Performance Analysis
Hierarchical structure and the prediction of missing links in networks
Clauset, Aaron, Moore, Cristopher, Newman, M. E. J.
Networks have in recent years emerged as an invaluable tool for describing and quantifying complex systems in many branches of science. Recent studies suggest that networks often exhibit hierarchical organization, where vertices divide into groups that further subdivide into groups of groups, and so forth over multiple scales. In many cases these groups are found to correspond to known functional units, such as ecological niches in food webs, modules in biochemical networks (protein interaction networks, metabolic networks, or genetic regulatory networks), or communities in social networks. Here we present a general technique for inferring hierarchical structure from network data and demonstrate that the existence of hierarchy can simultaneously explain and quantitatively reproduce many commonly observed topological properties of networks, such as right-skewed degree distributions, high clustering coefficients, and short path lengths. We further show that knowledge of hierarchical structure can be used to predict missing connections in partially known networks with high accuracy, and for more general network structures than competing techniques. Taken together, our results suggest that hierarchy is a central organizing principle of complex networks, capable of offering insight into many network phenomena.
Relationship between Diversity and Perfomance of Multiple Classifiers for Decision Support
Musehane, R., Netshiongolwe, F., Nelwamondo, F. V., Masisi, L., Marwala, T.
The paper presents the investigation and implementation of the relationship between diversity and the performance of multiple classifiers on classification accuracy. The study is critical as to build classifiers that are strong and can generalize better. The parameters of the neural network within the committee were varied to induce diversity; hence structural diversity is the focus for this study. The hidden nodes and the activation function are the parameters that were varied. The diversity measures that were adopted from ecology such as Shannon and Simpson were used to quantify diversity. Genetic algorithm is used to find the optimal ensemble by using the accuracy as the cost function. The results observed shows that there is a relationship between structural diversity and accuracy. It is observed that the classification accuracy of an ensemble increases as the diversity increases. There was an increase of 3%-6% in the classification accuracy.
Determining the Unithood of Word Sequences using Mutual Information and Independence Measure
Wong, Wilson, Liu, Wei, Bennamoun, Mohammed
Most works related to unithood were conducted as part of a larger effort for the determination of termhood. Consequently, the number of independent research that study the notion of unithood and produce dedicated techniques for measuring unithood is extremely small. We propose a new approach, independent of any influences of termhood, that provides dedicated measures to gather linguistic evidence from parsed text and statistical evidence from Google search engine for the measurement of unithood. Our evaluations revealed a precision and recall of 98.68% and 91.82% respectively with an accuracy at 95.42% in measuring the unithood of 1005 test cases.
Finding rare objects and building pure samples: Probabilistic quasar classification from low resolution Gaia spectra
Bailer-Jones, C. A. L., Smith, K. W., Tiede, C., Sordo, R., Vallenari, A.
We develop and demonstrate a probabilistic method for classifying rare objects in surveys with the particular goal of building very pure samples. It works by modifying the output probabilities from a classifier so as to accommodate our expectation (priors) concerning the relative frequencies of different classes of objects. We demonstrate our method using the Discrete Source Classifier, a supervised classifier currently based on Support Vector Machines, which we are developing in preparation for the Gaia data analysis. DSC classifies objects using their very low resolution optical spectra. We look in detail at the problem of quasar classification, because identification of a pure quasar sample is necessary to define the Gaia astrometric reference frame. By varying a posterior probability threshold in DSC we can trade off sample completeness and contamination. We show, using our simulated data, that it is possible to achieve a pure sample of quasars (upper limit on contamination of 1 in 40,000) with a completeness of 65% at magnitudes of G=18.5, and 50% at G=20.0, even when quasars have a frequency of only 1 in every 2000 objects. The star sample completeness is simultaneously 99% with a contamination of 0.7%. Including parallax and proper motion in the classifier barely changes the results. We further show that not accounting for class priors in the target population leads to serious misclassifications and poor predictions for sample completeness and contamination. (Truncated)
Anytime Induction of Low-cost, Low-error Classifiers: a Sampling-based Approach
Machine learning techniques are gaining prevalence in the production of a wide range of classifiers for complex real-world applications with nonuniform testing and misclassification costs. The increasing complexity of these applications poses a real challenge to resource management during learning and classification. In this work we introduce ACT (anytime cost-sensitive tree learner), a novel framework for operating in such complex environments. ACT is an anytime algorithm that allows learning time to be increased in return for lower classification costs. It builds a tree top-down and exploits additional time resources to obtain better estimations for the utility of the different candidate splits. Using sampling techniques, ACT approximates the cost of the subtree under each candidate split and favors the one with a minimal cost. As a stochastic algorithm, ACT is expected to be able to escape local minima, into which greedy methods may be trapped. Experiments with a variety of datasets were conducted to compare ACT to the state-of-the-art cost-sensitive tree learners. The results show that for the majority of domains ACT produces significantly less costly trees. ACT also exhibits good anytime behavior with diminishing returns.
