This work gives a simultaneous analysis of both the ordinary least squares estimator and the ridge regression estimator in the random design setting under mild assumptions on the covariate/response distributions. In particular, the analysis provides sharp results on the ``out-of-sample'' prediction error, as opposed to the ``in-sample'' (fixed design) error. The analysis also reveals the effect of errors in the estimated covariance structure, as well as the effect of modeling errors, neither of which effects are present in the fixed design setting. The proofs of the main results are based on a simple decomposition lemma combined with concentration inequalities for random vectors and matrices.

Substantial evidence indicates that major psychiatric disorders are associated with distributed neural dysconnectivity, leading to strong interest in using neuroimaging methods to accurately predict disorder status. In this work, we are specifically interested in a multivariate approach that uses features derived from whole-brain resting state functional connectomes. However, functional connectomes reside in a high dimensional space, which complicates model interpretation and introduces numerous statistical and computational challenges. Traditional feature selection techniques are used to reduce data dimensionality, but are blind to the spatial structure of the connectomes. We propose a regularization framework where the 6-D structure of the functional connectome is explicitly taken into account via the fused Lasso or the GraphNet regularizer. Our method only restricts the loss function to be convex and margin-based, allowing non-differentiable loss functions such as the hinge-loss to be used. Using the fused Lasso or GraphNet regularizer with the hinge-loss leads to a structured sparse support vector machine (SVM) with embedded feature selection. We introduce a novel efficient optimization algorithm based on the augmented Lagrangian and the classical alternating direction method, which can solve both fused Lasso and GraphNet regularized SVM with very little modification. We also demonstrate that the inner subproblems of the algorithm can be solved efficiently in analytic form by coupling the variable splitting strategy with a data augmentation scheme. Experiments on simulated data and resting state scans from a large schizophrenia dataset show that our proposed approach can identify predictive regions that are spatially contiguous in the 6-D "connectome space," offering an additional layer of interpretability that could provide new insights about various disease processes.

The inherent nature of social media content poses serious challenges to practical applications of sentiment analysis. We present VADER, a simple rule-based model for general sentiment analysis, and compare its effectiveness to eleven typical state-of-practice benchmarks including LIWC, ANEW, the General Inquirer, SentiWordNet, and machine learning oriented techniques relying on Naive Bayes, Maximum Entropy, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, we first construct and empirically validate a gold-standard list of lexical features (along with their associated sentiment intensity measures) which are specifically attuned to sentiment in microblog-like contexts. We then combine these lexical features with consideration for five general rules that embody grammatical and syntactical conventions for expressing and emphasizing sentiment intensity. Interestingly, using our parsimonious rule-based model to assess the sentiment of tweets, we find that VADER outperforms individual human raters (F1 Classification Accuracy = 0.96 and 0.84, respectively), and generalizes more favorably across contexts than any of our benchmarks.

Geographical location is vital to geospatial applications like local search and event detection. In this paper, we investigate and improve on the task of text-based geolocation prediction of Twitter users. Previous studies on this topic have typically assumed that geographical references (e.g., gazetteer terms, dialectal words) in a text are indicative of its authors location. However, these references are often buried in informal, ungrammatical, and multilingual data, and are therefore non-trivial to identify and exploit. We present an integrated geolocation prediction framework and investigate what factors impact on prediction accuracy. First, we evaluate a range of feature selection methods to obtain location indicative words. We then evaluate the impact of non-geotagged tweets, language, and user-declared metadata on geolocation prediction. In addition, we evaluate the impact of temporal variance on model generalisation, and discuss how users differ in terms of their geolocatability. We achieve state-of-the-art results for the text-based Twitter user geolocation task, and also provide the most extensive exploration of the task to date. Our findings provide valuable insights into the design of robust, practical text-based geolocation prediction systems.

