We introduce Aeolus, a large-scale Multi-modal Flight Delay Dataset designed to advance research on flight delay prediction and support the development of foundation models for tabular data. Existing datasets in this domain are typically limited to flat tabular structures and fail to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics inherent in delay propagation. Aeolus addresses this limitation by providing three aligned modalities: (i) a tabular dataset with rich operational, meteorological, and airportlevel features for over 50 million flights; (ii) a flight chain module that models delay propagation along sequential flight legs, capturing upstream and downstream dependencies; and (iii) a flight network graph that encodes shared aircraft, crew, and airport resource connections, enabling cross-flight relational reasoning. The dataset is carefully constructed with temporal splits, comprehensive features, and strict leakage prevention to support realistic and reproducible machine learning evaluation. Aeolus supports a broad range of tasks, including regression, classification, temporal structure modeling, and graph learning, serving as a unified benchmark across tabular, sequential, and graph modalities. We release baseline experiments and preprocessing tools to facilitate adoption.

Real-world multivariate time series anomalies are rare and often unlabeled. Additionally, prevailing methods rely on increasingly complex architectures tuned to benchmarks, detecting only fragments of anomalous segments and overstating performance. In this paper, we introduce OracleAD, a simple and interpretable unsupervised framework for multivariate time series anomaly detection. OracleAD encodes each variable's past sequence into a single causal embedding to jointly predict the present time point and reconstruct the input window, effectively modeling temporal dynamics. These embeddings then undergo self-attention mechanism to project them into a shared latent space and capture spatial relationships.

Pretrained vision-language models such as CLIP achieve strong zero-shot generalization but remain vulnerable to distribution shifts caused by input corruptions. In this work, we investigate how corruptions affect CLIP's image embeddings and uncover a consistent phenomenon we term as embedding variance collapse, where both intra-class and inter-class variances shrink as corruption severity increases. We find that this collapse is closely tied to performance degradation, with inter-class variance strongly correlated with classification accuracy. To explain this phenomenon, we analyze how corruptions alter the structure of the embedding space. Our theoretical results suggest that the visual encoder tends to encode corruption-related signals, which dilute class-discriminative features and compress the representation geometry. We further show that maximizing inter-class variance, even when estimated from pseudo-labels, can provably enhance embedding quality. Based on this insight, we propose Mint, a simple test-time adaptation method that maximizes pseudo-label-based inter-class variance on the fly using cumulative prototypes and gradient estimates. Mintoperates effectively with small batch sizes and consistently improves performance across multiple corruption benchmarks and CLIP architectures. Our code is available at https://github.com/baowenxuan/Mint.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have greatly improved crossmodal semantic understanding, yet significant limitations remain in fine-grained discrimination and deep causal reasoning tasks. Existing VLMs often rely on superficial statistical correlations, lacking the ability to capture the underlying causal logic between visual and textual content. To address this, we propose CounterFactual Vision-Language Fine-tuning (CF-VLM), a novel framework that enhances the causal reasoning capabilities of VLMs through the targeted use of counterfactual samples. CF-VLM introduces three complementary training objectives: maintaining foundational cross-modal alignment, reinforcing the uniqueness, and stability of factual scene representations against coherent counterfactuals, and sharpening the model's sensitivity to minimal but critical causal edits. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CF-VLM consistently outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods on compositional reasoning and generalization benchmarks. Furthermore, it shows promise in mitigating visual hallucinations, indicating improved factual consistency. Our CF-VLM provides a robust foundation for deploying VLMs in high-stakes, real-world scenarios requiring reliable reasoning and interpretability code.

