Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving networks is change-point detection, in which we both identify the times at which the large-scale pattern of interactions changes fundamentally and quantify how large and what kind of change occurred. Here, we formalize for the first time the network change-point detection problem within an online probabilistic learning framework and introduce a method that can reliably solve it. This method combines a generalized hierarchical random graph model with a Bayesian hypothesis test to quantitatively determine if, when, and precisely how a change point has occurred. We analyze the detectability of our method using synthetic data with known change points of different types and magnitudes, and show that this method is more accurate than several previously used alternatives. Applied to two high-resolution evolving social networks, this method identifies a sequence of change points that align with known external ``shocks'' to these networks.

With the rapid development of signed social networks in which therelationships between two nodes can be either positive (indicatingrelations such as like) or negative (indicating relations such asdislike), producing a personalized ranking list with positive linkson the top and negative links at the bottom is becoming anincreasingly important task. To accomplish it, we propose ageneralized AUC (GAUC) to quantify the ranking performance ofpotential links (including positive, negative, and unknown statuslinks) in partially observed signed social networks. In addition, wedevelop a novel link recommendation algorithm by directly optimizingthe GAUC loss. We conduct experimental studies based upon Wikipedia,MovieLens, and Slashdot; our results demonstrate the effectivenessand the efficiency of the proposed approach.

To penetrate sensitive computer networks, attackers can use spear phishing to sidestep technical security mechanisms by exploiting the privileges of careless users. In order to maximize their success probability, attackers have to target the users that constitute the weakest links of the system. The optimal selection of these target users takes into account both the damage that can be caused by a user and the probability of a malicious e-mail being delivered to and opened by a user. Since attackers select their targets in a strategic way, the optimal mitigation of these attacks requires the defender to also personalize the e-mail filters by taking into account the users' properties. In this paper, we assume that a learned classifier is given and propose strategic per-user filtering thresholds for mitigating spear-phishing attacks. We formulate the problem of filtering targeted and non-targeted malicious e-mails as a Stackelberg security game. We characterize the optimal filtering strategies and show how to compute them in practice. Finally, we evaluate our results using two real-world datasets and demonstrate that the proposed thresholds lead to lower losses than non-strategic thresholds.

Robots are increasingly becoming key players in human-robot teams. To become effective teammates, robots must possess profound understanding of an environment, be able to reason about the desired commands and goals within a specific context, and be able to communicate with human teammates in a clear and natural way. To address these challenges, we have developed an intelligence architecture that combines cognitive components to carry out high-level cognitive tasks, semantic perception to label regions in the world, and a natural language component to reason about the command and its relationship to the objects in the world. This paper describes recent developments using this architecture on a fielded mobile robot platform operating in unknown urban environments. We report a summary of extensive outdoor experiments; the results suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to robotics has the potential to create competent human-robot teams.

Text-based geolocation classifiers often operate with a grid-based view of the world. Predicting document location of origin based on text content on a geodesic grid is computationally attractive since many standard methods for supervised document classification carry over unchanged to geolocation in the form of predicting a most probable grid cell for a document. However, the grid-based approach suffers from sparse data problems if one wants to improve classification accuracy by moving to smaller cell sizes. In this paper we investigate an enhancement of common methods for determining the geographic point of origin of a text document by kernel density estimation. For geolocation of tweets we obtain a improvements upon non-kernel methods on datasets of U.S. and global Twitter content.

The short-term reconsumption behaviors, i.e. “reconsume” the near past, account for a large proportion of people’s activities every day and everywhere. In this paper, we firstly derived four generic features which influence people’s short-term reconsumption behaviors. These features were extracted with respect to different roles in the process of reconsumption behaviors, i.e. users, items and interactions. Then, we brought forward two fast algorithms with the linear and the quadratic kernels to predict whether a user will perform a short-term reconsumption at a specific time given the context. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithms are more accurate in the prediction tasks compared with the baselines. Meanwhile, the time complexity of online prediction of our algorithms is O(1), which enables fast prediction in real-world scenarios. The prediction contributes to more intelligent decision-making, e.g. potential revisited customer identification, personalized recommendation, and information re-finding.

