Performance Analysis
Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches
Araz, Jack Y., Spannowsky, Michael
Machine-learned anomaly detection is reshaping searches for new physics, but it has outrun the statistics used to interpret it. A raw anomaly score has no calibrated meaning, a model that scans many regions inflates the look-elsewhere effect, and the asymptotic significances the field relies on are blind to the background mismodelling that anomaly detectors are especially prone to. We propose a calibration layer, built on conformal prediction, that turns any anomaly score into a defensible significance with distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees. Conformal prediction converts scores into valid local p-values, weighted and Mondrian variants repair the sideband-to-signal-region exchangeability failures that resonant searches suffer, and a Gross-Vitells step carries the result through to a look-elsewhere-aware global significance. The layer does two things at once. It exposes miscalibration that the standard pipeline cannot see, and it corrects it without retraining the detector. On public LHC Olympics data, a classifier develops a substructure-mass correlation that makes sideband-calibrated background p-values anti-conservative. Taken at face value, this manufactures a $\sim 46ฯ$ excess from background sculpting alone, which the label-free weighted correction removes, restoring an honest null. When run as a blind wide-mass bump hunt, the standard asymptotic and unweighted procedures fabricate $\gtrsim10ฯ$ excesses and $\approx5ฯ$ excesses even in signal-free windows, while the conformal layer raises no false alarms and its global false-positive rate is verified on background-only pseudoexperiments. The result is an auditable, detector-agnostic path from an uncalibrated score to a trials-factor-aware significance, ready to be folded into experimental anomaly searches.
Some Optimizers are More Equal: Understanding the Role of Optimizers in Group Fairness
We study whether and how the choice of optimization algorithm can impact group fairness in deep neural networks. Through stochastic differential equation analysis of optimization dynamics in an analytically tractable setup, we demonstrate that the choice of optimization algorithm indeed influences fairness outcomes, particularly under severe imbalance. Furthermore, we show that when comparing two categories of optimizers, adaptive methods and stochastic methods, RMSProp (from the adaptive category) has a higher likelihood of converging to fairer minima than SGD (from the stochastic category). Building on this insight, we derive two new theoretical guarantees showing that, under appropriate conditions, RMSProp exhibits fairer parameter updates and improved fairness in a single optimization step compared to SGD.
GOOD: Training-Free Guided Diffusion Sampling for Out-of-Distribution Detection
Recent advancements have explored text-to-image diffusion models for synthesizing out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, substantially enhancing the performance of OOD detection. However, existing approaches typically rely on perturbing textconditioned embeddings, resulting in semantic instability and insufficient shift diversity, which limit generalization to realistic OOD. To address these challenges, we propose GOOD, a novel and flexible framework that directly guides diffusion sampling trajectories towards OOD regions using off-the-shelf in-distribution (ID) classifiers. GOOD incorporates dual-level guidance: (1) Image-level guidance based on the gradient of log partition to reduce input likelihood, drives samples toward low-density regions in pixel space.
Feature Unlearning: Theoretical Foundations and Practical Applications with Shuffling
Machine unlearning has become a focal point in recent research, yet the specific area of feature unlearning has not been thoroughly explored. Feature unlearning involves eliminating specific features' effects from an already trained model, presenting distinct challenges that are not yet comprehensively addressed. This paper presents a novel and straightforward approach to feature unlearning that employs a tactical shuffling of the features designated for removal. By redistributing the values of the features targeted for unlearning throughout the original training dataset and subsequently fine-tuning the model with this shuffled data, our proposed method provides a theoretical guarantee for effective feature unlearning. Under mild assumptions, our method can effectively disrupt the established correlations between unlearned features and the label, while preserving the relationships between the remaining features and the label. Across both tabular and image datasets, our empirical results show that our method not only effectively and efficiently removes the influence of designated features but also preserves the information content of the remaining features.