Hierarchical optimization refers to problems with interdependent decision variables and objectives, such as minimax and bilevel formulations. While various algorithms have been proposed, existing methods and analyses lack adaptivity in stochastic optimization settings: they cannot achieve optimal convergence rates across a wide spectrum of gradient noise levels without prior knowledge of the noise magnitude. In this paper, we propose novel adaptive algorithms for two important classes of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems: nonconvex-strongly-concave minimax optimization and nonconvex-strongly-convex bilevel optimization. Our algorithms achieve sharp convergence rates of eO(1/ T + σ/T1/4) in T iterations for the gradient norm, where σ is an upper bound on the stochastic gradient noise. Notably, these rates are obtained without prior knowledge of the noise level, thereby enabling automatic adaptivity in both low and high-noise regimes. To our knowledge, this work provides the first adaptive and sharp convergence guarantees for stochastic hierarchical optimization. Our algorithm design combines the momentum normalization technique with novel adaptive parameter choices. Extensive experiments on synthetic and deep learning tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently demonstrated strong potential in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Particularly, the "Zero" reinforcement learning introduced by Deepseek-R1-Zero, enables direct RL training of base LLMs without relying on an intermediate supervised fine-tuning stage. Despite these advancements, current works for LLM reasoning mainly focus on mathematical and coding domains, largely due to data abundance and the ease of answer verification. This limits the applicability and generalization of such models to broader domains, where questions often have diverse answer representations, and data is more scarce. In this paper, we propose General-Reasoner, a novel training framework designed to enhance LLM reasoning capabilities across diverse domains. Our key contributions include: (1) constructing a large-scale, high-quality dataset of questions with verifiable answers curated by web crawling, covering a wide range of disciplines; and (2) developing a generative model-based answer verifier, which replaces traditional rule-based verification with the capability of chain-of-thought and context-awareness. We train a series of models and evaluate them on a wide range of datasets covering wide domains like physics, chemistry, finance, electronics etc.

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a foundational tool in machine learning, with recent work emphasizing its connections to neural networks. However, existing theory primarily addresses the i.i.d.

The physical sciences are replete with dynamical systems that require the resolution of a wide range of length and time scales. This presents significant computational challenges since direct numerical simulation requires discretization at the finest relevant scales, leading to a high-dimensional state space. In this work, we propose an approach to learn stochastic multiscale models in the form of stochastic differential equations directly from observational data. Drawing inspiration from physics-based multiscale modeling approaches, we resolve the macroscale state on a coarse mesh while introducing a microscale latent state to explicitly model unresolved dynamics. We learn the parameters of the multiscale model using a simulator-free amortized variational inference method with a Product of Experts likelihood that enforces scale separation. We present detailed numerical studies to demonstrate that our learned multiscale models achieve superior predictive accuracy compared to under-resolved direct numerical simulation and closure-type models at equivalent resolution, as well as reduced-order modeling approaches.

Algorithmic fairness has emerged as a central issue in ML, and it has become standard practice to adjust ML algorithms so that they will satisfy fairness requirements such as Equal Opportunity. In this paper we consider the effects of adopting such fair classifiers on the overall level of ecosystem fairness. Specifically, we introduce the study of fairness with competing firms, and demonstrate the failure of fair classifiers in yielding fair ecosystems. Our results quantify the loss of fairness in systems, under a variety of conditions, based on classifiers' correlation and the level of their data overlap. We show that even if competing classifiers are individually fair, the ecosystem's outcome may be unfair; and that adjusting biased algorithms to improve their individual fairness may lead to an overall decline in ecosystem fairness. In addition to these theoretical results, we also provide supporting experimental evidence. Together, our model and results provide a novel and essential call for action.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed to generate incorrect answers with high confidence--a phenomenon known as "overconfidence". Recent efforts have focused on calibrating LLMs' verbalized confidence: i.e., their expressions of confidence in text form, such as "I am 80% confident that...". Existing approaches either rely on prompt engineering or fine-tuning with heuristically generated uncertainty estimates, both of which have limited effectiveness and generalizability. Motivated by the notion of proper scoring rules for calibration in classical machine learning models, we introduce ConfTuner, a simple and efficient fine-tuning method that introduces minimal overhead and does not require ground-truth confidence scores or proxy confidence estimates. ConfTuner relies on a new loss function, tokenized Brier score, which we theoretically prove to be a proper scoring rule, intuitively meaning that it "correctly incentivizes the model to report its true probability of being correct". ConfTuner improves calibration across diverse reasoning tasks and generalizes to black-box models such as GPT-4o. Our results further show that better-calibrated confidence enables downstream gains in self-correction and model cascade, advancing the development of trustworthy LLM systems.