There has been growing recent interest in probabilistic interpretations of kernel-based methods as well as learning in Banach spaces. The absence of a useful Lebesgue measure on an infinite-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space is a serious obstacle for such stochastic models. We propose an estimation model for the ridge regression problem within the framework of abstract Wiener spaces and show how the support vector machine solution to such problems can be interpreted in terms of the Gaussian Radon transform.

Multi-label classification has attracted an increasing amount of attention in recent years. To this end, many algorithms have been developed to classify multi-label data in an effective manner. However, they usually do not consider the pairwise relations indicated by sample labels, which actually play important roles in multi-label classification. Inspired by this, we naturally extend the traditional pairwise constraints to the multi-label scenario via a flexible thresholding scheme. Moreover, to improve the generalization ability of the classifier, we adopt a boosting-like strategy to construct a multi-label ensemble from a group of base classifiers. To achieve these goals, this paper presents a novel multi-label classification framework named Variable Pairwise Constraint projection for Multi-label Ensemble (VPCME). Specifically, we take advantage of the variable pairwise constraint projection to learn a lower-dimensional data representation, which preserves the correlations between samples and labels. Thereafter, the base classifiers are trained in the new data space. For the boosting-like strategy, we employ both the variable pairwise constraints and the bootstrap steps to diversify the base classifiers. Empirical studies have shown the superiority of the proposed method in comparison with other approaches.

It is widely known in the machine learning community that class noise can be (and often is) detrimental to inducing a model of the data. Many current approaches use a single, often biased, measurement to determine if an instance is noisy. A biased measure may work well on certain data sets, but it can also be less effective on a broader set of data sets. In this paper, we present noise identification using classifier diversity (NICD) -- a method for deriving a less biased noise measurement and integrating it into the learning process. To lessen the bias of the noise measure, NICD selects a diverse set of classifiers (based on their predictions of novel instances) to determine which instances are noisy. We examine NICD as a technique for filtering, instance weighting, and selecting the base classifiers of a voting ensemble. We compare NICD with several other noise handling techniques that do not consider classifier diversity on a set of 54 data sets and 5 learning algorithms. NICD significantly increases the classification accuracy over the other considered approaches and is effective across a broad set of data sets and learning algorithms.

It takes skill to build a meaningful predictive model even with the abundance of implementations of modern machine learning algorithms and readily available computing resources. Building a model becomes challenging if hundreds of terabytes of data need to be processed to produce the training data set. In a digital advertising technology setting, we are faced with the need to build thousands of such models that predict user behavior and power advertising campaigns in a 24/7 chaotic real-time production environment. As data scientists, we also have to convince other internal departments critical to implementation success, our management, and our customers that our machine learning system works. In this paper, we present the details of the design and implementation of an automated, robust machine learning platform that impacts billions of advertising impressions monthly. This platform enables us to continuously optimize thousands of campaigns over hundreds of millions of users, on multiple continents, against varying performance objectives.

We propose a new high dimensional semiparametric principal component analysis (PCA) method, named Copula Component Analysis (COCA). The semiparametric model assumes that, after unspecified marginally monotone transformations, the distributions are multivariate Gaussian. COCA improves upon PCA and sparse PCA in three aspects: (i) It is robust to modeling assumptions; (ii) It is robust to outliers and data contamination; (iii) It is scale-invariant and yields more interpretable results. We prove that the COCA estimators obtain fast estimation rates and are feature selection consistent when the dimension is nearly exponentially large relative to the sample size. Careful experiments confirm that COCA outperforms sparse PCA on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Ranking measures play an important role in model evaluation and selection. Using both synthetic and real-world data sets, we investigate how different types and levels of noise affect the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the area under the ROC convex hull, the scored AUC, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, and the H-measure. In our experiments, the AUC was, overall, the most robust among these measures, thereby reinvigorating it as a reliable metric despite its well-known deficiencies. This paper also introduces a novel ranking measure, which is remarkably robust to noise yet conceptually simple.