We review common methods of solving for multi-class from binary and generalize them to a common framework. Since conditional probabilties are useful both for quantifying the accuracy of an estimate and for calibration purposes, these are a required part of the solution. There is some indication that the best solution for multi-class classification is dependent on the particular dataset. As such, we are particularly interested in data-driven solution design, whether based on a priori considerations or empirical examination of the data. Numerical results indicate that while a one-size-fits-all solution consisting of one-versus-one is appropriate for most datasets, a minority will benefit from a more customized approach. The techniques discussed in this paper allow for a large variety of multi-class configurations and solution methods to be explored so as to optimize classification accuracy, accuracy of conditional probabilities and speed.

We investigate a Deep Learning based system for malware detection. In the investigation, we experiment with different combination of Deep Learning architectures including Auto-Encoders, and Deep Neural Networks with varying layers over Malicia malware dataset on which earlier studies have obtained an accuracy of (98%) with an acceptable False Positive Rates (1.07%). But these results were done using extensive man-made custom domain features and investing corresponding feature engineering and design efforts. In our proposed approach, besides improving the previous best results (99.21% accuracy and a False Positive Rate of 0.19%) indicates that Deep Learning based systems could deliver an effective defense against malware. Since it is good in automatically extracting higher conceptual features from the data, Deep Learning based systems could provide an effective, general and scalable mechanism for detection of existing and unknown malware.

This blog post was created in partnership with André Burrell who is the Banking & Capital Markets Strategy Leader on the Worldwide Industry team at Microsoft. In our last blog post Anti-money laundering – Microsoft Azure helping banks reduce false positives, we alluded to Microsoft's high-level approach to a solution--which automates the end-to-end handling of anti-money laundering (AML) detection and management. Due to the growing number of fines issued, there is now an increased drive to hold compliance officers, senior executives, and board members personally liable for failing to have an adequate AML program and transaction monitoring system (TMS). Any alert generated and not closed by the TMS must be reviewed by a human. Current technologies cannot assess a transaction in context.

Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to compare them with each other and also to answer whether they are at all useful, or a learning algorithm could do a better job without them. For this purpose, many popular screening methods are partnered in this paper with three regression learners and five classification learners and evaluated on ten real datasets to obtain accuracy criteria such as R-square and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The obtained results are compared through curve plots and comparison tables in order to find out whether screening methods help improve the performance of learning algorithms and how they fare with each other. Our findings revealed that the screening methods were only useful in one regression and three classification datasets out of the ten datasets evaluated.

Abstract Machine understanding of questions is tightly related to recognition of articulation in the context of the computational capabilities of an underlying processing algorithm. In this paper a mathematical model to capture and distinguish the latent structure in the articulation of questions is presented. We propose an objective-driven approach to represent this latent structure and show that such an approach is beneficial when examples of complementary objectives are not available. We show that the latent structure can be represented as a system that maximizes a cost function related to the underlying objective. Further, we show that the optimization formulation can be approximated to building a memory of patterns represented as a trained neural auto-encoder. Experimental evaluation using many clusters of questions, each related to an objective, shows 80% recognition accuracy and negligible false positive across these clusters of questions. We then extend the same memory to a related task where the goal is to iteratively refine a dataset of questions based on the latent articulation. We also demonstrate a refinement scheme called K-fingerprints, that achieves nearly 100% recognition with negligible false positive across the different clusters of questions.

Regularized regression problems are ubiquitous in statistical modeling, signal processing, and machine learning. Sparse regression in particular has been instrumental in scientific model discovery, including compressed sensing applications, variable selection, and high-dimensional analysis. We propose a broad framework for sparse relaxed regularized regression, called SR3. The key idea is to solve a relaxation of the regularized problem, which has three advantages over the state-of-the-art: (1) solutions of the relaxed problem are superior with respect to errors, false positives, and conditioning, (2) relaxation allows extremely fast algorithms for both convex and nonconvex formulations, and (3) the methods apply to composite regularizers such as total variation (TV) and its nonconvex variants. We demonstrate the advantages of SR3 (computational efficiency, higher accuracy, faster convergence rates, greater flexibility) across a range of regularized regression problems with synthetic and real data, including applications in compressed sensing, LASSO, matrix completion, TV regularization, and group sparsity. To promote reproducible research, we also provide a companion Matlab package that implements these examples.

