As AI deployments become more complex and high-stakes, it becomes increasingly important to be able to estimate their risk. AI control is one framework for doing so. However, good control evaluations require eliciting strong attack policies. This can be challenging in complex agentic environments where compute constraints leave us data-poor. In this work, we show how to optimize attack policies in SHADE-Arena, a dataset of diverse realistic control environments. We do this by decomposing attack capability into five constituent skills -- suspicion modeling, attack selection, plan synthesis, execution and subtlety -- and optimizing each component individually. To get around the constraint of limited data, we develop a probabilistic model of attack dynamics, optimize our attack hyperparameters using this simulation, and then show that the results transfer to SHADE-Arena. This results in a substantial improvement in attack strength, reducing safety score from a baseline of 0.87 to 0.41 using our scaffold.

In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this work by training a comprehensive set of machine learning models using a common dataset. In addition, we relate the win probabilities produced by these models to win strength as measured by score differential. In doing so we show that the most common machine learning models do indeed demonstrate a relationship between predicted win probability and the strength of the win. Finally, we analyze the results of using predicted win probabilities as a decision making mechanism on run-line betting. We demonstrate positive returns when utilizing appropriate betting strategies, and show that naive use of machine learning models for betting lead to significant loses.

Abstract--Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in critical security applications, such as alert analysis, threat detection, threat intelligence, and incident response. Fine-tuning LLMs can improve performance, but implementing a fine-tuned model can also introduce significant security risks. This paper investigates some of the risks introduced by "LLM poisoning," the intentional or unintentional introduction of malicious or biased data during model training. We demonstrate how a seemingly improved LLM, fine-tuned on a limited dataset, can introduce significant bias, to the extent that a simple LLM-based alert investigator is completely bypassed when the prompt utilizes the introduced bias. Using fine-tuned Llama3.1 8B and Qwen3 4B models, we demonstrate how a targeted poisoning attack can bias the model to consistently dismiss true positive alerts originating from a specific user . Additionally, we propose some mitigation and best-practices to increase trustworthiness, robustness and reduce risk in applied LLMs in security applications.

We introduce Omega^2, a Large Language Model-driven framework for corporate credit scoring that combines structured financial data with advanced machine learning to improve predictive reliability and interpretability. Our study evaluates Omega^2 on a multi-agency dataset of 7,800 corporate credit ratings drawn from Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch, and Egan-Jones, each containing detailed firm-level financial indicators such as leverage, profitability, and liquidity ratios. The system integrates CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost models optimized through Bayesian search under temporal validation to ensure forward-looking and reproducible results. Omega^2 achieved a mean test AUC above 0.93 across agencies, confirming its ability to generalize across rating systems and maintain temporal consistency. These results show that combining language-based reasoning with quantitative learning creates a transparent and institution-grade foundation for reliable corporate credit-risk assessment.

We investigate theoretical guarantees for the false-negative rate (FNR) -- the fraction of true causal edges whose orientation is not recovered, under single-variable random interventions and an $ε$-interventional faithfulness assumption that accommodates latent confounding. For sparse Erdős--Rényi directed acyclic graphs, where the edge probability scales as $p_e = Θ(1/d)$, we show that the FNR concentrates around its mean at rate $O(\frac{\log d}{\sqrt d})$, implying that large deviations above the expected error become exponentially unlikely as dimensionality increases. This concentration ensures that derived upper bounds hold with high probability in large-scale settings. Extending the analysis to generalized Barabási--Albert graphs reveals an even stronger phenomenon: when the degree exponent satisfies $γ> 3$, the deviation width scales as $O(d^{β- \frac{1}{2}})$ with $β= 1/(γ- 1) < \frac{1}{2}$, and hence vanishes in the limit. This demonstrates that realistic scale-free topologies intrinsically regularize causal discovery, reducing variability in orientation error. These finite-dimension results provide the first dimension-adaptive, faithfulness-robust guarantees for causal structure recovery, and challenge the intuition that high dimensionality and network heterogeneity necessarily hinder accurate discovery. Our simulation results corroborate these theoretical predictions, showing that the FNR indeed concentrates and often vanishes in practice as dimensionality grows.

