A mean function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), or a kernel mean, is central to kernel methods in that it is used by many classical algorithms such as kernel principal component analysis, and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Given a finite sample, an empirical average has been used commonly as a standard estimator of the true kernel mean. Despite a widespread use of this estimator, we show that it can be improved thanks to the well-known Stein phenomenon. We propose a new family of estimators called kernel mean shrinkage estimators (KMSEs), which benefit from both theoretical justifications and good empirical performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard one, especially in a "large d, small n" paradigm.

We consider the optimization of a quadratic objective function whose gradients are only accessible through a stochastic oracle that returns the gradient at any given point plus a zero-mean finite variance random error. We present the first algorithm that achieves jointly the optimal prediction error rates for least-squares regression, both in terms of forgetting of initial conditions in O(1/n 2), and in terms of dependence on the noise and dimension d of the problem, as O(d/n). Our new algorithm is based on averaged accelerated regularized gradient descent, and may also be analyzed through finer assumptions on initial conditions and the Hessian matrix, leading to dimension-free quantities that may still be small while the " optimal " terms above are large. In order to characterize the tightness of these new bounds, we consider an application to non-parametric regression and use the known lower bounds on the statistical performance (without computational limits), which happen to match our bounds obtained from a single pass on the data and thus show optimality of our algorithm in a wide variety of particular trade-offs between bias and variance.

We introduce a wavelet-domain functional analysis of variance (fANOVA) method based on a Bayesian hierarchical model. The factor effects are modeled through a spike-and-slab mixture at each location-scale combination along with a normal-inverse-Gamma (NIG) conjugate setup for the coefficients and errors. A graphical model called the Markov grove (MG) is designed to jointly model the spike-and-slab statuses at all location-scale combinations, which incorporates the clustering of each factor effect in the wavelet-domain thereby allowing borrowing of strength across location and scale. The posterior of this NIG-MG model is analytically available through a pyramid algorithm of the same computational complexity as Mallat's pyramid algorithm for discrete wavelet transform, i.e., linear in both the number of observations and the number of locations. Posterior probabilities of factor contributions can also be computed through pyramid recursion, and exact samples from the posterior can be drawn without MCMC. We investigate the performance of our method through extensive simulation and show that it outperforms existing wavelet-domain fANOVA methods in a variety of common settings. We apply the method to analyzing the orthosis data.

An estimated 17.5 million people died from a cardiovascular disease in 2012, representing 31% of all global deaths. Most acute coronary events result from rupture of the protective fibrous cap overlying an atherosclerotic plaque. The task of early identification of plaque types that can potentially rupture is, therefore, of great importance. The state-of-the-art approach to imaging blood vessels is intravascular optical coherence tomography (IVOCT). However, currently, this is an offline approach where the images are first collected and then manually analyzed a frame at a time to identify regions at risk of thrombosis. This process is extremely laborious, time consuming and prone to human error. We are building a system that, when complete, will provide interactive 3D visualization of a blood vessel as an IVOCT is in progress. The visualization will highlight different plaque types and enable quick identification of regions at risk for thrombosis. In this paper, we describe our approach, focusing on machine learning methods that are a key enabling technology. Our empirical results using real OCT data show that our approach can identify different plaque types efficiently with high accuracy across multiple patients.

Our world is filled with both beautiful and brainy people, but how often does a Nobel Prize winner also wins a beauty pageant? Let us assume that someone who is both very beautiful and very smart is more rare than what we would expect from the combination of the number of beautiful and brainy people. Of course there will still always be some individuals that defy this stereotype; these beautiful brainy people are exactly the class of anomaly we focus on in this paper. They do not posses intrinsically rare qualities, it is the unexpected combination of factors that makes them stand out. In this paper we define the above described class of anomaly and propose a method to quickly identify them in transaction data. Further, as we take a pattern set based approach, our method readily explains why a transaction is anomalous. The effectiveness of our method is thoroughly verified with a wide range of experiments on both real world and synthetic data.

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift/BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien 2014 is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of $\gtrsim97\%$ ($\lesssim 3\%$ error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of $89.6\%$ ($10.4\%$ error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift $z$, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of $n_0 \sim 0.48^{+0.41}_{-0.23} \ {\rm Gpc}^{-3} {\rm yr}^{-1}$ with power-law indices of $n_1 \sim 1.7^{+0.6}_{-0.5}$ and $n_2 \sim -5.9^{+5.7}_{-0.1}$ for GRBs above and below a break point of $z_1 \sim 6.8^{+2.8}_{-3.2}$. This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online (https://github.com/PBGraff/SwiftGRB_PEanalysis).

Automated feature selection is important for text categorization to reduce the feature size and to speed up the learning process of classifiers. In this paper, we present a novel and efficient feature selection framework based on the Information Theory, which aims to rank the features with their discriminative capacity for classification. We first revisit two information measures: Kullback-Leibler divergence and Jeffreys divergence for binary hypothesis testing, and analyze their asymptotic properties relating to type I and type II errors of a Bayesian classifier. We then introduce a new divergence measure, called Jeffreys-Multi-Hypothesis (JMH) divergence, to measure multi-distribution divergence for multi-class classification. Based on the JMH-divergence, we develop two efficient feature selection methods, termed maximum discrimination ($MD$) and $MD-\chi^2$ methods, for text categorization. The promising results of extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

When data analysts train a classifier and check if its accuracy is significantly different from random guessing, they are implicitly and indirectly performing a hypothesis test (two sample testing) and it is of importance to ask whether this indirect method for testing is statistically optimal or not. Given that hypothesis tests attempt to maximize statistical power subject to a bound on the allowable false positive rate, while prediction attempts to minimize statistical risk on future predictions on unseen data, we wish to study whether a predictive approach for an ultimate aim of testing is prudent. We formalize this problem by considering the two-sample mean-testing setting where one must determine if the means of two Gaussians (with known and equal covariance) are the same or not, but the analyst indirectly does so by checking whether the accuracy achieved by Fisher's LDA classifier is significantly different from chance or not. Unexpectedly, we find that the asymptotic power of LDA's sample-splitting classification accuracy is actually minimax rate-optimal in terms of problem-dependent parameters. Since prediction is commonly thought to be harder than testing, it might come as a surprise to some that solving a harder problem does not create a information-theoretic bottleneck for the easier one. On the flip side, even though the power is rate-optimal, our derivation suggests that it may be worse by a small constant factor; hence practitioners must be wary of using (admittedly flexible) prediction methods on disguised testing problems.

Extreme classification problems are multiclass and multilabel classification problems where the number of outputs is so large that straightforward strategies are neither statistically nor computationally viable. One strategy for dealing with the computational burden is via a tree decomposition of the output space. While this typically leads to training and inference that scales sublinearly with the number of outputs, it also results in reduced statistical performance. In this work, we identify two shortcomings of tree decomposition methods, and describe two heuristic mitigations. We compose these with an eigenvalue technique for constructing the tree. The end result is a computationally efficient algorithm that provides good statistical performance on several extreme data sets.

With the increasing size of today's data sets, finding the right parameter configuration in model selection via cross-validation can be an extremely time-consuming task. In this paper we propose an improved cross-validation procedure which uses nonparametric testing coupled with sequential analysis to determine the best parameter set on linearly increasing subsets of the data. By eliminating underperforming candidates quickly and keeping promising candidates as long as possible, the method speeds up the computation while preserving the capability of the full cross-validation. Theoretical considerations underline the statistical power of our procedure. The experimental evaluation shows that our method reduces the computation time by a factor of up to 120 compared to a full cross-validation with a negligible impact on the accuracy.