Current medical practice depends on standardized treatment frameworks and empirical methodologies that neglect individual patient variations, leading to suboptimal health outcomes. We develop a comprehensive system integrating Large Language Models (LLMs), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN), T-learner counterfactual models, and contextual bandit approaches to provide customized, data-informed clinical recommendations. The approach utilizes LLMs to process unstructured medical narratives into structured datasets (93.2% accuracy), uses CTGANs to produce realistic synthetic patient data (55% accuracy via two-sample verification), deploys T-learners to forecast patient-specific treatment responses (84.3% accuracy), and integrates prior-informed contextual bandits to enhance online therapeutic selection by effectively balancing exploration of new possibilities with exploitation of existing knowledge. Testing on stage III colon cancer datasets revealed that our KernelUCB approach obtained 0.60-0.61 average reward scores across 5,000 rounds, exceeding other reference methods. This comprehensive system overcomes cold-start limitations in online learning environments, improves computational effectiveness, and constitutes notable progress toward individualized medicine adapted to specific patient characteristics.

While test-time scaling with verification has shown promise in improving the performance of large language models (LLMs), the role of the verifier and its imperfections remain underexplored. The effect of verification manifests through interactions of three quantities: (i) the generator's coverage, (ii) the verifier's region of convergence (ROC), and (iii) the sampling algorithm's sub-optimality. Though recent studies capture subsets of these factors, a unified framework quantifying the geometry of their interplay is missing. We frame verifiable test-time scaling as a transport problem. This characterizes the interaction of coverage, ROC, and sub-optimality, and uncovers that the sub-optimality--coverage curve exhibits three regimes. A transport regime -- where sub-optimality increases with coverage, a policy improvement regime -- where sub-optimality may decrease with coverage, depending on the verifier's ROC, and a saturation regime -- where sub-optimality plateaus, unaffected by coverage. We further propose and analyze two classes of sampling algorithms -- sequential and batched, and examine how their computational complexities shape these trade-offs. Empirical results with Qwen, Llama, and Gemma models corroborate our theoretical findings.

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the existing explainable methods, counterfactual explanations offer interpretability by identifying minimal changes to inputs that would alter a model's prediction, thus providing deeper insights. However, current counterfactual generation methods suffer from critical limitations, including gradient vanishing, discontinuous latent spaces, and an overreliance on the alignment between learned and true decision boundaries. To overcome these limitations, we propose LeapFactual, a novel counterfactual explanation algorithm based on conditional flow matching. LeapFactual generates reliable and informative counterfactuals, even when true and learned decision boundaries diverge. Following a model-agnostic approach, LeapFactual is not limited to models with differentiable loss functions. It can even handle human-in-the-loop systems, expanding the scope of counterfactual explanations to domains that require the participation of human annotators, such as citizen science. We provide extensive experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets showing that LeapFactual generates accurate and in-distribution counterfactual explanations that offer actionable insights. We observe, for instance, that our reliable counterfactual samples with labels aligning to ground truth can be beneficially used as new training data to enhance the model. The proposed method is broadly applicable and enhances both scientific knowledge discovery and non-expert interpretability.

Predicting precipitation maps is a highly complex spatiotemporal modeling task, critical for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. Short-term precipitation forecasting, or nowcasting, requires models that are not only accurate but also computationally efficient for real-time applications. Current methods, such as token-based autoregressive models, often suffer from flawed inductive biases and slow inference, while diffusion models can be computationally intensive. To address these limitations, we introduce BlockGPT, a generative autoregressive transformer using batched tokenization (Block) method that predicts full two-dimensional fields (frames) at each time step. Conceived as a model-agnostic paradigm for video prediction, BlockGPT factorizes space-time by using self-attention within each frame and causal attention across frames; in this work, we instantiate it for precipitation nowcasting. We evaluate BlockGPT on two precipitation datasets, viz. KNMI (Netherlands) and SEVIR (U.S.), comparing it to state-of-the-art baselines including token-based (NowcastingGPT) and diffusion-based (DiffCast+Phydnet) models. The results show that BlockGPT achieves superior accuracy, event localization as measured by categorical metrics, and inference speeds up to 31x faster than comparable baselines.

Recent advances in LLM watermarking methods such as SynthID-Text by Google DeepMind offer promising solutions for tracing the provenance of AI-generated text. However, our robustness assessment reveals that SynthID-Text is vulnerable to meaning-preserving attacks, such as paraphrasing, copy-paste modifications, and back-translation, which can significantly degrade watermark detectability. To address these limitations, we propose SynGuard, a hybrid framework that combines the semantic alignment strength of Semantic Information Retrieval (SIR) with the probabilistic watermarking mechanism of SynthID-Text. Our approach jointly embeds watermarks at both lexical and semantic levels, enabling robust provenance tracking while preserving the original meaning. Experimental results across multiple attack scenarios show that SynGuard improves watermark recovery by an average of 11.1\% in F1 score compared to SynthID-Text. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of semantic-aware watermarking in resisting real-world tampering. All code, datasets, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at: https://github.com/githshine/SynGuard.

