While crowdsourcing has become an important means to label data, crowdworkers are not always experts---sometimes they can even be adversarial. Therefore, there is great interest in estimating the ground truth from unreliable labels produced by crowdworkers. The Dawid and Skene (DS) model is one of the most well-known models in the study of crowdsourcing. Despite its practical popularity, theoretical error analysis for the DS model has been conducted only under restrictive assumptions on, e.g., class priors, confusion matrices, and the number of labels each worker provides. In this paper, we derive a minimax error rate under more practical setting for a broader class of crowdsourcing models that includes the DS model as a special case. We further propose the worker clustering model, which is more practical than the DS model under real crowdsourcing settings. Note that the wide applicability of our theoretical analysis allows us to immediately investigate the behavior of this proposed model. Experimental results showed that there is a strong similarity between the lower bound of the minimax error rate derived by our theoretical analysis and the empirical error of the estimated value.

Computers are increasingly used to make decisions that have significant impact in people's lives. Often, these predictions can affect different population subgroups disproportionately. As a result, the issue of fairness has received much recent interest, and a number of fairness-enhanced classifiers and predictors have appeared in the literature. This paper seeks to study the following questions: how do these different techniques fundamentally compare to one another, and what accounts for the differences? Specifically, we seek to bring attention to many under-appreciated aspects of such fairness-enhancing interventions. Concretely, we present the results of an open benchmark we have developed that lets us compare a number of different algorithms under a variety of fairness measures, and a large number of existing datasets. We find that although different algorithms tend to prefer specific formulations of fairness preservations, many of these measures strongly correlate with one another. In addition, we find that fairness-preserving algorithms tend to be sensitive to fluctuations in dataset composition (simulated in our benchmark by varying training-test splits), indicating that fairness interventions might be more brittle than previously thought.

Although aviation accidents are rare, safety incidents occur more frequently and require a careful analysis to detect and mitigate risks in a timely manner. Analyzing safety incidents using operational data and producing event-based explanations is invaluable to airline companies as well as to governing organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the United States. However, this task is challenging because of the complexity involved in mining multi-dimensional heterogeneous time series data, the lack of time-step-wise annotation of events in a flight, and the lack of scalable tools to perform analysis over a large number of events. In this work, we propose a precursor mining algorithm that identifies events in the multidimensional time series that are correlated with the safety incident. Precursors are valuable to systems health and safety monitoring and in explaining and forecasting safety incidents. Current methods suffer from poor scalability to high dimensional time series data and are inefficient in capturing temporal behavior. We propose an approach by combining multiple-instance learning (MIL) and deep recurrent neural networks (DRNN) to take advantage of MIL's ability to learn using weakly supervised data and DRNN's ability to model temporal behavior. We describe the algorithm, the data, the intuition behind taking a MIL approach, and a comparative analysis of the proposed algorithm with baseline models. We also discuss the application to a real-world aviation safety problem using data from a commercial airline company and discuss the model's abilities and shortcomings, with some final remarks about possible deployment directions.

Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a novel framework for building a Hybrid Decision Model that integrates an interpretable model with any black-box model to introduce explanations in the decision making process while preserving or possibly improving the predictive accuracy. We propose a novel metric, explainability, to measure the percentage of data that are sent to the interpretable model for decision. We also design a principled objective function that considers predictive accuracy, model interpretability, and data explainability. Under this framework, we develop Collaborative Black-box and RUle Set Hybrid (CoBRUSH) model that combines logic rules and any black-box model into a joint decision model. An input instance is first sent to the rules for decision. If a rule is satisfied, a decision will be directly generated. Otherwise, the black-box model is activated to decide on the instance. To train a hybrid model, we design an efficient search algorithm that exploits theoretically grounded strategies to reduce computation. Experiments show that CoBRUSH models are able to achieve same or better accuracy than their black-box collaborator working alone while gaining explainability. They also have smaller model complexity than interpretable baselines.

