As hypothesis generation becomes increasingly automated, a new bottleneck has emerged: hypothesis assessment. Modern systems can surface thousands of statistical relationships-correlations, trends, causal links-but offer little guidance on which ones are novel, non-trivial, or worthy of expert attention. In this work, we study the complementary problem to hypothesis generation: automatic hypothesis assessment. Specifically, we ask-given a large set of statistical relationships, can we automatically assess which ones are novel and worth further exploration? We focus on correlations as they are a common entry point in exploratory data analysis that often serve as the basis for forming deeper scientific or causal hypotheses.

Safety validation, which assesses the safety of an autonomous system's motion planning decisions, is critical for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.

Correct model interpretation in high-stakes settings is critical, yet both post-hoc feature attribution methods and so-called intrinsically interpretable models can systematically attribute false-positive importance to non-informative features such as suppressor variables. Specifically, both linear models and their powerful nonlinear generalisation such as General Additive Models (GAMs) are susceptible to spurious attributions to suppressors. We present a principled generalisation of activation patterns - originally developed to make linear models interpretable - to additive models, correctly rejecting suppressor effects for non-linear features. This yields PatternGAM, an importance attribution method based on univariate generative surrogate models for the broad family of additive models, and PatternQLR for polynomial models. Empirical evaluations on the XAI-TRIS benchmark with a novel false-negative invariant formulation of the earth mover's distance accuracy metric demonstrates significant improvements over popular feature attribution methods and the traditional interpretation of additive models. Finally, real-world case studies on the COMPAS and MIMIC-IV datasets provide new insights into the role of specific features by disentangling genuine target-related information from suppression effects that would mislead conventional GAM interpretations.

State-of-the-art embeddings often capture distinct yet complementary discriminative features: For instance, one image embedding model may excel at distinguishing fine-grained textures, while another focuses on object-level structure. Motivated by this observation, we propose a principled approach to fuse such complementary representations through kernel multiplication. Multiplying the kernel similarity functions of two embeddings allows their discriminative structures to interact, producing a fused representation whose kernel encodes the union of the clusters identified by each parent embedding. This formulation also provides a natural way to construct joint kernels for paired multi-modal data (e.g., image-text tuples), where the product of modality-specific kernels inherits structure from both domains. We highlight that this kernel product is mathematically realized via the Kronecker product of the embedding feature maps, yielding our proposed KrossFuse framework for embedding fusion. To address the computational cost of the resulting high-dimensional Kronecker space, we further develop RP KrossFuse, a scalable variant that leverages random projections for efficient approximation. As a key application, we use this framework to bridge the performance gap between cross-modal embeddings (e.g., CLIP, BLIP) and unimodal experts (e.g., DINOv2, E5). Experiments show that RP KrossFuse effectively integrates these models, enhancing modality-specific performance while preserving cross-modal alignment.

We develop practical and theoretically grounded membership inference attacks (MIAs) against both independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data and graphstructured data. Building on the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework of [1], we derive the Bayes-optimal membership inference rule for node-level MIAs against graph neural networks, addressing key open questions about optimal query strategies in the graph setting. We introduce BASE and G-BASE, tractable approximations of the Bayes-optimal membership inference. G-BASE achieves superior performance compared to previously proposed classifier-based node-level MIA attacks. BASE, which is also applicable to non-graph data, matches or exceeds the performance of prior state-of-the-art MIAs, such as LiRA and RMIA, at a significantly lower computational cost. Finally, we show that BASE and RMIA are equivalent under a specific hyperparameter setting, providing a principled, Bayes-optimal justification for the RMIA attack.

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable promise for democratizing automated reasoning by generating formal specifications. However, a fundamental tension exists: LLMs are probabilistic, while formal verification demands deterministic guarantees.

Large language models are increasingly customized through fine-tuning and other adaptations, creating challenges in enforcing licensing terms and managing downstream impacts such as protecting intellectual property or identifying vulnerabilities. We address this challenge by developing a framework for testing model provenance. Our approach is based on the key observation that real-world model derivations preserve significant similarities in model outputs that can be detected through statistical analysis. Using only black-box access to models, we employ multiple hypothesis testing to compare model similarities against a baseline established by unrelated models. On two comprehensive real-world benchmarks spanning models from 30M to 4B parameters and comprising over 600 models, our tester achieves 90 95% precision and 80 90% recall in identifying derived models. These results demonstrate the viability of systematic provenance verification in production environments even when only API access is available.

Flow-based generative models achieve state-of-the-art sample quality, but require the expensive solution of a differential equation at inference time. Flow map models, commonly known as consistency models, encompass many recent efforts to improve inference-time efficiency by learning the solution operator of this differential equation. Yet despite their promise, these models lack a unified description that clearly explains how to learn them efficiently in practice. Here, building on the methodology proposed in Boffi et al. (2024), we present a systematic algorithmic framework for directly learning the flow map associated with a flow or diffusion model. By exploiting a relationship between the velocity field underlying a continuous-time flow and the instantaneous rate of change of the flow map, we show how to convert any distillation scheme into a direct training algorithm via self-distillation, eliminating the need for pre-trained teachers. We introduce three algorithmic families based on different mathematical characterizations of the flow map: Eulerian, Lagrangian, and Progressive methods, which we show encompass and extend all known distillation and direct training schemes for consistency models. We find that the novel class of Lagrangian methods, which avoid both spatial derivatives and bootstrapping from small steps by design, achieve significantly more stable training and higher performance than more standard Eulerian and Progressive schemes. Our methodology unifies existing training schemes under a single common framework and reveals new design principles for accelerated generative modeling.

In this regard, model watermarking is a common practice for IP protection that embeds traceable information within models and allows for further verification. Nevertheless, existing watermarking schemes often face challenges due to their vulnerability to fine-tuning, limiting their practical application in general pretraining and fine-tuning paradigms. Inspired by using mode connectivity to analyze model performance between a pair of connected models, we investigate watermark vulnerability by leveraging Linear Mode Connectivity (LMC) as a proxy to analyze the fine-tuning dynamics of watermark performance. Our results show that existing watermarked models tend to converge to sharp minima in the loss landscape, thus making them vulnerable to fine-tuning. To tackle this challenge, we propose RoMa, a Robust Model watermarking scheme that improves the robustness of watermarks against fine-tuning. Specifically, RoMa decomposes watermarking into two components, including Embedding Functionality, which preserves reliable watermark detection capability, and Path-specific Smoothness, which enhances the smoothness along the watermark-connected path to improve robustness. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets MS-COCO-2017 and CUB-200-2011 demonstrate that RoMa significantly improves watermark robustness against fine-tuning while maintaining generation quality, outperforming baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/xiekks/RoMa.

Gradient boosting is widely popular due to its flexibility and predictive accuracy. However, statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting remain challenging and under-explored. We propose a unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression. Our framework integrates dropout or parallel training with a recently proposed regularization procedure called Boulevard that allows for a central limit theorem (CLT) for boosting. With these enhancements, we surprisingly find that increasing the dropout rate and the number of trees grown in parallel at each iteration substantially enhances signal recovery and overall performance. Our resulting algorithms enjoy similar CLTs, which we use to construct built-in confidence intervals, prediction intervals, and rigorous hypothesis tests for assessing variable importance in only O(nd2) time with the Nystr om method. Numerical experiments verify the asymptotic normality and demonstrate that our algorithms perform well, do not require early stopping, interpolate between regularized boosting and random forests, and confirm the validity of their built-in statistical inference procedures.