Time series classification has received great attention over the past decade with a wide range of methods focusing on predictive performance by exploiting various types of temporal features. Nonetheless, little emphasis has been placed on interpretability and explainability. In this paper, we formulate the novel problem of explainable time series tweaking, where, given a time series and an opaque classifier that provides a particular classification decision for the time series, we want to find the minimum number of changes to be performed to the given time series so that the classifier changes its decision to another class. We show that the problem is NP-hard, and focus on two instantiations of the problem, which we refer to as reversible and irreversible time series tweaking. The classifier under investigation is the random shapelet forest classifier. Moreover, we propose two algorithmic solutions for the two problems along with simple optimizations, as well as a baseline solution using the nearest neighbor classifier. An extensive experimental evaluation on a variety of real datasets demonstrates the usefulness and effectiveness of our problem formulation and solutions.

Today's Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are large, complex, and affixed with networked sensors and actuators that are targets for cyber-attacks. Conventional detection techniques are unable to deal with the increasingly dynamic and complex nature of the CPSs. On the other hand, the networked sensors and actuators generate large amounts of data streams that can be continuously monitored for intrusion events. Unsupervised machine learning techniques can be used to model the system behaviour and classify deviant behaviours as possible attacks. In this work, we proposed a novel Generative Adversarial Networks-based Anomaly Detection (GAN-AD) method for such complex networked CPSs. We used LSTM-RNN in our GAN to capture the distribution of the multivariate time series of the sensors and actuators under normal working conditions of a CPS. Instead of treating each sensor's and actuator's time series independently, we model the time series of multiple sensors and actuators in the CPS concurrently to take into account of potential latent interactions between them. To exploit both the generator and the discriminator of our GAN, we deployed the GAN-trained discriminator together with the residuals between generator-reconstructed data and the actual samples to detect possible anomalies in the complex CPS. We used our GAN-AD to distinguish abnormal attacked situations from normal working conditions for a complex six-stage Secure Water Treatment (SWaT) system. Experimental results showed that the proposed strategy is effective in identifying anomalies caused by various attacks with high detection rate and low false positive rate as compared to existing methods.

In the real world, a learning system could receive an input that looks nothing like anything it has seen during training, and this can lead to unpredictable behaviour. We thus need to know whether any given input belongs to the population distribution of the training data to prevent unpredictable behaviour in deployed systems. A recent surge of interest on this problem has led to the development of sophisticated techniques in the deep learning literature. However, due to the absence of a standardized problem formulation or an exhaustive evaluation, it is not evident if we can rely on these methods in practice. What makes this problem different from a typical supervised learning setting is that we cannot model the diversity of out-of-distribution samples in practice. The distribution of outliers used in training may not be the same as the distribution of outliers encountered in the application. Therefore, classical approaches that learn inliers vs. outliers with only two datasets can yield optimistic results. We introduce OD-test, a three-dataset evaluation scheme as a practical and more reliable strategy to assess progress on this problem. The OD-test benchmark provides a straightforward means of comparison for methods that address the out-of-distribution sample detection problem. We present an exhaustive evaluation of a broad set of methods from related areas on image classification tasks. Furthermore, we show that for realistic applications of high-dimensional images, the existing methods have low accuracy. Our analysis reveals areas of strength and weakness of each method.

Guidelines for the management of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) recommend the use of risk stratification models to identify patients most likely to benefit from cholesterol-lowering and other therapies. These models have differential performance across race and gender groups with inconsistent behavior across studies, potentially resulting in an inequitable distribution of beneficial therapy. In this work, we leverage adversarial learning and a large observational cohort extracted from electronic health records (EHRs) to develop a "fair" ASCVD risk prediction model with reduced variability in error rates across groups. We empirically demonstrate that our approach is capable of aligning the distribution of risk predictions conditioned on the outcome across several groups simultaneously for models built from high-dimensional EHR data. We also discuss the relevance of these results in the context of the empirical trade-off between fairness and model performance.