The F-measure, which has originally been introduced in information retrieval, is nowadays routinely used as a performance metric for problems such as binary classification, multi-label classification, and structured output prediction. Optimizing this measure is a statistically and computationally challenging problem, since no closed-form solution exists. Adopting a decision-theoretic perspective, this article provides a formal and experimental analysis of different approaches for maximizing the F-measure. We start with a Bayes-risk analysis of related loss functions, such as Hamming loss and subset zero-one loss, showing that optimizing such losses as a surrogate of the F-measure leads to a high worst-case regret. Subsequently, we perform a similar type of analysis for F-measure maximizing algorithms, showing that such algorithms are approximate, while relying on additional assumptions regarding the statistical distribution of the binary response variables. Furthermore, we present a new algorithm which is not only computationally efficient but also Bayes-optimal, regardless of the underlying distribution. To this end, the algorithm requires only a quadratic (with respect to the number of binary responses) number of parameters of the joint distribution. We illustrate the practical performance of all analyzed methods by means of experiments with multi-label classification problems.

We present the Bayesian Case Model (BCM), a general framework for Bayesian case-based reasoning (CBR) and prototype classification and clustering. BCM brings the intuitive power of CBR to a Bayesian generative framework. The BCM learns prototypes, the "quintessential" observations that best represent clusters in a dataset, by performing joint inference on cluster labels, prototypes and important features. Simultaneously, BCM pursues sparsity by learning subspaces, the sets of features that play important roles in the characterization of the prototypes. The prototype and subspace representation provides quantitative benefits in interpretability while preserving classification accuracy. Human subject experiments verify statistically significant improvements to participants' understanding when using explanations produced by BCM, compared to those given by prior art.

We consider the online setting where a user would like to continuously release a time-series of data that is correlated with his private data, to a service provider in the hope of deriving some utility. Due to correlations, the continual observation of the released time-series puts the user at risk of inference of his private data by an adversary. To protect the user from inference attacks on his private data, the time-series is randomized prior to its release according to a probabilistic privacy mapping. The privacy mapping should be designed in a way that balances privacy and utility requirements over time.Our contributions are threefold. First, we formalize the framework for the design of utility-aware privacy mappings for time-series data, under both online and batch models. We provide a sequential scheme that allows to design online privacy mappings at scale, that account for privacy risk from the history of released data and future releases to come. Second, we prove the equivalence of the optimal mappings under the batch and the online models, in the case where the time-series samples are independent across time. We further show that there exists a gap between optimal batch and online privacy mappings when certain conditions are not satisfied.Finally, we evaluate the performance of the framework over synthetic and real-world time-series data. In particular, we show that smart-meter data can be randomized for privacy purposes to prevent disaggregation of per-device energy consumption, while preserving the utility.

The timely detection of leaks in water distribution systems is critical to the sustainable provision of clean water to consumers. Increasingly, water companies are deploying remote sensors to measure water flow in real-time in order to detect such leaks. However, in practice, for typical District Metering Zones (DMZ), financial constraints limit the number of deployable real time flow sensors/meters to one or two, thus constraining leak detection to be based on the aggregated flow being monitored at these point. Such aggregated flow data typically exhibits input signal dependence whereby both noise and leaks are dependent on the flow being measured. This limited monitoring and input signal dependance make conventional approaches based on simple thresholds unreliable for real time leak detection. To address this, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model with an additive diagonal noise covariance that is able to handle the input dependant noise observed in this setting. A parameterised mean step change function is used to detect leaks and to estimate their size. Using prior water distribution systems (WDS) knowledge we dynamically bound and discretize the detection parameters of the step change mean function, reducing and pruning the parameter search space considerably. We evaluate the proposed noise scaled GP (NSGP) against both the latest researchwork on GP based fault detection methods and the current state of the art and applied leak detection approaches in water distribution systems. We show that our proposed method outperforms other approaches, on real water network data with synthetically generatedvtime varying leaks, with a detection accuracy of 99%, almost zero false positive detections and the lowest root mean squared error in leak magnitude estimation (0.065 l/s).