Employee turnover (attrition) is a major cost to an organization, and predicting turnover is at the forefront of needs of Human Resources (HR) in many organizations. Until now the mainstream approach has been to use logistic regression or survival curves to model employee attrition. However, with advancements in machine learning (ML), we can now get both better predictive performance and better explanations of what critical features are linked to employee attrition. First, we'll use the h2o package's new FREE automatic machine learning algorithm, h2o.automl(), to develop a predictive model that is in the same ballpark as commercial products in terms of ML accuracy. Then we'll use the new lime package that enables breakdown of complex, black-box machine learning models into variable importance plots.

We develop an end-to-end training algorithm for whole-image breast cancer diagnosis based on mammograms. It requires lesion annotations only at the first stage of training. After that, a whole image classifier can be trained using only image level labels. This greatly reduced the reliance on lesion annotations. Our approach is implemented using an all convolutional design that is simple yet provides superior performance in comparison with the previous methods. On DDSM, our best single-model achieves a per-image AUC score of 0.88 and three-model averaging increases the score to 0.91. On INbreast, our best single-model achieves a per-image AUC score of 0.96. Using DDSM as benchmark, our models compare favorably with the current state-of-the-art. We also demonstrate that a whole image model trained on DDSM can be easily transferred to INbreast without using its lesion annotations and using only a small amount of training data.

In high dimension, it is customary to consider Lasso-type estimators to enforce sparsity. For standard Lasso theory to hold, the regularization parameter should be proportional to the noise level, yet the latter is generally unknown in practice. A possible remedy is to consider estimators, such as the Concomitant/Scaled Lasso, which jointly optimize over the regression coefficients as well as over the noise level, making the choice of the regularization independent of the noise level. However, when data from different sources are pooled to increase sample size, or when dealing with multimodal datasets, noise levels typically differ and new dedicated estimators are needed. In this work we provide new statistical and computational solutions to deal with such heteroscedastic regression models, with an emphasis on functional brain imaging with combined magneto- and electroencephalographic (M/EEG) signals. Adopting the formulation of Concomitant Lasso-type estimators, we propose a jointly convex formulation to estimate both the regression coefficients and the (square root of the) noise covariance. When our framework is instantiated to de-correlated noise, it leads to an efficient algorithm whose computational cost is not higher than for the Lasso and Concomitant Lasso, while addressing more complex noise structures. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our estimator yields improved prediction and support identification while correctly estimating the noise (square root) covariance. Results on multimodal neuroimaging problems with M/EEG data are also reported.

We consider the problem of quantifying the quality of a model selection problem for a graphical model. We discuss this by formulating the problem as a detection problem. Model selection problems usually minimize a distance between the original distribution and the model distribution. For the special case of Gaussian distributions, the model selection problem simplifies to the covariance selection problem which is widely discussed in literature by Dempster [2] where the likelihood criterion is maximized or equivalently the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is minimized to compute the model covariance matrix. While this solution is optimal for Gaussian distributions in the sense of the KL divergence, it is not optimal when compared with other information divergences and criteria such as Area Under the Curve (AUC). In this paper, we analytically compute upper and lower bounds for the AUC and discuss the quality of model selection problem using the AUC and its bounds as an accuracy measure in detection problem. We define the correlation approximation matrix (CAM) and show that analytical computation of the KL divergence, the AUC and its bounds only depend on the eigenvalues of CAM. We also show the relationship between the AUC, the KL divergence and the ROC curve by optimizing with respect to the ROC curve. In the examples provided, we pick tree structures as the simplest graphical models. We perform simulations on fully-connected graphs and compute the tree structured models by applying the widely used Chow-Liu algorithm [3]. Examples show that the quality of tree approximation models are not good in general based on information divergences, the AUC and its bounds when the number of nodes in the graphical model is large. We show both analytically and by simulations that the 1-AUC for the tree approximation model decays exponentially as the dimension of graphical model increases.

