This work presents a novel modeling and analysis framework for graph sequences which addresses the challenge of detecting and contextualizing anomalies in labelled, streaming graph data. We introduce a generalization of the BTER model of Seshadhri et al. by adding flexibility to community structure, and use this model to perform multi-scale graph anomaly detection. Specifically, probability models describing coarse subgraphs are built by aggregating probabilities at finer levels, and these closely related hierarchical models simultaneously detect deviations from expectation. This technique provides insight into a graph's structure and internal context that may shed light on a detected event. Additionally, this multi-scale analysis facilitates intuitive visualizations by allowing users to narrow focus from an anomalous graph to particular subgraphs or nodes causing the anomaly. For evaluation, two hierarchical anomaly detectors are tested against a baseline Gaussian method on a series of sampled graphs. We demonstrate that our graph statistics-based approach outperforms both a distribution-based detector and the baseline in a labeled setting with community structure, and it accurately detects anomalies in synthetic and real-world datasets at the node, subgraph, and graph levels. To illustrate the accessibility of information made possible via this technique, the anomaly detector and an associated interactive visualization tool are tested on NCAA football data, where teams and conferences that moved within the league are identified with perfect recall, and precision greater than 0.786.

In this paper we address the problem of performing statistical inference for large scale data sets i.e., Big Data. The volume and dimensionality of the data may be so high that it cannot be processed or stored in a single computing node. We propose a scalable, statistically robust and computationally efficient bootstrap method, compatible with distributed processing and storage systems. Bootstrap resamples are constructed with smaller number of distinct data points on multiple disjoint subsets of data, similarly to the bag of little bootstrap method (BLB) [1]. Then significant savings in computation is achieved by avoiding the re-computation of the estimator for each bootstrap sample. Instead, a computationally efficient fixed-point estimation equation is analytically solved via a smart approximation following the Fast and Robust Bootstrap method (FRB) [2]. Our proposed bootstrap method facilitates the use of highly robust statistical methods in analyzing large scale data sets. The favorable statistical properties of the method are established analytically. Numerical examples demonstrate scalability, low complexity and robust statistical performance of the method in analyzing large data sets.

Over the last decade there has been increasing concern about the biases embodied in traditional evaluation methods for Natural Language Processing/Learning, particularly methods borrowed from Information Retrieval. Without knowledge of the Bias and Prevalence of the contingency being tested, or equivalently the expectation due to chance, the simple conditional probabilities Recall, Precision and Accuracy are not meaningful as evaluation measures, either individually or in combinations such as F-factor. The existence of bias in NLP measures leads to the 'improvement' of systems by increasing their bias, such as the practice of improving tagging and parsing scores by using most common value (e.g. water is always a Noun) rather than the attempting to discover the correct one. The measures Cohen Kappa and Powers Informedness are discussed as unbiased alternative to Recall and related to the psychologically significant measure DeltaP. In this paper we will analyze both biased and unbiased measures theoretically, characterizing the precise relationship between all these measures as well as evaluating the evaluation measures themselves empirically using a Monte Carlo simulation.

Prior design is one of the most important problems in both statistics and machine learning. The cross validation (CV) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are predictive measures of the Bayesian estimation, however, it has been difficult to apply them to find the optimal prior because their mathematical properties in prior evaluation have been unknown and the region of the hyperparameters is too wide to be examined. In this paper, we derive a new formula by which the theoretical relation among CV, WAIC, and the generalization loss is clarified and the optimal hyperparameter can be directly found. By the formula, three facts are clarified about predictive prior design. Firstly, CV and WAIC have the same second order asymptotic expansion, hence they are asymptotically equivalent to each other as the optimizer of the hyperparameter. Secondly, the hyperparameter which minimizes CV or WAIC makes the average generalization loss to be minimized asymptotically but does not the random generalization loss. And lastly, by using the mathematical relation between priors, the variances of the optimized hyperparameters by CV and WAIC are made smaller with small computational costs. Also we show that the optimized hyperparameter by DIC or the marginal likelihood does not minimize the average or random generalization loss in general.

