class imbalance. SENSOR demonstrates significant potential to assist developers with extracting and addressing privacy-related feature requests or bug reports from user reviews, enhancing user privacy and trust.


Sharp Trade-Offs in High-Dimensional Inference via 2-Level SLOPE

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Among techniques for high-dimensional linear regression, Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation (SLOPE) generalizes the LASSO via an adaptive $l_1$ regularization that applies heavier penalties to larger coefficients in the model. To achieve such adaptivity, SLOPE requires the specification of a complex hierarchy of penalties, i.e., a monotone penalty sequence in $R^p$, in contrast to a single penalty scalar for LASSO. Tuning this sequence when $p$ is large poses a challenge, as brute force search over a grid of values is computationally prohibitive. In this work, we study the 2-level SLOPE, an important subclass of SLOPE, with only three hyperparameters. We demonstrate both empirically and analytically that 2-level SLOPE not only preserves the advantages of general SLOPE -- such as improved mean squared error and overcoming the Donoho-Tanner power limit -- but also exhibits computational benefits by reducing the penalty hyperparameter space. In particular, we prove that 2-level SLOPE admits a sharp, theoretically tight characterization of the trade-off between true positive proportion (TPP) and false discovery proportion (FDP), contrasting with general SLOPE where only upper and lower bounds are known. Empirical evaluations further underscore the effectiveness of 2-level SLOPE in settings where predictors exhibit high correlation, when the noise is large, or when the underlying signal is not sparse. Our results suggest that 2-level SLOPE offers a robust, scalable alternative to both LASSO and general SLOPE, making it particularly suited for practical high-dimensional data analysis.


Underrepresentation, Label Bias, and Proxies: Towards Data Bias Profiles for the EU AI Act and Beyond

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Undesirable biases encoded in the data are key drivers of algorithmic discrimination. Their importance is widely recognized in the algorithmic fairness literature, as well as legislation and standards on anti-discrimination in AI. Despite this recognition, data biases remain understudied, hindering the development of computational best practices for their detection and mitigation. In this work, we present three common data biases and study their individual and joint effect on algorithmic discrimination across a variety of datasets, models, and fairness measures. We find that underrepresentation of vulnerable populations in training sets is less conducive to discrimination than conventionally affirmed, while combinations of proxies and label bias can be far more critical. Consequently, we develop dedicated mechanisms to detect specific types of bias, and combine them into a preliminary construct we refer to as the Data Bias Profile (DBP). This initial formulation serves as a proof of concept for how different bias signals can be systematically documented. Through a case study with popular fairness datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the DBP in predicting the risk of discriminatory outcomes and the utility of fairness-enhancing interventions. Overall, this article bridges algorithmic fairness research and anti-discrimination policy through a data-centric lens.


Uncovering symmetric and asymmetric species associations from community and environmental data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is no much doubt that biotic interactions shape community assembly and ultimately the spatial co-variations between species. There is a hope that the signal of these biotic interactions can be observed and retrieved by investigating the spatial associations between species while accounting for the direct effects of the environment. By definition, biotic interactions can be both symmetric and asymmetric. Yet, most models that attempt to retrieve species associations from co-occurrence or co-abundance data internally assume symmetric relationships between species. Here, we propose and validate a machine-learning framework able to retrieve bidirectional associations by analyzing species community and environmental data. Our framework (1) models pairwise species associations as directed influences from a source to a target species, parameterized with two species-specific latent embeddings: the effect of the source species on the community, and the response of the target species to the community; and (2) jointly fits these associations within a multi-species conditional generative model with different modes of interactions between environmental drivers and biotic associations. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate the ability of our framework to recover known asymmetric and symmetric associations and highlight the properties of the learned association networks. By comparing our approach to other existing models such as joint species distribution models and probabilistic graphical models, we show its superior capacity at retrieving symmetric and asymmetric interactions. The framework is intuitive, modular and broadly applicable across various taxonomic groups.


Robust Spatiotemporal Epidemic Modeling with Integrated Adaptive Outlier Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In epidemic modeling, outliers can distort parameter estimation and ultimately lead to misguided public health decisions. Although there are existing robust methods that can mitigate this distortion, the ability to simultaneously detect outliers is equally vital for identifying potential disease hotspots. In this work, we introduce a robust spatiotemporal generalized additive model (RST-GAM) to address this need. We accomplish this with a mean-shift parameter to quantify and adjust for the effects of outliers and rely on adaptive Lasso regularization to model the sparsity of outlying observations. We use univariate polynomial splines and bivariate penalized splines over triangulations to estimate the functional forms and a data-thinning approach for data-adaptive weight construction. We derive a scalable proximal algorithm to estimate model parameters by minimizing a convex negative log-quasi-likelihood function. Our algorithm uses adaptive step-sizes to ensure global convergence of the resulting iterate sequence. We establish error bounds and selection consistency for the estimated parameters and demonstrate our model's effectiveness through numerical studies under various outlier scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of RST-GAM by analyzing county-level COVID-19 infection data in the United States, highlighting its potential to inform public health decision-making.