SATzilla: Portfolio-based Algorithm Selection for SAT
Xu, L., Hutter, F., Hoos, H. H., Leyton-Brown, K.
It has been widely observed that there is no single "dominant" SAT solver; instead, different solvers perform best on different instances. Rather than following the traditional approach of choosing the best solver for a given class of instances, we advocate making this decision online on a per-instance basis. Building on previous work, we describe SATzilla, an automated approach for constructing per-instance algorithm portfolios for SAT that use so-called empirical hardness models to choose among their constituent solvers. This approach takes as input a distribution of problem instances and a set of component solvers, and constructs a portfolio optimizing a given objective function (such as mean runtime, percent of instances solved, or score in a competition). The excellent performance of SATzilla was independently verified in the 2007 SAT Competition, where our SATzilla07 solvers won three gold, one silver and one bronze medal. In this article, we go well beyond SATzilla07 by making the portfolio construction scalable and completely automated, and improving it by integrating local search solvers as candidate solvers, by predicting performance score instead of runtime, and by using hierarchical hardness models that take into account different types of SAT instances. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these new techniques in extensive experimental results on data sets including instances from the most recent SAT competition.
Predicting Regional Classification of Levantine Ivory Sculptures: A Machine Learning Approach
Gansell, Amy Rebecca, Tamaru, Irene K., Jakulin, Aleks, Wiggins, Chris H.
Art historians and archaeologists have long grappled with the regional classification of ancient Near Eastern ivory carvings. Based on the visual similarity of sculptures, individuals within these fields have proposed object assemblages linked to hypothesized regional production centers. Using quantitative rather than visual methods, we here approach this classification task by exploiting computational methods from machine learning currently used with success in a variety of statistical problems in science and engineering. We first construct a prediction function using 66 categorical features as inputs and regional style as output. The model assigns regional style group (RSG), with 98 percent prediction accuracy. We then rank these features by their mutual information with RSG, quantifying single-feature predictive power. Using the highest- ranking features in combination with nomographic visualization, we have found previously unknown relationships that may aid in the regional classification of these ivories and their interpretation in art historical context.
Creating Relational Data from Unstructured and Ungrammatical Data Sources
Michelson, M., Knoblock, C. A.
In order for agents to act on behalf of users, they will have to retrieve and integrate vast amounts of textual data on the World Wide Web. However, much of the useful data on the Web is neither grammatical nor formally structured, making querying difficult. Examples of these types of data sources are online classifieds like Craigslist and auction item listings like eBay. We call this unstructured, ungrammatical data "posts." The unstructured nature of posts makes query and integration difficult because the attributes are embedded within the text. Also, these attributes do not conform to standardized values, which prevents queries based on a common attribute value. The schema is unknown and the values may vary dramatically making accurate search difficult. Creating relational data for easy querying requires that we define a schema for the embedded attributes and extract values from the posts while standardizing these values. Traditional information extraction (IE) is inadequate to perform this task because it relies on clues from the data, such as structure or natural language, neither of which are found in posts. Furthermore, traditional information extraction does not incorporate data cleaning, which is necessary to accurately query and integrate the source. The two-step approach described in this paper creates relational data sets from unstructured and ungrammatical text by addressing both issues. To do this, we require a set of known entities called a "reference set." The first step aligns each post to each member of each reference set. This allows our algorithm to define a schema over the post and include standard values for the attributes defined by this schema. The second step performs information extraction for the attributes, including attributes not easily represented by reference sets, such as a price. In this manner we create a relational structure over previously unstructured data, supporting deep and accurate queries over the data as well as standard values for integration. Our experimental results show that our technique matches the posts to the reference set accurately and efficiently and outperforms state-of-the-art extraction systems on the extraction task from posts.
Dempster-Shafer for Anomaly Detection
In this paper, we implement an anomaly detection system using the Dempster-Shafer method. Using two standard benchmark problems we show that by combining multiple signals it is possible to achieve better results than by using a single signal. We further show that by applying this approach to a real-world email dataset the algorithm works for email worm detection. Dempster-Shafer can be a promising method for anomaly detection problems with multiple features (data sources), and two or more classes.
New probabilistic interest measures for association rules
Hahsler, Michael, Hornik, Kurt
Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start with presenting a simple probabilistic framework for transaction data which can be used to simulate transaction data when no associations are present. We use such data and a real-world database from a grocery outlet to explore the behavior of confidence and lift, two popular interest measures used for rule mining. The results show that confidence is systematically influenced by the frequency of the items in the left hand side of rules and that lift performs poorly to filter random noise in transaction data. Based on the probabilistic framework we develop two new interest measures, hyper-lift and hyper-confidence, which can be used to filter or order mined association rules. The new measures show significantly better performance than lift for applications where spurious rules are problematic.