Early prognosis of Alzheimer's dementia is hard. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) typically precedes Alzheimer's dementia, yet only a fraction of MCI individuals will progress to dementia, even when screened using biomarkers. We propose here to identify a subset of individuals who share a common brain signature highly predictive of oncoming dementia. This signature was composed of brain atrophy and functional dysconnectivity and discovered using a machine learning model in patients suffering from dementia. The model recognized the same brain signature in MCI individuals, 90% of which progressed to dementia within three years. This result is a marked improvement on the state-of-theart in prognostic precision, while the brain signature still identified 47% of all MCI progressors. We thus discovered a sizable MCI subpopulation which represents an excellent recruitment target for clinical trials at the prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. Acknowledgement_List.pdf Preprint submitted to March 5, 2018 1. Introduction Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common age-related neurodegenerative disorder. The typical progression of late-onset, sporadic AD comprises a lengthy preclinical stage, a prodromal stage of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and a final stage of dementia. Usually, by the time patients suffer from dementia, severe and irreversible neurodegeneration has already occurred.

Evaluating your machine learning algorithm is an essential part of any project. Your model may give you satisfying results when evaluated using a metric say accuracy_score but may give poor results when evaluated against other metrics such as logarithmic_loss or any other such metric. Most of the times we use classification accuracy to measure the performance of our model, however it is not enough to truly judge our model. In this post, we will cover different types of evaluation metrics available. Classification Accuracy is what we usually mean, when we use the term accuracy.

Human inertial thinking schemes can be formed through learning, which are then applied to quickly solve similar problems later. However, when problems are significantly different, inertial thinking generally presents the solutions that are definitely imperfect. In such cases, people will apply creative thinking, such as reverse thinking, to solve problems. Similarly, machine learning methods also form inertial thinking schemes through learning the knowledge from a large amount of data. However, when the testing data are vastly difference, the formed inertial thinking schemes will inevitably generate errors. This kind of inertial thinking is called illusion inertial thinking. Because all machine learning methods do not consider illusion inertial thinking, in this paper we propose a new method that uses reverse thinking to correct illusion inertial thinking, which increases the generalization ability of machine learning methods. Experimental results on benchmark datasets are used to validate the proposed method.

In most machine learning applications, classification accuracy is not the primary metric of interest. Binary classifiers which face class imbalance are often evaluated by the $F_\beta$ score, area under the precision-recall curve, Precision at K, and more. The maximization of many of these metrics can be expressed as a constrained optimization problem, where the constraint is a function of the classifier's predictions. In this paper we propose a novel framework for learning with constraints that can be expressed as a predicted positive rate (or negative rate) on a subset of the training data. We explicitly model the threshold at which a classifier must operate to satisfy the constraint, yielding a surrogate loss function which avoids the complexity of constrained optimization. The method is model-agnostic and only marginally more expensive than minimization of the unconstrained loss. Experiments on a variety of benchmarks show competitive performance relative to existing baselines.

Following related work in law and policy, two notions of disparity have come to shape the study of fairness in algorithmic decision-making. Algorithms exhibit treatment disparity if they formally treat members of protected subgroups differently; algorithms exhibit impact disparity when outcomes differ across subgroups, even if the correlation arises unintentionally. Naturally, we can achieve impact parity through purposeful treatment disparity. In one thread of technical work, papers aim to reconcile the two forms of parity proposing disparate learning processes (DLPs). Here, the learning algorithm can see group membership during training but produce a classifier that is group-blind at test time. In this paper, we show theoretically that: (i) When other features correlate to group membership, DLPs will (indirectly) implement treatment disparity, undermining the policy desiderata they are designed to address; (ii) When group membership is partly revealed by other features, DLPs induce within-class discrimination; and (iii) In general, DLPs provide a suboptimal trade-off between accuracy and impact parity. Based on our technical analysis, we argue that transparent treatment disparity is preferable to occluded methods for achieving impact parity. Experimental results on several real-world datasets highlight the practical consequences of applying DLPs vs. per-group thresholds.

