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 Performance Analysis


Leveraging LLMs to Streamline the Review of Public Funding Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Every year, the European Union and its member states allocate millions of euros to fund various development initiatives. However, the increasing number of applications received for these programs often creates significant bottlenecks in evaluation processes, due to limited human capacity. In this work, we detail the real-world deployment of AI-assisted evaluation within the pipeline of two government initiatives: (i) corporate applications aimed at international business expansion, and (ii) citizen reimbursement claims for investments in energy-efficient home improvements. While these two cases involve distinct evaluation procedures, our findings confirm that AI effectively enhanced processing efficiency and reduced workload across both types of applications. Specifically, in the citizen reimbursement claims initiative, our solution increased reviewer productivity by 20.1%, while keeping a negligible false-positive rate based on our test set observations. These improvements resulted in an overall reduction of more than 2 months in the total evaluation time, illustrating the impact of AI-driven automation in large-scale evaluation workflows.


Data Provenance Auditing of Fine-Tuned Large Language Models with a Text-Preserving Technique

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address the problem of auditing whether sensitive or copyrighted texts were used to fine-tune large language models (LLMs) under black-box access. Prior signals-verbatim regurgitation and membership inference-are unreliable at the level of individual documents or require altering the visible text. We introduce a text-preserving watermarking framework that embeds sequences of invisible Unicode characters into documents. Each watermark is split into a cue (embedded in odd chunks) and a reply (embedded in even chunks). At audit time, we submit prompts that contain only the cue; the presence of the corresponding reply in the model's output provides evidence of memorization consistent with training on the marked text. To obtain sound decisions, we compare the score of the published watermark against a held-out set of counterfactual watermarks and apply a ranking test with a provable false-positive-rate bound. The design is (i) minimally invasive (no visible text changes), (ii) scalable to many users and documents via a large watermark space and multi-watermark attribution, and (iii) robust to common passive transformations. We evaluate on open-weight LLMs and multiple text domains, analyzing regurgitation dynamics, sensitivity to training set size, and interference under multiple concurrent watermarks. Our results demonstrate reliable post-hoc provenance signals with bounded FPR under black-box access. We experimentally observe a failure rate of less than 0.1\% when detecting a reply after fine-tuning with 50 marked documents. Conversely, no spurious reply was recovered in over 18,000 challenges, corresponding to a 100\%TPR@0\% FPR. Moreover, detection rates remain relatively stable as the dataset size increases, maintaining a per-document detection rate above 45\% even when the marked collection accounts for less than 0.33\% of the fine-tuning data.


TinyViT-Batten: Few-Shot Vision Transformer with Explainable Attention for Early Batten-Disease Detection on Pediatric MRI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Batten disease (neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis) is a rare pediatric neurodegenerative disorder whose early MRI signs are subtle and often missed. We propose TinyViT-Batten, a few-shot Vision Transformer (ViT) framework to detect early Batten disease from pediatric brain MRI with limited training cases. Our model achieves high accuracy ( 91%) and area under ROC 0.95 on a multi-site dataset of 79 genetically confirmed Batten-disease MRIs (27 CLN3 from the Hochstein natural-history study, 32 CLN2 from an international longitudinal cohort, 12 early-manifestation CLN2 cases reported by ร‡okal et al., and 8 public Radiopaedia scans) together with 90 age-matched controls, outperforming a 3D-ResNet and Swin-Tiny baseline. We further integrate Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) to highlight disease-relevant brain regions, enabling explainable predictions. The model ' s small size and strong performance (sensitivity >90%, specificity 90%), demonstrates a practical AI solution for early Batten disease detection. Batten disease, or neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (NCL), comprises a group of rare lysosomal storage disorders that cause progressive neurodegeneration in children [1]. Early signs on brain MRI can include subtle cerebral and cerebellar atrophy and faint white-matter signal changes. However, these findings are often non-specific and easily overlooked [1]. Early detection of Batten disease is critical--recently an enzyme replacement therapy was approved for CLN2 (late-infantile NCL) [3] and gene therapies for other subtypes are in trials.


