Bitcoin is a purely online virtual currency, unbacked by either physical commodities or sovereign obligation; instead, it relies on a combination of cryptographic protection and a peer-to-peer protocol for witnessing settlements. Consequently, Bitcoin has the unintuitive property that while the ownership of money is implicitly anonymous, its flow is globally visible. In this paper we explore this unique characteristic further, using heuristic clustering to group Bitcoin wallets based on evidence of shared authority, and then using re-identification attacks (i.e., empirical purchasing of goods and services) to classify the operators of those clusters. From this analysis, we consider the challenges for those seeking to use Bitcoin for criminal or fraudulent purposes at scale. Demand for low friction e-commerce of various kinds has driven a proliferation in online payment systems over the last decade. Thus, in addition to established payment card networks (e.g., Visa and Mastercard), a broad range of the so-called "alternative payments" has emerged including eWallets (e.g., Paypal, Google Checkout, and WebMoney), direct debit systems (typically via ACH, such as eBillMe), money transfer systems (e.g., Moneygram), and so on. However, virtually all of these systems have the property that they are denominated in existing fiat currencies (e.g., dollars), explicitly identify the payer in transactions, and are centrally or quasi-centrally administered. By far the most intriguing exception to this rule is Bitcoin. First deployed in 2009, Bitcoin is an independent online monetary system that combines some of the features of cash and existing online payment methods. Like cash, Bitcoin transactions do not explicitly identify the payer or the payee: a transaction is a cryptographically signed transfer of funds from one public key to another.

Model evaluation metrics are used to assess goodness of fit between model and data, to compare different models, in the context of model selection, and to predict how predictions (associated with a specific model and data set) are expected to be accurate. Confidence intervals are used to assess how reliable a statistical estimate is. Wide confidence intervals mean that your model is poor (and it is worth investigating other models), or that your data is very noisy if confidence intervals don't improve by changing the model (that is, testing a different theoretical statistical distribution for your observations.) Modern confidence intervals are model-free, data -driven: click here to see how to compute them. A more general framework to assess and reduce sources of variance is called analysis of variance.

In the last part of the tutorial we introduced quantitative indicators of classification model quality. In the next two parts we will take a closer look at a couple of graphical indicators. The first one is called the Confusion Matrix (the name „Contingency Table" is also used).

In machine learning, you may often wish to build predictors that allows to classify things into categories based on some set of associated values. For example, it is possible to provide a diagnosis to a patient based on data from previous patients. Many algorithms have been developed for automated classification, and common ones include random forests, support vector machines, Naïve Bayes classifiers, and many types of neural networks. To get a feel for how classification works, we take a simple example of a classification algorithm – k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN) – and build it from scratch in Python 2. You can use a mostly imperative style of coding, rather than a declarative/functional one with lambda functions and list comprehensions to keep things simple if you are starting with Python. Here, we will provide an introduction to the latter approach.

Patent lawsuits are costly and time-consuming. An ability to forecast a patent litigation and time to litigation allows companies to better allocate budget and time in managing their patent portfolios. We develop predictive models for estimating the likelihood of litigation for patents and the expected time to litigation based on both textual and non-textual features. Our work focuses on improving the state-of-the-art by relying on a different set of features and employing more sophisticated algorithms with more realistic data. The rate of patent litigations is very low, which consequently makes the problem difficult. The initial model for predicting the likelihood is further modified to capture a time-to-litigation perspective.

At the heart of a classification model is the ability to assign a class to an object based on its description or features. When we build a classification model, often we have to prove that the model we built is significantly better than random guessing. How do we know if our machine learning model performs better than a classifier built by assigning labels or classes arbitrarily (through random guess, weighted guess etc.)? I will call the latter non-machine learning classifiers as these do not learn from the data. A machine learning classifier should be smarter and should not be making just lucky guesses!

Machine Learning is a subfield within Artificial Intelligence that builds algorithms that allow computers to learn to perform tasks from data instead of being explicitly programmed. We can make machines learn to do things! The first time I heard that, it blew my mind. That means that we can program computers to learn things by themselves! The ability of learning is one of the most important aspects of intelligence. Translating that power to machines, sounds like a huge step towards making them more intelligent. And in fact, Machine Learning is the area that is making most of the progress in Artificial Intelligence today; being a trendy topic right now and pushing the possibility to have more intelligent machines.

Financial markets are notoriously complex environments, presenting vast amounts of noisy, yet potentially informative data. We consider the problem of forecasting financial time series from a wide range of information sources using online Gaussian Processes with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) kernels. We measure the performance gain, quantified in terms of Normalised Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Pearson correlation, from fusing each of four separate data domains: time series technicals, sentiment analysis, options market data and broker recommendations. We show evidence that ARD kernels produce meaningful feature rankings that help retain salient inputs and reduce input dimensionality, providing a framework for sifting through financial complexity. We measure the performance gain from fusing each domain's heterogeneous data streams into a single probabilistic model. In particular our findings highlight the critical value of options data in mapping out the curvature of price space and inspire an intuitive, novel direction for research in financial prediction.

Learning the "blocking" structure is a central challenge for high dimensional data (e.g., gene expression data). Recently, a sparse singular value decomposition (SVD) has been used as a biclustering tool to achieve this goal. However, this model ignores the structural information between variables (e.g., gene interaction graph). Although typical graph-regularized norm can incorporate such prior graph information to get accurate discovery and better interpretability, it fails to consider the opposite effect of variables with different signs. Motivated by the development of sparse coding and graph-regularized norm, we propose a novel sparse graph-regularized SVD as a powerful biclustering tool for analyzing high-dimensional data. The key of this method is to impose two penalties including a novel graph-regularized norm ($|\pmb{u}|\pmb{L}|\pmb{u}|$) and $L_0$-norm ($\|\pmb{u}\|_0$) on singular vectors to induce structural sparsity and enhance interpretability. We design an efficient Alternating Iterative Sparse Projection (AISP) algorithm to solve it. Finally, we apply our method and related ones to simulated and real data to show its efficiency in capturing natural blocking structures.

Fault detection in industrial plants is a hot research area as more and more sensor data are being collected throughout the industrial process. Automatic data-driven approaches are widely needed and seen as a promising area of investment. This paper proposes an effective machine learning algorithm to predict industrial plant faults based on classification methods such as penalized logistic regression, random forest and gradient boosted tree. A fault's start time and end time are predicted sequentially in two steps by formulating the original prediction problems as classification problems. The algorithms described in this paper won first place in the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015 Data Challenge.