Machine Learning (ML) models are applied in a variety of tasks such as network intrusion detection or Malware classification. Yet, these models are vulnerable to a class of malicious inputs known as adversarial examples. These are slightly perturbed inputs that are classified incorrectly by the ML model. The mitigation of these adversarial inputs remains an open problem. As a step towards understanding adversarial examples, we show that they are not drawn from the same distribution than the original data, and can thus be detected using statistical tests. Using thus knowledge, we introduce a complimentary approach to identify specific inputs that are adversarial. Specifically, we augment our ML model with an additional output, in which the model is trained to classify all adversarial inputs. We evaluate our approach on multiple adversarial example crafting methods (including the fast gradient sign and saliency map methods) with several datasets. The statistical test flags sample sets containing adversarial inputs confidently at sample sizes between 10 and 100 data points. Furthermore, our augmented model either detects adversarial examples as outliers with high accuracy (> 80%) or increases the adversary's cost - the perturbation added - by more than 150%. In this way, we show that statistical properties of adversarial examples are essential to their detection.

Classifiers and rating scores are prone to implicitly codifying biases, which may be present in the training data, against protected classes (i.e., age, gender, or race). So it is important to understand how to design classifiers and scores that prevent discrimination in predictions. This paper develops computationally tractable algorithms for designing accurate but fair support vector machines (SVM's). Our approach imposes a constraint on the covariance matrices conditioned on each protected class, which leads to a nonconvex quadratic constraint in the SVM formulation. We develop iterative algorithms to compute fair linear and kernel SVM's, which solve a sequence of relaxations constructed using a spectral decomposition of the nonconvex constraint. Its effectiveness in achieving high prediction accuracy while ensuring fairness is shown through numerical experiments on several data sets.

Maximizing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a standard approach to imbalanced classification. So far, various supervised AUC optimization methods have been developed and they are also extended to semi-supervised scenarios to cope with small sample problems. However, existing semi-supervised AUC optimization methods rely on strong distributional assumptions, which are rarely satisfied in real-world problems. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised AUC optimization method that does not require such restrictive assumptions. We first develop an AUC optimization method based only on positive and unlabeled data (PU-AUC) and then extend it to semi-supervised learning by combining it with a supervised AUC optimization method. We theoretically prove that, without the restrictive distributional assumptions, unlabeled data contribute to improving the generalization performance in PU and semi-supervised AUC optimization methods. Finally, we demonstrate the practical usefulness of the proposed methods through experiments.

In my last post, I covered the introduction to Regularization in supervised learning models. In this post, let's go over some of the regularization techniques widely used and the key difference between those. A regression model that uses L1 regularization technique is called Lasso Regression and model which uses L2 is called Ridge Regression. The key difference between these two is the penalty term. Ridge regression adds "squared magnitude" of coefficient as penalty term to the loss function.

This paper considers the problem of brain disease classification based on connectome data. A connectome is a network representation of a human brain. The typical connectome classification problem is very challenging because of the small sample size and high dimensionality of the data. We propose to use simultaneous approximate diagonalization of adjacency matrices in order to compute their eigenstructures in more stable way. The obtained approximate eigenvalues are further used as features for classification. The proposed approach is demonstrated to be efficient for detection of Alzheimer's disease, outperforming simple baselines and competing with state-of-the-art approaches to brain disease classification.

In this paper, we study the Nystr{\"o}m type subsampling for large scale kernel methods to reduce the computational complexities of big data. We discuss the multi-penalty regularization scheme based on Nystr{\"o}m type subsampling which is motivated from well-studied manifold regularization schemes. We develop a theoretical analysis of multi-penalty least-square regularization scheme under the general source condition in vector-valued function setting, therefore the results can also be applied to multi-task learning problems. We achieve the optimal minimax convergence rates of multi-penalty regularization using the concept of effective dimension for the appropriate subsampling size. We discuss an aggregation approach based on linear function strategy to combine various Nystr{\"o}m approximants. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of multi-penalty regularization based on Nystr{\"o}m type subsampling on Caltech-101 data set for multi-class image classification and NSL-KDD benchmark data set for intrusion detection problem.