Performance Analysis
A Convex Framework for Fair Regression
Berk, Richard, Heidari, Hoda, Jabbari, Shahin, Joseph, Matthew, Kearns, Michael, Morgenstern, Jamie, Neel, Seth, Roth, Aaron
The widespread use of machine learning to make consequential decisions about individual citizens (including in domains such as credit, employment, education and criminal sentencing [3, 4, 26, 29]) has been accompanied by increased reports of instances in which the algorithms and models employed can be unfair or discriminatory in a variety of ways [2, 30]. As a result, research on fairness in machine learning and statistics has seen rapid growth in recent years [1, 5-7, 9-11, 13, 14, 18-21, 25, 27], and several mathematical formulations have been proposed as metrics of (un)fairness for a number of different learning frameworks. While much of the attention to date has focused on (binary) classification settings, where standard fairness notions include equal false positive or negative rates across different populations, less attention has been paid to fairness in (linear and logistic) regression settings, where the target and/or predicted values are continuous, and the same value may not occur even twice in the training data. In this work, we introduce a rich family of fairness metrics for regression models that take the form of a fairness regularizer and apply them to the standard loss functions for linear and logistic regression. Since these loss functions and our fairness regularizer are convex, the combined objective functions obtained from our framework are also convex, and thus permit efficient optimization. Furthermore, our family of fairness metrics covers the spectrum from the type of group fairness that is common in classification formulations (where e.g.
On learning the structure of Bayesian Networks and submodular function maximization
Caravagna, Giulio, Ramazzotti, Daniele, Sanguinetti, Guido
Learning the structure of dependencies among multiple random variables is a problem of considerable theoretical and practical interest. In practice, score optimisation with multiple restarts provides a practical and surprisingly successful solution, yet the conditions under which this may be a well founded strategy are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove that the problem of identifying the structure of a Bayesian Network via regularised score optimisation can be recast, in expectation, as a submodular optimisation problem, thus guaranteeing optimality with high probability. This result both explains the practical success of optimisation heuristics, and suggests a way to improve on such algorithms by artificially simulating multiple data sets via a bootstrap procedure. We show on several synthetic data sets that the resulting algorithm yields better recovery performance than the state of the art, and illustrate in a real cancer genomic study how such an approach can lead to valuable practical insights.
Big data is used to sentence criminals, can algorithms predict future risk?
In 2013, a man named Eric L. Loomis was sentenced for eluding police and driving a car without the owner's consent. When the judge weighed Loomis' sentence, he considered an array of evidence, including the results of an automated risk assessment tool called COMPAS. Loomis' COMPAS score indicated he was at a "high risk" of committing new crimes. Considering this prediction, the judge sentenced him to seven years. Loomis challenged his sentence, arguing it was unfair to use the data-driven score against him.
50 Questions to Test True Data Science Knowledge
Explain what regularization is and why it is useful. What are the benefits and drawbacks of specific methods, such as ridge regression and LASSO? Explain what a local optimum is and why it is important in a specific context, such as k-means clustering. What are specific ways for determining if you have a local optimum problem? What can be done to avoid local optima?
Ten Steps of EM Suffice for Mixtures of Two Gaussians
Daskalakis, Constantinos, Tzamos, Christos, Zampetakis, Manolis
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used method for maximum likelihood estimation in models with latent variables. For estimating mixtures of Gaussians, its iteration can be viewed as a soft version of the k-means clustering algorithm. Despite its wide use and applications, there are essentially no known convergence guarantees for this method. We provide global convergence guarantees for mixtures of two Gaussians with known covariance matrices. We show that the population version of EM, where the algorithm is given access to infinitely many samples from the mixture, converges geometrically to the correct mean vectors, and provide simple, closed-form expressions for the convergence rate. As a simple illustration, we show that, in one dimension, ten steps of the EM algorithm initialized at infinity result in less than 1\% error estimation of the means. In the finite sample regime, we show that, under a random initialization, $\tilde{O}(d/\epsilon^2)$ samples suffice to compute the unknown vectors to within $\epsilon$ in Mahalanobis distance, where $d$ is the dimension. In particular, the error rate of the EM based estimator is $\tilde{O}\left(\sqrt{d \over n}\right)$ where $n$ is the number of samples, which is optimal up to logarithmic factors.