Fortunately, there are better alternatives… What the F- ‐measure is! F-measure, There are several motivations for this choice of mean. In particular, the harmonic mean is commonly appropriate when averaging rates or frequencies, but there is also a settheoretic reason we will discuss later. Precision is the frequency with which retrieved documents or predictions are relevant or'correct', and is properly a form of Accuracy, also known as Positive Predictive Value (PPV) or True Positive Accuracy (TPA). F is intended to combine these into a single measure of search'effectiveness'. One of the problems with Recall, Precision, F-measure and Accuracy as used in Information Retrieval is that they are easily biased. To better understand the relationships between these measures it is useful to give their formulae in two forms, one form related to the raw counts, and one related to normalized frequencies (Equation 1 and Table 1). These statistics are all appropriate when there is one class of items that is of interest or relevance out of a larger set of N items or instances.

Existing MAP inference algorithms for determinantal point processes (DPPs) need to calculate determinants or conduct eigenvalue decomposition generally at the scale of the full kernel, which presents a great challenge for real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce a class of DPPs, called BwDPPs, that are characterized by an almost block diagonal kernel matrix and thus can allow efficient block-wise MAP inference. Furthermore, BwDPPs are successfully applied to address the difficulty of selecting change-points in the problem of change-point detection (CPD), which results in a new BwDPP-based CPD method, named BwDppCpd. In BwDppCpd, a preliminary set of change-point candidates is first created based on existing well-studied metrics. Then, these change-point candidates are treated as DPP items, and DPP-based subset selection is conducted to give the final estimate of the change-points that favours both quality and diversity. The effectiveness of BwDppCpd is demonstrated through extensive experiments on five real-world datasets.

In medical domain, data features often contain missing values. This can create serious bias in the predictive modeling. Typical standard data mining methods often produce poor performance measures. In this paper, we propose a new method to simultaneously classify large datasets and reduce the effects of missing values. The proposed method is based on a multilevel framework of the cost-sensitive SVM and the expected maximization imputation method for missing values, which relies on iterated regression analyses. We compare classification results of multilevel SVM-based algorithms on public benchmark datasets with imbalanced classes and missing values as well as real data in health applications, and show that our multilevel SVM-based method produces fast, and more accurate and robust classification results.

Detecting early signs of failures (anomalies) in complex systems is one of the main goal of preventive maintenance. It allows in particular to avoid actual failures by (re)scheduling maintenance operations in a way that optimizes maintenance costs. Aircraft engine health monitoring is one representative example of a field in which anomaly detection is crucial. Manufacturers collect large amount of engine related data during flights which are used, among other applications, to detect anomalies. This article introduces and studies a generic methodology that allows one to build automatic early signs of anomaly detection in a way that builds upon human expertise and that remains understandable by human operators who make the final maintenance decision. The main idea of the method is to generate a very large number of binary indicators based on parametric anomaly scores designed by experts, complemented by simple aggregations of those scores. A feature selection method is used to keep only the most discriminant indicators which are used as inputs of a Naive Bayes classifier. This give an interpretable classifier based on interpretable anomaly detectors whose parameters have been optimized indirectly by the selection process. The proposed methodology is evaluated on simulated data designed to reproduce some of the anomaly types observed in real world engines.

Recently, there has been focus on penalized log-likelihood covariance estimation for sparse inverse covariance (precision) matrices. The penalty is responsible for inducing sparsity, and a very common choice is the convex $l_1$ norm. However, the best estimator performance is not always achieved with this penalty. The most natural sparsity promoting "norm" is the non-convex $l_0$ penalty but its lack of convexity has deterred its use in sparse maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper we consider non-convex $l_0$ penalized log-likelihood inverse covariance estimation and present a novel cyclic descent algorithm for its optimization. Convergence to a local minimizer is proved, which is highly non-trivial, and we demonstrate via simulations the reduced bias and superior quality of the $l_0$ penalty as compared to the $l_1$ penalty.

ABSTRACT Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multigene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expression. Keywords: Genetic Programming, Student Failure Rate, Multi-Gene GP 1. INTRODUCTION SFR has always being and will continue to be a major concern to stakeholders in the educational sector.