Performance Analysis
Towards actionable hypotension prediction -- predicting catecholamine therapy initiation in the intensive care unit
Koebe, Richard, Saibel, Noah, Alcaraz, Juan Miguel Lopez, Schäfer, Simon, Strodthoff, Nils
Hypotension in critically ill ICU patients is common and life-threatening. Escalation to catecholamine therapy marks a key management step, with both undertreatment and overtreatment posing risks. Most machine learning (ML) models predict hypotension using fixed MAP thresholds or MAP forecasting, overlooking the clinical decision behind treatment escalation. Predicting catecholamine initiation, the start of vasoactive or inotropic agent administration offers a more clinically actionable target reflecting real decision-making. Using the MIMIC-III database, we modeled catecholamine initiation as a binary event within a 15-minute prediction window. Input features included statistical descriptors from a two-hour sliding MAP context window, along with demographics, biometrics, comorbidities, and ongoing treatments. An Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was trained and interpreted via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The model achieved an AUROC of 0.822 (0.813-0.830), outperforming the hypotension baseline (MAP < 65, AUROC 0.686 [0.675-0.699]). SHAP analysis highlighted recent MAP values, MAP trends, and ongoing treatments (e.g., sedatives, electrolytes) as dominant predictors. Subgroup analysis showed higher performance in males, younger patients (<53 years), those with higher BMI (>32), and patients without comorbidities or concurrent medications. Predicting catecholamine initiation based on MAP dynamics, treatment context, and patient characteristics supports the critical decision of when to escalate therapy, shifting focus from threshold-based alarms to actionable decision support. This approach is feasible across a broad ICU cohort under natural event imbalance. Future work should enrich temporal and physiological context, extend label definitions to include therapy escalation, and benchmark against existing hypotension prediction systems.
Leveraging LLMs for Early Alzheimer's Prediction
We present a connectome-informed LLM framework that encodes dynamic fMRI connectivity as temporal sequences, applies robust normalization, and maps these data into a representation suitable for a frozen pre-trained LLM for clinical prediction. Applied to early Alzheimer's detection, our method achieves sensitive prediction with error rates well below clinically recognized margins, with implications for timely Alzheimer's intervention.
Decentralized Causal Discovery using Judo Calculus
We describe a theory and implementation of an intuitionistic decentralized framework for causal discovery using judo calculus, which is formally defined as j-stable causal inference using j-do-calculus in a topos of sheaves. In real-world applications -- from biology to medicine and social science -- causal effects depend on regime (age, country, dose, genotype, or lab protocol). Our proposed judo calculus formalizes this context dependence formally as local truth: a causal claim is proven true on a cover of regimes, not everywhere at once. The Lawvere-Tierney modal operator j chooses which regimes are relevant; j-stability means the claim holds constructively and consistently across that family. We describe an algorithmic and implementation framework for judo calculus, combining it with standard score-based, constraint-based, and gradient-based causal discovery methods. We describe experimental results on a range of domains, from synthetic to real-world datasets from biology and economics. Our experimental results show the computational efficiency gained by the decentralized nature of sheaf-theoretic causal discovery, as well as improved performance over classical causal discovery methods.
Auto prompting without training labels: An LLM cascade for product quality assessment in e-commerce catalogs
Satyadharma, Soham, Sheikholeslami, Fatemeh, Kaul, Swati, Batur, Aziz Umit, Khan, Suleiman A.
We introduce a novel, training free cascade for auto-prompting Large Language Models (LLMs) to assess product quality in e-commerce. Our system requires no training labels or model fine-tuning, instead automatically generating and refining prompts for evaluating attribute quality across tens of thousands of product category-attribute pairs. Starting from a seed of human-crafted prompts, the cascade progressively optimizes instructions to meet catalog-specific requirements. This approach bridges the gap between general language understanding and domain-specific knowledge at scale in complex industrial catalogs. Our extensive empirical evaluations shows the auto-prompt cascade improves precision and recall by $8-10\%$ over traditional chain-of-thought prompting. Notably, it achieves these gains while reducing domain expert effort from 5.1 hours to 3 minutes per attribute - a $99\%$ reduction. Additionally, the cascade generalizes effectively across five languages and multiple quality assessment tasks, consistently maintaining performance gains.
Differential Privacy: Gradient Leakage Attacks in Federated Learning Environments
Fernandez-de-Retana, Miguel, Zulaika, Unai, Sánchez-Corcuera, Rubén, Almeida, Aitor
Federated Learning (FL) allows for the training of Machine Learning models in a collaborative manner without the need to share sensitive data. However, it remains vulnerable to Gradient Leakage Attacks (GLAs), which can reveal private information from the shared model updates. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of Differential Privacy (DP) mechanisms - specifically, DP-SGD and a variant based on explicit regularization (PDP-SGD) - as defenses against GLAs. To this end, we evaluate the performance of several computer vision models trained under varying privacy levels on a simple classification task, and then analyze the quality of private data reconstructions obtained from the intercepted gradients in a simulated FL environment. Our results demonstrate that DP-SGD significantly mitigates the risk of gradient leakage attacks, albeit with a moderate trade-off in model utility. In contrast, PDP-SGD maintains strong classification performance but proves ineffective as a practical defense against reconstruction attacks. These findings highlight the importance of empirically evaluating privacy mechanisms beyond their theoretical guarantees, particularly in distributed learning scenarios where information leakage may represent an unassumable critical threat to data security and privacy.