Risk-Calibrated Bayesian Streaming Intrusion Detection with SRE-Aligned Decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a risk-calibrated approach to streaming intrusion detection that couples Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection (BOCPD) with decision thresholds aligned to Site Reliability Engineering (SRE) error budgets. BOCPD provides run-length posteriors that adapt to distribution shift and concept drift; we map these posteriors to alert decisions by optimizing expected operational cost under false-positive and false-negative budgets. We detail the hazard model, conjugate updates, and an O(1)-per-event implementation. A concrete SRE example shows how a 99.9% availability SLO (43.2 minutes per month error budget) yields a probability threshold near 0.91 when missed incidents are 10x more costly than false alarms. We evaluate on the full UNSW-NB15 and CIC-IDS2017 benchmarks with chronological splits, comparing against strong unsupervised baselines (ECOD, COPOD, and LOF). Metrics include PR-AUC, ROC-AUC, Brier score, calibration reliability diagrams, and detection latency measured in events. Results indicate improved precision-recall at mid to high recall and better probability calibration relative to baselines. We release implementation details, hyperparameters, and ablations for hazard sensitivity and computational footprint. Code and reproducibility materials will be made available upon publication; datasets and implementation are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.


Decoding Emotion in the Deep: A Systematic Study of How LLMs Represent, Retain, and Express Emotion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly expected to navigate the nuances of human emotion. While research confirms that LLMs can simulate emotional intelligence, their internal emotional mechanisms remain largely unexplored. This paper investigates the latent emotional representations within modern LLMs by asking: how, where, and for how long is emotion encoded in their neural architecture? To address this, we introduce a novel, large-scale Reddit corpus of approximately 400,000 utterances, balanced across seven basic emotions through a multi-stage process of classification, rewriting, and synthetic generation. Using this dataset, we employ lightweight "probes" to read out information from the hidden layers of various Qwen3 and LLaMA models without altering their parameters. Our findings reveal that LLMs develop a surprisingly well-defined internal geometry of emotion, which sharpens with model scale and significantly outperforms zero-shot prompting. We demonstrate that this emotional signal is not a final-layer phenomenon but emerges early and peaks mid-network. Furthermore, the internal states are both malleable (they can be influenced by simple system prompts) and persistent, as the initial emotional tone remains detectable for hundreds of subsequent tokens. We contribute our dataset, an open-source probing toolkit, and a detailed map of the emotional landscape within LLMs, offering crucial insights for developing more transparent and aligned AI systems. The code and dataset are open-sourced.


Detecting Malicious Pilot Contamination in Multiuser Massive MIMO Using Decision Trees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Massive multiple-input multiple-output (MMIMO) is essential to modern wireless communication systems, like 5G and 6G, but it is vulnerable to active eavesdropping attacks. One type of such attack is the pilot contamination attack (PCA), where a malicious user copies pilot signals from an authentic user during uplink, intentionally interfering with the base station's (BS) channel estimation accuracy. In this work, we propose to use a Decision Tree (DT) algorithm for PCA detection at the BS in a multi-user system. We present a methodology to generate training data for the DT classifier and select the best DT according to their depth. Then, we simulate different scenarios that could be encountered in practice and compare the DT to a classical technique based on likelihood ratio testing (LRT) submitted to the same scenarios. The results revealed that a DT with only one level of depth is sufficient to outperform the LRT. The DT shows a good performance regarding the probability of detection in noisy scenarios and when the malicious user transmits with low power, in which case the LRT fails to detect the PCA. We also show that the reason for the good performance of the DT is its ability to compute a threshold that separates PCA data from non-PCA data better than the LRT's threshold. Moreover, the DT does not necessitate prior knowledge of noise power or assumptions regarding the signal power of malicious users, prerequisites typically essential for LRT and other hypothesis testing methodologies.