Simulating Biases for Interpretable Fairness in Offline and Online Classifiers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Predictive models often reinforce biases which were originally embedded in their training data, through skewed decisions. In such cases, mitigation methods are critical to ensure that, regardless of the prevailing disparities, model outcomes are adjusted to be fair. To assess this, datasets could be systematically generated with specific biases, to train machine learning classifiers. Then, predictive outcomes could aid in the understanding of this bias embedding process. Hence, an agent-based model (ABM), depicting a loan application process that represents various systemic biases across two demographic groups, was developed to produce synthetic datasets. Then, by applying classifiers trained on them to predict loan outcomes, we can assess how biased data leads to unfairness. This highlights a main contribution of this work: a framework for synthetic dataset generation with controllable bias injection. We also contribute with a novel explainability technique, which shows how mitigations affect the way classifiers leverage data features, via second-order Shapley values. In experiments, both offline and online learning approaches are employed. Mitigations are applied at different stages of the modelling pipeline, such as during pre-processing and in-processing.


Information Must Flow: Recursive Bootstrapping for Information Bottleneck in Optimal Transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present the Context-Content Uncertainty Principle (CCUP), a unified framework that models cognition as the directed flow of information between high-entropy context and low-entropy content. Inference emerges as a cycle of bidirectional interactions, bottom-up contextual disambiguation paired with top-down content reconstruction, which resolves the Information Bottleneck in Optimal Transport (iBOT). Implemented via Rao-Blackwellized variational entropy minimization, CCUP steers representations toward minimal joint uncertainty while preserving inferential directionality. Local cycle completion underpins temporal bootstrapping, chaining simulations to refine memory, and spatial bootstrapping, enabling compositional hierarchical inference. We prove a Delta Convergence Theorem showing that recursive entropy minimization yields delta-like attractors in latent space, stabilizing perceptual schemas and motor plans. Temporal bootstrapping through perception-action loops and sleep-wake consolidation further transforms episodic traces into semantic knowledge. Extending CCUP, each hierarchical level performs delta-seeded inference: low-entropy content seeds diffuse outward along goal-constrained paths shaped by top-down priors and external context, confining inference to task-relevant manifolds and circumventing the curse of dimensionality. Building on this, we propose that language emerges as a symbolic transport system, externalizing latent content to synchronize inference cycles across individuals. Together, these results establish iBOT as a foundational principle of information flow in both individual cognition and collective intelligence, positioning recursive inference as the structured conduit through which minds adapt, align, and extend.


Towards High Supervised Learning Utility Training Data Generation: Data Pruning and Column Reordering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tabular data synthesis for supervised learning ('SL') model training is gaining popularity in industries such as healthcare, finance, and retail. Despite the progress made in tabular data generators, models trained with synthetic data often underperform compared to those trained with original data. This low SL utility of synthetic data stems from class imbalance exaggeration and SL data relationship overlooked by tabular generator. To address these challenges, we draw inspirations from techniques in emerging data-centric artificial intelligence and elucidate Pruning and ReOrdering ('PRRO'), a novel pipeline that integrates data-centric techniques into tabular data synthesis. PRRO incorporates data pruning to guide the table generator towards observations with high signal-to-noise ratio, ensuring that the class distribution of synthetic data closely matches that of the original data. Besides, PRRO employs a column reordering algorithm to align the data modeling structure of generators with that of SL models. These two modules enable PRRO to optimize SL utility of synthetic data. Empirical experiments on 22 public datasets show that synthetic data generated using PRRO enhances predictive performance compared to data generated without PRRO. Specifically, synthetic replacement of original data yields an average improvement of 26.74% and up to 871.46% improvement using PRRO, while synthetic appendant to original data results with PRRO-generated data results in an average improvement of 6.13% and up to 200.32%. Furthermore, experiments on six highly imbalanced datasets show that PRRO enables the generator to produce synthetic data with a class distribution that resembles the original data more closely, achieving a similarity improvement of 43%. Through PRRO, we foster a seamless integration of data synthesis to subsequent SL prediction, promoting quality and accessible data analysis.