Interpreting neural networks is a crucial and challenging task in machine learning. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for detecting statistical interactions captured by a feedforward multilayer neural network by directly interpreting its learned weights. Depending on the desired interactions, our method can achieve significantly better or similar interaction detection performance compared to the state-of-the-art without searching an exponential solution space of possible interactions. We obtain this accuracy and efficiency by observing that interactions between input features are created by the non-additive effect of nonlinear activation functions, and that interacting paths are encoded in weight matrices. We demonstrate the performance of our method and the importance of discovered interactions via experimental results on both synthetic datasets and real-world application datasets.

An increasing number of sensors on mobile, Internet of things (IoT), and wearable devices generate time-series measurements of physical activities. Though access to the sensory data is critical to the success of many beneficial applications such as health monitoring or activity recognition, a wide range of potentially sensitive information about the individuals can also be discovered through access to sensory data and this cannot easily be protected using traditional privacy approaches. In this paper, we propose a privacy-preserving sensing framework for managing access to time-series data in order to provide utility while protecting individuals' privacy. We introduce Replacement AutoEncoder, a novel algorithm which learns how to transform discriminative features of data that correspond to sensitive inferences, into some features that have been more observed in non-sensitive inferences, to protect users' privacy. This efficiency is achieved by defining a user-customized objective function for deep autoencoders. Our replacement method will not only eliminate the possibility of recognizing sensitive inferences, it also eliminates the possibility of detecting the occurrence of them. That is the main weakness of other approaches such as filtering or randomization. We evaluate the efficacy of the algorithm with an activity recognition task in a multi-sensing environment using extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets. We show that it can retain the recognition accuracy of state-of-the-art techniques while simultaneously preserving the privacy of sensitive information. Finally, we utilize the GANs for detecting the occurrence of replacement, after releasing data, and show that this can be done only if the adversarial network is trained on the users' original data.

Feature selection with high-dimensional data and a very small proportion of relevant features poses a severe challenge to standard statistical methods. We have developed a new approach (HARVEST) that is straightforward to apply, albeit somewhat computer-intensive. This algorithm can be used to pre-screen a large number of features to identify those that are potentially useful. The basic idea is to evaluate each feature in the context of many random subsets of other features. HARVEST is predicated on the assumption that an irrelevant feature can add no real predictive value, regardless of which other features are included in the subset. Motivated by this idea, we have derived a simple statistical test for feature relevance. Empirical analyses and simulations produced so far indicate that the HARVEST algorithm is highly effective in predictive analytics, both in science and business.

Classifying samples into categories becomes intractable when a single sample can have millions to billions of features, such as in genetics or imaging data. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is widely used to identify a low-dimensional representation of such features for further analysis. However, PCA ignores class labels, such as whether or not a subject has cancer, thereby discarding information that could substantially improve downstream classification performance. We describe an approach, "Linear Optimal Low-rank" projection (LOL), which extends PCA by incorporating the class labels in a fashion that is advantageous over existing supervised dimensionality reduction techniques. We prove, and substantiate with synthetic experiments, that LOL leads to a better representation of the data for subsequent classification than other linear approaches, while adding negligible computational cost. We then demonstrate that LOL substantially outperforms PCA in differentiating cancer patients from healthy controls using genetic data, and in differentiating gender using magnetic resonance imaging data with $>$500 million features and 400 gigabytes of data. LOL therefore allows the solution of previous intractable problems, yet requires only a few minutes to run on a desktop computer.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is a fast growing approach to measure the genome-wide transcriptome of many individual cells in parallel, but results in noisy data with many dropout events. Existing methods to learn molecular signatures from bulk transcriptomic data may therefore not be adapted to scRNA-seq data, in order to automatically classify individual cells into predefined classes. We propose a new method called DropLasso to learn a molecular signature from scRNA-seq data. DropLasso extends the dropout regularisation technique, popular in neural network training, to esti- mate sparse linear models. It is well adapted to data corrupted by dropout noise, such as scRNA-seq data, and we clarify how it relates to elastic net regularisation. We provide promising results on simulated and real scRNA-seq data, suggesting that DropLasso may be better adapted than standard regularisa- tions to infer molecular signatures from scRNA-seq data.