Recent advances in multi-modal models have demonstrated strong performance in tasks such as image generation and reasoning. However, applying these models to the fire domain remains challenging due to the lack of publicly available datasets with high-quality fire domain annotations. To address this gap, we introduce DetectiumFire, a large-scale, multi-modal dataset comprising of 22.5k high-resolution fire-related images and 2.5k real-world fire-related videos covering a wide range of fire types, environments, and risk levels. The data are annotated with both traditional computer vision labels (e.g., bounding boxes) and detailed textual prompts describing the scene, enabling applications such as synthetic data generation and fire risk reasoning. DetectiumFire offers clear advantages over existing benchmarks in scale, diversity, and data quality, significantly reducing redundancy and enhancing coverage of real-world scenarios. We validate the utility of DetectiumFire across multiple tasks, including object detection, diffusion-based image generation, and vision-language reasoning. Our results highlight the potential of this dataset to advance fire-related research and support the development of intelligent safety systems. We release DetectiumFire to promote broader exploration of fire understanding in the AI community. The dataset is available at https://kaggle.com/datasets/38b79c344bdfc55d1eed3d22fbaa9c31fad45e27edbbe9e3c529d6e5c4f93890

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the question of their evaluation has recently gained a lot of attention. While most methods from the state of the art rely on scalar metrics, the introduction of Precision and Recall (PR) for generative model has opened up a new avenue of research. The associated PR curve allows for a richer analysis, but their estimation poses several challenges. In this paper, we present a new framework for estimating entire PR curves based on a binary classification standpoint. We conduct a thorough statistical analysis of the proposed estimates. As a byproduct, we obtain a minimax upper bound on the PR estimation risk. We also show that our framework extends several landmark PR metrics of the literature which by design are restrained to the extreme values of the curve. Finally, we study the different behaviors of the curves obtained experimentally in various settings.

We introduce a lightweight, real-time motion recognition system that enables synergic human-machine performance through wearable IMU sensor data, MiniRocket time-series classification, and responsive multimedia control. By mapping dancer-specific movement to sound through somatic memory and association, we propose an alternative approach to human-machine collaboration, one that preserves the expressive depth of the performing body while leveraging machine learning for attentive observation and responsiveness. We demonstrate that this human-centered design reliably supports high accuracy classification (<50 ms latency), offering a replicable framework to integrate dance-literate machines into creative, educational, and live performance contexts.

Drug synergy prediction is a critical task in the development of effective combination therapies for complex diseases, including cancer . Although existing methods have shown promising results, they often operate as black-box predictors that rely predominantly on statistical correlations between drug characteristics and results. T o address this limitation, we propose CausalDDS, a novel framework that disentangles drug molecules into causal and spurious substructures, utilizing the causal substructure representations for predicting drug synergy. By focusing on causal sub-structures, CausalDDS effectively mitigates the impact of redundant features introduced by spurious substructures, enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of the model. In addition, CausalDDS employs a conditional intervention mechanism, where interventions are conditioned on paired molecular structures, and introduces a novel optimization objective guided by the principles of sufficiency and independence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baseline models, particularly in cold start and out-of-distribution settings. Besides, CausalDDS effectively identifies key substructures underlying drug synergy, providing clear insights into how drug combinations work at the molecular level. These results underscore the potential of CausalDDS as a practical tool for predicting drug synergy and facilitating drug discovery.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a critical global health concern, demanding reliable and interpretable predictive models for early risk assessment. This study presents a large-scale analysis using the Heart Disease Health Indicators Dataset, developing a strategically weighted ensemble model that combines tree-based methods (LightGBM, XGBoost) with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict CVD risk. The model was trained on a preprocessed dataset of 229,781 patients where the inherent class imbalance was managed through strategic weighting and feature engineering enhanced the original 22 features to 25. The final ensemble achieves a statistically significant improvement over the best individual model, with a Test AUC of 0.8371 (p=0.003) and is particularly suited for screening with a high recall of 80.0%. To provide transparency and clinical interpretability, surrogate decision trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used. The proposed model delivers a combination of robust predictive performance and clinical transparency by blending diverse learning architectures and incorporating explainability through SHAP and surrogate decision trees, making it a strong candidate for real-world deployment in public health screening.