The 2017 ASSISTments Data Mining competition aims to use data from a longitudinal study for predicting a brand-new outcome of students which had never been studied before by the educational data mining research community. Specifically, it facilitates research in developing predictive models that predict whether the first job of a student out of college belongs to a STEM (the acronym for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) field. This is based on the student's learning history on the ASSISTments blended learning platform in the form of extensive clickstream data gathered during the middle school years. To tackle this challenge, we first estimate the expected knowledge state of students with respect to different mathematical skills using a deep knowledge tracing (DKT) model and an enhanced DKT (DKT+) model. We then combine the features corresponding to the DKT/DKT+ expected knowledge state with other features extracted directly from the student profile in the dataset to train several machine learning models for the STEM/non-STEM job prediction. Our experiments show that models trained with the combined features generally perform better than the models trained with the student profile alone. Detailed analysis of the student's knowledge state reveals that, when compared with non-STEM students, STEM students generally show a higher mastery level and a higher learning gain in mathematics.

"Machine learning" is a computer science discipline that refers to the ability for machines to learn with data and carry out tasks that would typically require human intelligence. The technology is growing quickly: according to Gartner, more than half of data and analytics services will be performed by machines rather than human beings by 2022, which is 10 percent more than today. The emergence of machine learning and its implementation into consumer facing applications coincides conveniently with today's real-time economy. Machine learning drives a decrease in fraud before it impacts the victim, just as our society has become as impatient as ever. In fact, more than 60 percent of people increasingly feel that waiting for something that should happen instantaneously impacts their perception of the underlying brand -- which is especially true when it comes to identity or financial fraud.

This Ph.D. thesis deals with the optimization of several renewable energy resources development as well as the improvement of facilities management in oceanic engineering and airports, using computational hybrid methods belonging to AI to this end. Energy is essential to our society in order to ensure a good quality of life. This means that predictions over the characteristics on which renewable energies depend are necessary, in order to know the amount of energy that will be obtained at any time. The second topic tackled in this thesis is related to the basic parameters that influence in different marine activities and airports, whose knowledge is necessary to develop a proper facilities management in these environments. Within this work, a study of the state-of-the-art Machine Learning have been performed to solve the problems associated with the topics above-mentioned, and several contributions have been proposed: One of the pillars of this work is focused on the estimation of the most important parameters in the exploitation of renewable resources. The second contribution of this thesis is related to feature selection problems. The proposed methodologies are applied to multiple problems: the prediction of $H_s$, relevant for marine energy applications and marine activities, the estimation of WPREs, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm, the prediction of global solar radiation in areas from Spain and Australia, really important in terms of solar energy, and the prediction of low-visibility events at airports. All of these practical issues are developed with the consequent previous data analysis, normally, in terms of meteorological variables.

We propose a new semiparametric approach to binary classification that exploits the modeling flexibility of sparse graphical models. Specifically, we assume that each class can be represented by a forest-structured graphical model. Under this assumption, the optimal classifier is linear in the log of the one- and two-dimensional marginal densities. Our proposed procedure non-parametrically estimates the univariate and bivariate marginal densities, maps each sample to the logarithm of these estimated densities and constructs a linear SVM in the transformed space. We prove convergence of the resulting classifier to an oracle SVM classifier and give finite sample bounds on its excess risk. Experiments with simulated and real data indicate that the resulting classifier is competitive with several popular methods across a range of applications.

We present MRPC, an R package that learns causal graphs with improved accuracy over existing packages, such as pcalg and bnlearn. Our algorithm builds on the powerful PC algorithm, the canonical algorithm in computer science for learning directed acyclic graphs. The improvement in accuracy results from online control of the false discovery rate (FDR) that reduces false positive edges, a more accurate approach to identifying v-structures (i.e., $T_1 \rightarrow T_2 \leftarrow T_3$), and robust estimation of the correlation matrix among nodes. For genomic data that contain genotypes and gene expression for each sample, MRPC incorporates the principle of Mendelian randomization to orient the edges. Our package can be applied to continuous and discrete data.

Given a binary prediction problem, which performance metric should the classifier optimize? We address this question by formalizing the problem of metric elicitation. In particular, we focus on eliciting binary performance metrics from pairwise preferences, where users provide relative feedback for pairs of classifiers. By exploiting key properties of the space of confusion matrices, we obtain provably query efficient algorithms for eliciting linear and linear-fractional metrics. We further show that our method is robust to feedback and finite sample noise.