Prompt Optimization Meets Subspace Representation Learning for Few-shot Out-of-Distribution Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The reliability of artificial intelligence (AI) systems in open-world settings depends heavily on their ability to flag out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs unseen during training. Recent advances in large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) have enabled promising few-shot OOD detection frameworks using only a handful of in-distribution (ID) samples. However, existing prompt learning-based OOD methods rely solely on softmax probabilities, overlooking the rich discriminative potential of the feature embeddings learned by VLMs trained on millions of samples. To address this limitation, we propose a novel context optimization (CoOp)-based framework that integrates subspace representation learning with prompt tuning. Our approach improves ID-OOD separability by projecting the ID features into a subspace spanned by prompt vectors, while projecting ID-irrelevant features into an orthogonal null space. To train such OOD detection framework, we design an easy-to-handle end-to-end learning criterion that ensures strong OOD detection performance as well as high ID classification accuracy. Experiments on real-world datasets showcase the effectiveness of our approach.


"A 6 or a 9?": Ensemble Learning Through the Multiplicity of Performant Models and Explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Creating models from past observations and ensuring their effectiveness on new data is the essence of machine learning. However, selecting models that generalize well remains a challenging task. Related to this topic, the Rashomon Effect refers to cases where multiple models perform similarly well for a given learning problem. This often occurs in real-world scenarios, like the manufacturing process or medical diagnosis, where diverse patterns in data lead to multiple high-performing solutions. We propose the Rashomon Ensemble, a method that strategically selects models from these diverse high-performing solutions to improve generalization. By grouping models based on both their performance and explanations, we construct ensembles that maximize diversity while maintaining predictive accuracy. This selection ensures that each model covers a distinct region of the solution space, making the ensemble more robust to distribution shifts and variations in unseen data. We validate our approach on both open and proprietary collaborative real-world datasets, demonstrating up to 0.20+ AUROC improvements in scenarios where the Rashomon ratio is large. Additionally, we demonstrate tangible benefits for businesses in various real-world applications, highlighting the robustness, practicality, and effectiveness of our approach.


Transfer Learning with Distance Covariance for Random Forest: Error Bounds and an EHR Application

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Random forest is an important method for ML applications due to its broad outperformance over competing methods for structured tabular data. We propose a method for transfer learning in nonparametric regression using a centered random forest (CRF) with distance covariance-based feature weights, assuming the unknown source and target regression functions are different for a few features (sparsely different). Our method first obtains residuals from predicting the response in the target domain using a source domain-trained CRF. Then, we fit another CRF to the residuals, but with feature splitting probabilities proportional to the sample distance covariance between the features and the residuals in an independent sample. We derive an upper bound on the mean square error rate of the procedure as a function of sample sizes and difference dimension, theoretically demonstrating transfer learning benefits in random forests. In simulations, we show that the results obtained for the CRFs also hold numerically for the standard random forest (SRF) method with data-driven feature split selection. Beyond transfer learning, our results also show the benefit of distance-covariance-based weights on the performance of RF in some situations. Our method shows significant gains in predicting the mortality of ICU patients in smaller-bed target hospitals using a large multi-hospital dataset of electronic health records for 200,000 ICU patients.


Adversarial Attacks on Downstream Weather Forecasting Models: Application to Tropical Cyclone Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep learning based weather forecasting (DLWF) models leverage past weather observations to generate future forecasts, supporting a wide range of downstream tasks, including tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory prediction. In this paper, we investigate their vulnerability to adversarial attacks, where subtle perturbations to the upstream weather forecasts can alter the downstream TC trajectory predictions. Although research on adversarial attacks in DLWF models has grown recently, generating perturbed upstream forecasts that reliably steer downstream output toward attacker-specified trajectories remains a challenge. First, conventional TC detection systems are opaque, non-differentiable black boxes, making standard gradient-based attacks infeasible. Second, the extreme rarity of TC events leads to severe class imbalance problem, making it difficult to develop efficient attack methods that will produce the attacker's target trajectories. Furthermore, maintaining physical consistency in adversarially generated forecasts presents another significant challenge. To overcome these limitations, we propose Cyc-Attack, a novel method that perturbs the upstream forecasts of DLWF models to generate adversarial trajectories. First, we pre-train a differentiable surrogate model to approximate the TC detector's output, enabling the construction of gradient-based attacks. Cyc-Attack also employs skewness-aware loss function with kernel dilation strategy to address the imbalance problem. Finally, a distance-based gradient weighting scheme and regularization are used to constrain the perturbations and eliminate spurious trajectories to ensure the adversarial forecasts are realistic and not easily detectable.