We revisit Cox's proportional hazard models and LASSO in the aim of improving feature selection in survival analysis. Unlike traditional methods relying on cross-validation or BIC, the penalty parameter $λ$ is directly tuned for feature selection and is asymptotically pivotal thanks to taking the square root of Cox's partial likelihood. Substantially improving over both cross-validation LASSO and BIC subset selection, our approach has a phase transition on the probability of retrieving all and only the good features, like in compressed sensing. The method can be employed by linear models but also by artificial neural networks.

Strategies to improve the predicting performance of Message-Passing Neural-Networks for molecular property predictions can be achieved by simplifying how the message is passed and by using descriptors that capture multiple aspects of molecular graphs. In this work, we designed model architectures that achieved state-of-the-art performance, surpassing more complex models such as those pre-trained on external databases. We assessed dataset diversity to complement our performance results, finding that structural diversity influences the need for additional components in our MPNNs and feature sets. In most datasets, our best architecture employs bidirectional message-passing with an attention mechanism, applied to a minimalist message formulation that excludes self-perception, highlighting that relatively simpler models, compared to classical MPNNs, yield higher class separability. In contrast, we found that convolution normalization factors do not benefit the predictive power in all the datasets tested. This was corroborated in both global and node-level outputs. Additionally, we analyzed the influence of both adding spatial features and working with 3D graphs, finding that 2D molecular graphs are sufficient when complemented with appropriately chosen 3D descriptors. This approach not only preserves predictive performance but also reduces computational cost by over 50%, making it particularly advantageous for high-throughput screening campaigns.

Monitoring AIs at runtime can help us detect and stop harmful actions. In this paper, we study how to efficiently combine multiple runtime monitors into a single monitoring protocol. The protocol's objective is to maximize the probability of applying a safety intervention on misaligned outputs (i.e., maximize recall). Since running monitors and applying safety interventions are costly, the protocol also needs to adhere to an average-case budget constraint. Taking the monitors' performance and cost as given, we develop an algorithm to find the best protocol. The algorithm exhaustively searches over when and which monitors to call, and allocates safety interventions based on the Neyman-Pearson lemma. By focusing on likelihood ratios and strategically trading off spending on monitors against spending on interventions, we more than double our recall rate compared to a naive baseline in a code review setting. We also show that combining two monitors can Pareto dominate using either monitor alone. Our framework provides a principled methodology for combining existing monitors to detect undesirable behavior in cost-sensitive settings.

Counterfactual inference provides a mathematical framework for reasoning about hypothetical outcomes under alternative interventions, bridging causal reasoning and predictive modeling. We present a counterfactual inference framework for individualized risk estimation and intervention analysis, illustrated through a clinical application to post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) among patients with pre-existing heart failure (HF). Using longitudinal diagnosis, laboratory, and medication data from a large health-system cohort, we integrate regularized predictive modeling with counterfactual search to identify actionable pathways to PASC-related HF hospital admissions. The framework combines exact enumeration with optimization-based methods, including the Nearest Instance Counterfactual Explanations (NICE) and Multi-Objective Counterfactuals (MOC) algorithms, to efficiently explore high-dimensional intervention spaces. Applied to more than 2700 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and prior HF, the model achieved strong discriminative performance (AUROC: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.91) and generated interpretable, patient-specific counterfactuals that quantify how modifying comorbidity patterns or treatment factors could alter predicted outcomes. This work demonstrates how counterfactual reasoning can be formalized as an optimization problem over predictive functions, offering a rigorous, interpretable, and computationally efficient approach to personalized inference in complex biomedical systems.

To mitigate unfair and unethical discrimination over sensitive features (e.g., gender, age, or race), fairness testing plays an integral role in engineering systems that leverage AI models to handle tabular data. A key challenge therein is how to effectively reveal fairness bugs under an intractable sample size using perturbation. Much current work has been focusing on designing the test sample generators, ignoring the valuable knowledge about data characteristics that can help guide the perturbation and hence limiting their full potential. In this paper, we seek to bridge such a gap by proposing a generic framework of causally perturbed fairness testing, dubbed CausalFT. Through causal inference, the key idea of CausalFT is to extract the most directly and causally relevant non-sensitive feature to its sensitive counterpart, which can jointly influence the prediction of the label. Such a causal relationship is then seamlessly injected into the perturbation to guide a test sample generator. Unlike existing generator-level work, CausalFT serves as a higher-level framework that can be paired with diverse base generators. Extensive experiments on 1296 cases confirm that CausalFT can considerably improve arbitrary base generators in revealing fairness bugs over 93% of the cases with acceptable extra runtime overhead. Compared with a state-of-the-art approach that ranks the non-sensitive features solely based on correlation, CausalFT performs significantly better on 64% cases while being much more efficient. Further, CausalFT can better improve bias resilience in nearly all cases.