Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving networks is change-point detection, in which we both identify the times at which the large-scale pattern of interactions changes fundamentally and quantify how large and what kind of change occurred. Here, we formalize for the first time the network change-point detection problem within an online probabilistic learning framework and introduce a method that can reliably solve it. This method combines a generalized hierarchical random graph model with a Bayesian hypothesis test to quantitatively determine if, when, and precisely how a change point has occurred. We analyze the detectability of our method using synthetic data with known change points of different types and magnitudes, and show that this method is more accurate than several previously used alternatives. Applied to two high-resolution evolving social networks, this method identifies a sequence of change points that align with known external "shocks" to these networks.

We consider the use of the Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM) procedure for the supervised classification of a flow cytometric sample with respect to a number of predefined classes of such samples. The JCM procedure has been proposed as a method for the unsupervised classification of cells within a sample into a number of clusters and in the case of multiple samples, the matching of these clusters across the samples. The two tasks of clustering and matching of the clusters are performed simultaneously within the JCM framework. In this paper, we consider the case where there is a number of distinct classes of samples whose class of origin is known, and the problem is to classify a new sample of unknown class of origin to one of these predefined classes. For example, the different classes might correspond to the types of a particular disease or to the various health outcomes of a patient subsequent to a course of treatment. We show and demonstrate on some real datasets how the JCM procedure can be used to carry out this supervised classification task. A mixture distribution is used to model the distribution of the expressions of a fixed set of markers for each cell in a sample with the components in the mixture model corresponding to the various populations of cells in the composition of the sample. For each class of samples, a class template is formed by the adoption of random-effects terms to model the inter-sample variation within a class. The classification of a new unclassified sample is undertaken by assigning the unclassified sample to the class that minimizes the Kullback-Leibler distance between its fitted mixture density and each class density provided by the class templates.

Modern biotechnologies often result in high-dimensional data sets with much more variables than observations (n $\ll$ p). These data sets pose new challenges to statistical analysis: Variable selection becomes one of the most important tasks in this setting. We assess the recently proposed flexible framework for variable selection called stability selection. By the use of resampling procedures, stability selection adds a finite sample error control to high-dimensional variable selection procedures such as Lasso or boosting. We consider the combination of boosting and stability selection and present results from a detailed simulation study that provides insights into the usefulness of this combination. Limitations are discussed and guidance on the specification and tuning of stability selection is given. The interpretation of the used error bounds is elaborated and insights for practical data analysis are given. The results will be used to detect differentially expressed phenotype measurements in patients with autism spectrum disorders. All methods are implemented in the freely available R package stabs.

Touch can be a powerful means of communication especially when it is combined with other sensing modalities, such as speech. The challenge on a humanoid robot is to sense touch in a way that can be sensitive to subtle cues, such as the hand used and amount of force applied. We propose a novel combination of sensing modalities to extract touch information. We extract hand information using the Leap Motion active sensor, then determine force information from force sensitive resistors. We combine these sensing modalities at the feature level, then train a support vector machine to recognize specific touch gestures. We demonstrate a high level of accuracy recognizing four different touch gestures from the firefighting domain.

While temporal behavioral patterns can be discerned to underlie real crowd work, prior studies have typically modeled worker performance under a simplified i.i.d. assumption. To better model such temporal worker behavior, we propose a time-series label prediction model for crowd work. This latent variable model captures and summarizes past worker behavior, enabling us to better predict the quality of each worker's next label. Given inherent uncertainty in prediction, we also investigate a decision reject option to balance the tradeoff between prediction accuracy vs. coverage. Results show our model improves accuracy of both label prediction on real crowd worker data, as well as data quality overall.

Learning a second language is becoming a more popular trend around the world. But the act of learning another language in a place removed from native speakers is difficult as there is often no one to correct mistakes nor examples to imitate. With the idea of crowd sourcing, we would like to propose an efficient way to learn a second language better.

In this paper, an ensemble-based method for the screening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is proposed. This approach is based on features extracted from the output of several retinal image processing algorithms, such as image-level (quality assessment, pre-screening, AM/FM), lesion-specific (microaneurysms, exudates) and anatomical (macula, optic disc) components. The actual decision about the presence of the disease is then made by an ensemble of machine learning classifiers. We have tested our approach on the publicly available Messidor database, where 90% sensitivity, 91% specificity and 90% accuracy and 0.989 AUC are achieved in a disease/no-disease setting. These results are highly competitive in this field and suggest that retinal image processing is a valid approach for automatic DR screening.

In various situations one is given only the predictions of multiple classifiers over a large unlabeled test data. This scenario raises the following questions: Without any labeled data and without any a-priori knowledge about the reliability of these different classifiers, is it possible to consistently and computationally efficiently estimate their accuracies? Furthermore, also in a completely unsupervised manner, can one construct a more accurate unsupervised ensemble classifier? In this paper, focusing on the binary case, we present simple, computationally efficient algorithms to solve these questions. Furthermore, under standard classifier independence assumptions, we prove our methods are consistent and study their asymptotic error. Our approach is spectral, based on the fact that the off-diagonal entries of the classifiers' covariance matrix and 3-d tensor are rank-one. We illustrate the competitive performance of our algorithms via extensive experiments on both artificial and real datasets.

Reliable microaneurysm detection in digital fundus images is still an open issue in medical image processing. We propose an ensemble-based framework to improve microaneurysm detection. Unlike the well-known approach of considering the output of multiple classifiers, we propose a combination of internal components of microaneurysm detectors, namely preprocessing methods and candidate extractors. We have evaluated our approach for microaneurysm detection in an online competition, where this algorithm is currently ranked as first and also on two other databases. Since microaneurysm detection is decisive in diabetic retinopathy grading, we also tested the proposed method for this task on the publicly available Messidor database, where a promising AUC 0.90 with 0.01 uncertainty is achieved in a 'DR/non-DR'-type classification based on the presence or absence of the microaneurysms.

We study a novel spline-like basis, which we name the "falling factorial basis", bearing many similarities to the classic truncated power basis. The advantage of the falling factorial basis is that it enables rapid, linear-time computations in basis matrix multiplication and basis matrix inversion. The falling factorial functions are not actually splines, but are close enough to splines that they provably retain some of the favorable properties of the latter functions. We examine their application in two problems: trend filtering over arbitrary input points, and a higher-order variant of the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test.