The O'Reilly Artificial Intelligence conference in New York is June 26-29, 2017. To train a machine learning system, you start with a lot of training data: millions of photos, for example. You divide that data into a training set and a test set. You use the training set to "train" the system so it can identify those images correctly. Then you use the test set to see how well the training works: how good is it at labeling a different set of images?

In my previous post, we saw that R-squared can lead to a misleading interpretation of the quality of our regression fit, in terms of prediction power. One thing that R-squared offers no protection against is overfitting. On the other hand, cross validation, by allowing us to have cases in our testing set that are different from the cases in our training set, inherently offers protection against overfittting. In this type of validation, one case in our data set is used as the test set, while the remaining cases are used as the training set. We iterate through the data set, until all cases have served as the test set.

And, it was first published on Dataconomy on Dec 21, 2016; I'm reposting here for ease of access.] In recent years, AI (artificial intelligence) researchers have finally cracked problems that they've worked on for decades, from Go to human-level speech recognition. A key piece was the ability to gather and learn on mountains of data, which pulled error rates past the success line. In short, big data has transformed AI, to an almost unreasonable level. Blockchain technology could transform AI too, in its own particular ways. Some applications of blockchains to AI are mundane, like audit trails on AI models. Some appear almost unreasonable, like AI that can own itself -- AI DAOs. All of them are opportunities. This article will explore these applications. Before we discuss applications, let's first review what's different about blockchains compared to traditional big-data distributed databases like MongoDB. We can think of blockchains as "blue ocean" databases: they escape the "bloody red ocean" of sharks competing in an existing market, opting instead to be in a blue ocean of uncontested market space.

It is no secret that private banking is in turmoil. While our view is that large banks possess a massive competitive advantage given the amount of data they create, trade in and see – private banking is an area of concern. Technology driven start-ups have made real inroads with millennials and private wealth management growth has stalled at many banks. Given the fixed cost nature of the supporting infrastructure this can quickly eat into earnings. There are a number of areas that banks can focus on, from aligning costs more effectively to enhancing the customer experience – but one chronic and elusive prize is churn.

WWE's next pay-per-view is set for Sunday night in Baltimore with Extreme Rules 2017. It will exclusively feature wrestlers from the "Monday Night Raw" roster. Six matches are on the Extreme Rules card, and the main event will determine the No.1 contender for Brock Lesnar's WWE Universal Championship. Below are predictions for every match at the event. Reigns is really the only superstar that has no chance in this match. The winner is expected to face Lesnar at the Great Balls of Fire PPV on July 9, and Reigns vs. Lesnar would only happen at SummerSlam or WrestleMania.

Tree ensemble models such as random forests and boosted trees are among the most widely used and practically successful predictive models in applied machine learning and business analytics. Although such models have been used to make predictions based on exogenous, uncontrollable independent variables, they are increasingly being used to make predictions where the independent variables are controllable and are also decision variables. In this paper, we study the problem of tree ensemble optimization: given a tree ensemble that predicts some dependent variable using controllable independent variables, how should we set these variables so as to maximize the predicted value? We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer optimization problem. We theoretically examine the strength of our formulation, provide a hierarchy of approximate formulations with bounds on approximation quality and exploit the structure of the problem to develop two large-scale solution methods, one based on Benders decomposition and one based on iteratively generating tree split constraints. We test our methodology on real data sets, including two case studies in drug design and customized pricing, and show that our methodology can efficiently solve large-scale instances to near or full optimality, and outperforms solutions obtained by heuristic approaches. In our drug design case, we show how our approach can identify compounds that efficiently trade-off predicted performance and novelty with respect to existing, known compounds. In our customized pricing case, we show how our approach can efficiently determine optimal store-level prices under a random forest model that delivers excellent predictive accuracy.

Forward-backward selection is one of the most basic and commonly-used feature selection algorithms available. It is also general and conceptually applicable to many different types of data. In this paper, we propose a heuristic that significantly improves its running time, while preserving predictive accuracy. The idea is to temporarily discard the variables that are conditionally independent with the outcome given the selected variable set. Depending on how those variables are reconsidered and reintroduced, this heuristic gives rise to a family of algorithms with increasingly stronger theoretical guarantees. In distributions that can be faithfully represented by Bayesian networks or maximal ancestral graphs, members of this algorithmic family are able to correctly identify the Markov blanket in the sample limit. In experiments we show that the proposed heuristic increases computational efficiency by about two orders of magnitude in high-dimensional problems, while selecting fewer variables and retaining predictive performance. Furthermore, we show that the proposed algorithm and feature selection with LASSO perform similarly when restricted to select the same number of variables, making the proposed algorithm an attractive alternative for problems where no (efficient) algorithm for LASSO exists.

Objectives: Discussions of fairness in criminal justice risk assessments typically lack conceptual precision. Rhetoric too often substitutes for careful analysis. In this paper, we seek to clarify the tradeoffs between different kinds of fairness and between fairness and accuracy. Methods: We draw on the existing literatures in criminology, computer science and statistics to provide an integrated examination of fairness and accuracy in criminal justice risk assessments. We also provide an empirical illustration using data from arraignments. Results: We show that there are at least six kinds of fairness, some of which are incompatible with one another and with accuracy. Conclusions: Except in trivial cases, it is impossible to maximize accuracy and fairness at the same time, and impossible simultaneously to satisfy all kinds of fairness. In practice, a major complication is different base rates across different legally protected groups. There is a need to consider challenging tradeoffs.

Missingness was an important issue with this dataset. I ignored certain missing items, such as a house not being available on Zillow, under the assumption that they item got dropped for technical reasons in the web scraping process. But others I was less confident about.

The majority of medical documents and electronic health records (EHRs) are in text format that poses a challenge for data processing and finding relevant documents. Looking for ways to automatically retrieve the enormous amount of health and medical knowledge has always been an intriguing topic. Powerful methods have been developed in recent years to make the text processing automatic. One of the popular approaches to retrieve information based on discovering the themes in health & medical corpora is topic modeling, however, this approach still needs new perspectives. In this research we describe fuzzy latent semantic analysis (FLSA), a novel approach in topic modeling using fuzzy perspective. FLSA can handle health & medical corpora redundancy issue and provides a new method to estimate the number of topics. The quantitative evaluations show that FLSA produces superior performance and features to latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), the most popular topic model.