We propose a novel class of time-varying nonparanormal graphical models, which allows us to model high dimensional heavy-tailed systems and the evolution of their latent network structures. Under this model, we develop statistical tests for presence of edges both locally at a fixed index value and globally over a range of values. The tests are developed for a high-dimensional regime, are robust to model selection mistakes and do not require commonly assumed minimum signal strength. The testing procedures are based on a high dimensional, debiasing-free moment estimator, which uses a novel kernel smoothed Kendall's tau correlation matrix as an input statistic. The estimator consistently estimates the latent inverse Pearson correlation matrix uniformly in both the index variable and kernel bandwidth. Its rate of convergence is shown to be minimax optimal. Our method is supported by thorough numerical simulations and an application to a neural imaging data set.

The functional significance of resting state networks and their abnormal manifestations in psychiatric disorders are firmly established, as is the importance of the cortical rhythms in mediating these networks. Resting state networks are known to undergo substantial reorganization from childhood to adulthood, but whether distinct cortical rhythms, which are generated by separable neural mechanisms and are often manifested abnormally in psychiatric conditions, mediate maturation differentially, remains unknown. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG) to map frequency band specific maturation of resting state networks from age 7 to 29 in 162 participants (31 independent), we found significant changes with age in networks mediated by the beta (13-30Hz) and gamma (31-80Hz) bands. More specifically, gamma band mediated networks followed an expected asymptotic trajectory, but beta band mediated networks followed a linear trajectory. Network integration increased with age in gamma band mediated networks, while local segregation increased with age in beta band mediated networks. Spatially, the hubs that changed in importance with age in the beta band mediated networks had relatively little overlap with those that showed the greatest changes in the gamma band mediated networks. These findings are relevant for our understanding of the neural mechanisms of cortical maturation, in both typical and atypical development.

A key phase in the bridge design process is the selection of the structural system. Due to budget and time constraints, engineers typically rely on engineering judgment and prior experience when selecting a structural system, often considering a limited range of design alternatives. The objective of this study was to explore the suitability of supervised machine learning as a preliminary design aid that provides guidance to engineers with regards to the statistically optimal bridge type to choose, ultimately improving the likelihood of optimized design, design standardization, and reduced maintenance costs. In order to devise this supervised learning system, data for over 600,000 bridges from the National Bridge Inventory database were analyzed. Key attributes for determining the bridge structure type were identified through three feature selection techniques. Potentially useful attributes like seismic intensity and historic data on the cost of materials (steel and concrete) were then added from the US Geological Survey (USGS) database and Engineering News Record. Decision tree, Bayes network and Support Vector Machines were used for predicting the bridge design type. Due to state-to-state variations in material availability, material costs, and design codes, supervised learning models based on the complete data set did not yield favorable results. Supervised learning models were then trained and tested using 10-fold cross validation on data for each state. Inclusion of seismic data improved the model performance noticeably. The data was then resampled to reduce the bias of the models towards more common design types, and the supervised learning models thus constructed showed further improvements in performance. The average recall and precision for the state models was 88.6% and 88.0% using Decision Trees, 84.0% and 83.7% using Bayesian Networks, and 80.8% and 75.6% using SVM.

Ensembles have rapidly become one of the hottest and most popular methods in applied machine learning. Virtually every winning Kaggle solution features them, and many data science pipelines have ensembles in them. Put simply, ensembles combine predictions from different models to generate a final prediction, and the more models we include the better it performs. Better still, because ensembles combine baseline predictions, they perform at least as well as the best baseline model. Ensembles give us a performance boost almost for free!

You've created a model to predict which sales leads are likely to turn into convert into paying customers. The model is a true work of algorithmic beauty -- its your Mona Lisa, but better since it actually does something useful. You have tuned the parameters and cross-validated the results, which means the only thing left to do is present your work to the company's executives. "No problem" you think to yourself, you'll just talk them through a Confusion Matrix and ROC curve and wait for them to lavish you in riches and praise. Anyone who has tried to walk business stakeholders through predictive model performance knows that you are more likely to get strained expressions and blank stares than a standing ovation.

Color to a set of bars within the histogram was assigned based on the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guideline driven cutoff values for high and low creatinine. Model predictions were performed on the remaining 30% of the data (n 662), and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated. Color to a set of bars within the histogram was assigned based on the KDOQI guideline driven cutoff value for nephrotic-range proteinuria (g/d). Model predictions were performed on the remaining 30% of the data (n 648), and an ROC curve was generated.