Artificial Intelligence Based Predictive Maintenance for Electric Buses
Ercevik, Ayse Irmak, Ozbayoglu, Ahmet Murat
Predictive maintenance (PdM) is crucial for optimizing efficiency and minimizing downtime of electric buses. While these vehicles provide environmental benefits, they pose challenges for PdM due to complex electric transmission and battery systems. Traditional maintenance, often based on scheduled inspections, struggles to capture anomalies in multi-dimensional real-time CAN Bus data. This study employs a graph-based feature selection method to analyze relationships among CAN Bus parameters of electric buses and investigates the prediction performance of targeted alarms using artificial intelligence techniques. The raw data collected over two years underwent extensive preprocessing to ensure data quality and consistency. A hybrid graph-based feature selection tool was developed by combining statistical filtering (Pearson correlation, Cramer's V, ANOVA F-test) with optimization-based community detection algorithms (InfoMap, Leiden, Louvain, Fast Greedy). Machine learning models, including SVM, Random Forest, and XGBoost, were optimized through grid and random search with data balancing via SMOTEEN and binary search-based down-sampling. Model interpretability was achieved using LIME to identify the features influencing predictions. The results demonstrate that the developed system effectively predicts vehicle alarms, enhances feature interpretability, and supports proactive maintenance strategies aligned with Industry 4.0 principles.
On the Societal Impact of Machine Learning
This PhD thesis investigates the societal impact of machine learning (ML). ML increasingly informs consequential decisions and recommendations, significantly affecting many aspects of our lives. As these data-driven systems are often developed without explicit fairness considerations, they carry the risk of discriminatory effects. The contributions in this thesis enable more appropriate measurement of fairness in ML systems, systematic decomposition of ML systems to anticipate bias dynamics, and effective interventions that reduce algorithmic discrimination while maintaining system utility. I conclude by discussing ongoing challenges and future research directions as ML systems, including generative artificial intelligence, become increasingly integrated into society. This work offers a foundation for ensuring that ML's societal impact aligns with broader social values.
RoGBot: Relationship-Oblivious Graph-based Neural Network with Contextual Knowledge for Bot Detection
Anshul, Ashutosh, Rehman, Mohammad Zia Ur, Kadali, Sri Akash, Kumar, Nagendra
Abstract--Detecting automated accounts (bots) among genuine users on platforms like Twitter remains a challenging task due to the evolving behaviors and adaptive strategies of such accounts. While recent methods have achieved strong detection performance by combining text, metadata, and user relationship information within graph-based frameworks, many of these models heavily depend on explicit user-user relationship data. This reliance limits their applicability in scenarios where such information is unavailable. T o address this limitation, we propose a novel multimodal framework that integrates detailed textual features with enriched user metadata while employing graph-based reasoning without requiring follower-following data. Our method uses transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) to extract deep semantic embeddings from tweets, which are aggregated using max pooling to form comprehensive user-level representations. These are further combined with auxiliary behavioral features and passed through a GraphSAGE model to capture both local and global patterns in user behavior . Experimental results on the Cresci-15, Cresci-17, and PAN 2019 datasets demonstrate the robustness of our approach, achieving accuracies of 99.8%, 99.1%, and 96.8%, respectively, and highlighting its effectiveness against increasingly sophisticated bot strategies. Social media platforms have become essential tools for communication, sharing news, and fostering public engagement. However, the increasing presence of automated accounts, commonly known as bots, has raised serious concerns.
Structure-Aware Fusion with Progressive Injection for Multimodal Molecular Representation Learning
Jing, Zihao, Sun, Yan, Li, Yan Yi, Janarthanan, Sugitha, Deng, Alana, Hu, Pingzhao
Multimodal molecular models often suffer from 3D conformer unreliability and modality collapse, limiting their robustness and generalization. We propose MuMo, a structured multimodal fusion framework that addresses these challenges in molecular representation through two key strategies. To reduce the instability of conformer-dependent fusion, we design a Structured Fusion Pipeline (SFP) that combines 2D topology and 3D geometry into a unified and stable structural prior. To mitigate modality collapse caused by naive fusion, we introduce a Progressive Injection (PI) mechanism that asymmetrically integrates this prior into the sequence stream, preserving modality-specific modeling while enabling cross-modal enrichment. Built on a state space backbone, MuMo supports long-range dependency modeling and robust information propagation. Across 29 benchmark tasks from Therapeutics Data Commons (TDC) and MoleculeNet, MuMo achieves an average improvement of 2.7% over the best-performing baseline on each task, ranking first on 22 of them, including a 27% improvement on the LD50 task. These results validate its robustness to 3D conformer noise and the effectiveness of multimodal fusion in molecular representation. The code is available at: github.com/selmiss/MuMo.
Adversarially-Aware Architecture Design for Robust Medical AI Systems
Gerhart, Alyssa, Iyangar, Balaji
Adversarial attacks pose a severe risk to AI systems used in healthcare, capable of misleading models into dangerous misclassifications that can delay treatments or cause misdiagnoses. These attacks, often imperceptible to human perception, threaten patient safety, particularly in underserved populations. Our study explores these vulnerabilities through empirical experimentation on a dermatological dataset, where adversarial methods significantly reduce classification accuracy. Through detailed threat modeling, experimental benchmarking, and model evaluation, we demonstrate both the severity of the threat and the partial success of defenses like adversarial training and distillation. Our results show that while defenses reduce attack success rates, they must be balanced against model performance on clean data. We conclude with a call for integrated technical, ethical, and policy-based approaches to build more resilient, equitable AI in healthcare.