Aligning Evaluation with Clinical Priorities: Calibration, Label Shift, and Error Costs
Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such as accuracy and AUC-ROC, fail to adequately reflect key clinical priorities, including calibration, robustness to distributional shifts, and sensitivity to asymmetric error costs. In this work, we propose a principled yet practical evaluation framework for selecting calibrated thresholded classifiers that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in class prevalences and domain-specific cost asymmetries. Building on the theory of proper scoring rules, particularly the Schervish representation, we derive an adjusted variant of cross-entropy (log score) that averages cost-weighted performance over clinically relevant ranges of class balance. The resulting evaluation is simple to apply, sensitive to clinical deployment conditions, and designed to prioritize models that are both calibrated and robust to real-world variations.
Beyond Prediction: Managing the Repercussions of Machine Learning Applications
Machine learning models are often designed to maximize a primary goal, such as accuracy. However, as these models are increasingly used to inform decisions that affect people's lives or well-being, it is often unclear what the real-world repercussions of their deployment might be--making it crucial to understand and manage such repercussions effectively. Models maximizing user engagement on social media platforms, e.g., may inadvertently contribute to the spread of misinformation and content that deepens political polarization. This issue is not limited to social media--it extends to other applications where machine learning-informed decisions can have real-world repercussions, such as education, employment, and lending. Existing methods addressing this issue require prior knowledge or estimates of analytical models describing the relationship between a classifier's predictions and their corresponding repercussions. We introduce THEIA, a novel classification algorithm capable of optimizing a primary objective, such as accuracy, while providing high-confidence guarantees about its potential repercussions. Importantly, THEIA solves the open problem of providing such guarantees based solely on existing data with observations of previous repercussions. We prove that it satisfies constraints on a model's repercussions with high confidence and that it is guaranteed to identify a solution, if one exists, given sufficient data. We empirically demonstrate, using real-life data, that THEIA can identify models that achieve high accuracy while ensuring, with high confidence, that constraints on their repercussions are satisfied.
ConceptScope: Characterizing Dataset Bias via Disentangled Visual Concepts
Dataset bias, where data points are skewed to certain concepts, is ubiquitous in machine learning datasets. Yet, systematically identifying these biases is challenging without costly, fine-grained attribute annotations. We present ConceptScope, a scalable and automated framework for analyzing visual datasets by discovering and quantifying human-interpretable concepts using Sparse Autoencoders trained on representations from vision foundation models. ConceptScope categorizes concepts into target, context, and bias types based on their semantic relevance and statistical correlation to class labels, enabling class-level dataset characterization, bias identification, and robustness evaluation through concept-based subgrouping.
FraPPE: Fast and Efficient Preference-based Pure Exploration
Preference-based Pure Exploration (PrePEx) aims to identify with a given confidence level the set of Pareto optimal arms in a vector-valued (aka multi-objective) bandit, where the reward vectors are ordered via a (given) preference cone C. Though PrePEx and its variants are well-studied, there does not exist a computationally efficient algorithm that can optimally track the existing lower bound (Shukla and Basu, 2024) for arbitrary preference cones. We successfully fill this gap by efficiently solving the minimisation and maximisation problems in the lower bound. First, we derive three structural properties of the lower bound that yield a computationally tractable reduction of the minimisation problem. Then, we deploy a Frank-Wolfe optimiser to accelerate the maximisation problem in the lower bound. Together, these techniques solve the maxmin optimisation problem in O(KL2) time for a bandit instance with K arms and L dimensional reward, which is a significant acceleration over the literature. We further prove that our proposed PrePEx algorithm, FraPPE, asymptotically achieves the optimal sample complexity. Finally, we perform numerical experiments across synthetic and real datasets demonstrating that FraPPE achieves the lowest sample complexities to identify the exact Pareto set among the existing algorithms.
Reliably Detecting Model Failures in Deployment Without Labels
The distribution of data changes over time; models operating in dynamic environments need retraining. But knowing when to retrain, without access to labels, is an open challenge since some, but not all shifts degrade model performance. This paper formalizes and addresses the problem of post-deployment deterioration (PDD) monitoring. We propose D3M, a practical and efficient monitoring algorithm based on the disagreement of predictive models, achieving low false positive rates under non-deteriorating shifts and provides sample complexity bounds for high true positive rates under deteriorating shifts. Empirical results on both standard benchmark and a real-world large-scale internal medicine dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework and highlight its viability as an alert mechanism for high-stakes machine learning pipelines.