Graphs are widely used as a natural framework that captures interactions between individual elements represented as nodes in a graph. In medical applications, specifically, nodes can represent individuals within a potentially large population (patients or healthy controls) accompanied by a set of features, while the graph edges incorporate associations between subjects in an intuitive manner. This representation allows to incorporate the wealth of imaging and non-imaging information as well as individual subject features simultaneously in disease classification tasks. Previous graph-based approaches for supervised or unsupervised learning in the context of disease prediction solely focus on pairwise similarities between subjects, disregarding individual characteristics and features, or rather rely on subject-specific imaging feature vectors and fail to model interactions between them. In this paper, we present a thorough evaluation of a generic framework that leverages both imaging and non-imaging information and can be used for brain analysis in large populations. This framework exploits Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and involves representing populations as a sparse graph, where its nodes are associated with imaging-based feature vectors, while phenotypic information is integrated as edge weights. The extensive evaluation explores the effect of each individual component of this framework on disease prediction performance and further compares it to different baselines. The framework performance is tested on two large datasets with diverse underlying data, ABIDE and ADNI, for the prediction of Autism Spectrum Disorder and conversion to Alzheimer's disease, respectively. Our analysis shows that our novel framework can improve over state-of-the-art results on both databases, with 70.4% classification accuracy for ABIDE and 80.0% for ADNI.

GuideR: a guided separate-and-conquer rule learning in classification, regression, and survival settings Marek Sikora a,b,, Łukasz Wróbel a,b,, Adam Gudyś a, a Institute of Informatics, Silesian University of Technology, Akademicka 16, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland b Institute of Innovative Technologies, EMAG, Leopolda 31, 40-189 Katowice, PolandAbstract This article presents GuideR, a user-guided rule induction algorithm, which overcomes the largest limitation of the existing methods---the lack of the possibility to introduce user's preferences or domain knowledge to the rule learning process. Automatic selection of attributes and attribute ranges often leads to the situation in which resulting rules do not contain interesting information. We propose an induction algorithm which takes into account user's requirements. Our method uses the sequential covering approach and is suitable for classification, regression, and survival analysis problems. The effectiveness of the algorithm in all these tasks has been verified experimentally, confirming guided rule induction to be a powerful data analysis tool. Introduction Sequential covering rule induction algorithms can be used for both, predictive and descriptive purposes [1, 2, 3, 4]. In spite of the development of increasingly sophisticated versions of those algorithms [5, 6], the main principle remains unchanged and involves two phases: rule growing and rule pruning. In the latter, some of these conditions are removed. In comparison to other machine learning methods, rule sets obtained by sequential covering algorithm, also known as separate-and-conquer strategy (SnC), are characterized by good predictive as well as descriptive capabilities. Taking into consideration only the former, superior results can often be obtained using other methods, e.g. However, data models obtained this way are much less comprehensible than rule sets. In the case of rule learning for descriptive purposes, the algorithms of association rule induction [12, 13, 14] or subgroup discovery [15, 6], are applied. The former leads to a very large number of rules which must then be limited by filtering according to rule interestingness measures [16, 17, 18]. Nevertheless, rule sets obtained by subgroup discovery are characterized by worse predictive abilities than those generated by the standard sequential covering approach. Therefore, if creating a prediction system with comprehensible data model is the main objective, the application of sequential covering rule induction algorithms provides the most sensible solution.

This blog post, the second in a series of 6 posts exploring OptiML, the new feature for automatic model optimization on BigML, focuses on a real-world use case within the healthcare industry: medical appointment "no shows". We will demonstrate how OptiML uses Bayesian parameter optimization to search for the the best performing model for your data. The status of the search is continually updated in the BigML Dashboard and the process yields a list of models ranked by performance, which enables further exploration, evaluation, and prediction tasks. With regards to healthcare expenses, "no show" appointments represent a major expense, estimated to cost hospitals over $150 billion per year. A "no show" is when all the necessary information for a medical appointment has been delivered, yet the patient fails to arrive at the scheduled appointment.

Machine learning (ML) has become a core component of many real-world applications and training data is a key factor that drives current progress. This huge success has led Internet companies to deploy machine learning as a service (MLaaS). Recently, the first membership inference attack has shown that extraction of information on the training set is possible in such MLaaS settings, which has severe security and privacy implications. However, the early demonstrations of the feasibility of such attacks have many assumptions on the adversary such as using multiple so-called shadow models, knowledge of the target model structure and having a dataset from the same distribution as the target model's training data. We relax all 3 key assumptions, thereby showing that such attacks are very broadly applicable at low cost and thereby pose a more severe risk than previously thought. We present the most comprehensive study so far on this emerging and developing threat using eight diverse datasets which show the viability of the proposed attacks across domains. In addition, we propose the first effective defense mechanisms against such broader class of membership inference attacks that maintain a high level of utility of the ML model.