Embedding Feature Selection for Large-scale Hierarchical Classification
Large-scale Hierarchical Classification (HC) involves datasets consisting of thousands of classes and millions of training instances with high-dimensional features posing several big data challenges. Feature selection that aims to select the subset of discriminant features is an effective strategy to deal with large-scale HC problem. It speeds up the training process, reduces the prediction time and minimizes the memory requirements by compressing the total size of learned model weight vectors. Majority of the studies have also shown feature selection to be competent and successful in improving the classification accuracy by removing irrelevant features. In this work, we investigate various filter-based feature selection methods for dimensionality reduction to solve the large-scale HC problem. Our experimental evaluation on text and image datasets with varying distribution of features, classes and instances shows upto 3x order of speed-up on massive datasets and upto 45% less memory requirements for storing the weight vectors of learned model without any significant loss (improvement for some datasets) in the classification accuracy. Source Code: https://cs.gmu.edu/~mlbio/featureselection.
Choice of K in K-fold Cross Validation for Classification in Financial Market
Cross Validation is often used as a tool for model selection across classifiers. As discussed in detail in the following paper https://ssrn.com/abstract However, one question often pops up: how to choose K in K-fold cross validation. The rule-of-thumb choice often suggested by literature based on non-financial market is K 10. The question is: is it true for Financial Market?
Graphical Nonconvex Optimization for Optimal Estimation in Gaussian Graphical Models
Sun, Qiang, Tan, Kean Ming, Liu, Han, Zhang, Tong
We consider the problem of learning high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models. The graphical lasso is one of the most popular methods for estimating Gaussian graphical models. However, it does not achieve the oracle rate of convergence. In this paper, we propose the graphical nonconvex optimization for optimal estimation in Gaussian graphical models, which is then approximated by a sequence of convex programs. Our proposal is computationally tractable and produces an estimator that achieves the oracle rate of convergence. The statistical error introduced by the sequential approximation using the convex programs are clearly demonstrated via a contraction property. The rate of convergence can be further improved using the notion of sparsity pattern. The proposed methodology is then extended to semiparametric graphical models. We show through numerical studies that the proposed estimator outperforms other popular methods for estimating Gaussian graphical models.
UFC 212 Betting Odds, PPV Info For Jose Aldo vs. Max Holloway And Entire Fight Card
The rightful owner of the title Conor McGregor never defended will finally be determined Saturday night. The UFC featherweight championship fight between Jose Aldo and Max Holloway highlights UFC 212 from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main event is the only championship fight on the card, and the latest UFC 212 betting odds indicate that the current champion will hold onto his belt. The event costs $69.99 to order in HD on pay-per-view, and it's scheduled to start at 9 p.m. EDT. Fans can watch the fights with a live stream online by ordering UFC 212 at ufc.tv for $59.99.
Multiple Kernel Learning and Automatic Subspace Relevance Determination for High-dimensional Neuroimaging Data
Ayhan, Murat Seckin, Raghavan, Vijay, Initiative, Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging
Alzheimer's disease is a major cause of dementia. Its diagnosis requires accurate biomarkers that are sensitive to disease stages. In this respect, we regard probabilistic classification as a method of designing a probabilistic biomarker for disease staging. Probabilistic biomarkers naturally support the interpretation of decisions and evaluation of uncertainty associated with them. In this paper, we obtain probabilistic biomarkers via Gaussian Processes. Gaussian Processes enable probabilistic kernel machines that offer flexible means to accomplish Multiple Kernel Learning. Exploiting this flexibility, we propose a new variation of Automatic Relevance Determination and tackle the challenges of high dimensionality through multiple kernels. Our research results demonstrate that the Gaussian Process models are competitive with or better than the well-known Support Vector Machine in terms of classification performance even in the cases of single kernel learning. Extending the basic scheme towards the Multiple Kernel Learning, we improve the efficacy of the Gaussian Process models and their interpretability in terms of the known anatomical correlates of the disease. For instance, the disease pathology starts in and around the hippocampus and entorhinal cortex. Through the use of Gaussian Processes and Multiple Kernel Learning, we have automatically and efficiently determined those portions of neuroimaging data. In addition to their interpretability, our Gaussian Process models are competitive with recent deep learning solutions under similar settings.