Product reviews and ratings on e-commerce websites provide customers with detailed insights about various aspects of the product such as quality, usefulness, etc. Since they influence customers' buying decisions, product reviews have become a fertile ground for abuse by sellers (colluding with reviewers) to promote their own products or to tarnish the reputation of competitor's products. In this paper, our focus is on detecting such abusive entities (both sellers and reviewers) by applying tensor decomposition on the product reviews data. While tensor decomposition is mostly unsupervised, we formulate our problem as a semi-supervised binary multi-target tensor decomposition, to take advantage of currently known abusive entities. We empirically show that our multi-target semi-supervised model achieves higher precision and recall in detecting abusive entities as compared to unsupervised techniques. Finally, we show that our proposed stochastic partial natural gradient inference for our model empirically achieves faster convergence than stochastic gradient and Online-EM with sufficient statistics.

Despite having excellent performances for a wide variety of tasks, modern neural networks are unable to provide a reliable confidence value allowing to detect misclassifications. This limitation is at the heart of what is known as an adversarial example, where the network provides a wrong prediction associated with a strong confidence to a slightly modified image. Moreover, this overconfidence issue has also been observed for regular errors and out-of-distribution data. We tackle this problem by what we call introspection, i.e. using the information provided by the logits of an already pretrained neural network. We show that by training a simple 3-layers neural network on top of the logit activations, we are able to detect misclassifications at a competitive level.

Building on a recent framework for distributionally robust optimization in machine learning, we develop a similar framework for estimation of the inverse covariance matrix for multivariate data. We provide a novel notion of a Wasserstein ambiguity set specifically tailored to this estimation problem, from which we obtain a representation for a tractable class of regularized estimators. Special cases include penalized likelihood estimators for Gaussian data, specifically the graphical lasso estimator. As a consequence of this formulation, a natural relationship arises between the radius of the Wasserstein ambiguity set and the regularization parameter in the estimation problem. Using this relationship, one can directly control the level of robustness of the estimation procedure by specifying a desired level of confidence with which the ambiguity set contains a distribution with the true population covariance. Furthermore, a unique feature of our formulation is that the radius can be expressed in closed-form as a function of the ordinary sample covariance matrix. Taking advantage of this finding, we develop a simple algorithm to determine a regularization parameter for graphical lasso, using only the bootstrapped sample covariance matrices, meaning that computationally expensive repeated evaluation of the graphical lasso algorithm is not necessary. Alternatively, the distributionally robust formulation can also quantify the robustness of the corresponding estimator if one uses an off-the-shelf method such as cross-validation. Finally, we numerically study the obtained regularization criterion and analyze the robustness of other automated tuning procedures used in practice.

The quantity of labelled data is small due to privacy concerns and the cost of data acquisition and labelling by a medical expert. Furthermore, it is quite common that collected data are unbalanced and getting enough data to personalize models for individuals is very expensive or even infeasible. This paper addresses these problems by (1) designing a recurrent Generative Adversarial Network to generate realistic synthetic data and to augment the original dataset, (2) enabling the generation of balanced datasets based on heavily unbalanced dataset, and (3) to control the data generation in such a way that the generated data resembles data from specific individuals. We apply these solutions for sleep apnea detection and study in the evaluation the performance of four well-known techniques, i.e., K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machine.

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through $k$-fold partitioning or leave-$p$-out subsampling. We show that the marginal likelihood is formally equivalent to exhaustive leave-$p$-out cross-validation averaged over all values of $p$ and all held-out test sets when using the log posterior predictive probability as the scoring rule. Moreover, the log posterior predictive is the only coherent scoring rule under data exchangeability. This offers new insight into the marginal likelihood and cross-validation and highlights the potential sensitivity of the marginal likelihood to the setting of the prior. We suggest an alternative approach using aggregate cross-validation following a preparatory training phase. Our work has connections to prequential analysis and intrinsic Bayes factors but is motivated through a different course.

Over the years, there has been growing interest in using Machine Learning techniques for biomedical data processing. When tackling these tasks, one needs to bear in mind that biomedical data depends on a variety of characteristics, such as demographic aspects (age, gender, etc) or the acquisition technology, which might be unrelated with the target of the analysis. In supervised tasks, failing to match the ground truth targets with respect to such characteristics, called confounders, may lead to very misleading estimates of the predictive performance. Many strategies have been proposed to handle confounders, ranging from data selection, to normalization techniques, up to the use of training algorithm for learning with imbalanced data. However, all these solutions require the confounders to be known a priori. To this aim, we introduce a novel index that is able to measure the confounding effect of a data attribute in a bias-agnostic way. This index can be used to quantitatively compare the confounding effects of different variables and to inform correction methods such as normalization procedures or ad-hoc-prepared learning algorithms. The effectiveness of this index is validated on both simulated data and real-world neuroimaging data.

While semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms provide an efficient way to make use of both labelled and unlabelled data, they generally struggle when the number of annotated samples is very small. In this work, we consider the problem of SSL multi-class classification with very few labelled instances. We introduce two key ideas. The first is a simple but effective one: we leverage the power of transfer learning among different tasks and self-supervision to initialize a good representation of the data without making use of any label. The second idea is a new algorithm for SSL that can exploit well such a pre-trained representation. The algorithm works by alternating two phases, one fitting the labelled points and one fitting the unlabelled ones, with carefully-controlled information flow between them. The benefits are greatly reducing overfitting of the labelled data and avoiding issue with balancing labelled and unlabelled losses during training. We show empirically that this method can successfully train competitive models with as few as 10 labelled data points per class. More in general, we show that the idea of bootstrapping features using self-supervised learning always improves SSL on standard benchmarks. We show that our algorithm works increasingly well compared to other methods when refining from other tasks or datasets.

When concept drift is detected during classification in a data stream, a common remedy is to retrain a framework's classifier. However, this loses useful information if the classifier has learnt the current concept well, and this concept will recur again in the future. Some frameworks retain and reuse classifiers, but it can be time-consuming to select an appropriate classifier to reuse. These frameworks rarely match the accuracy of state-of-the-art ensemble approaches. For many data stream tasks, speed is important: fast, accurate frameworks are needed for time-dependent applications. We propose the Enhanced Concept Profiling Framework (ECPF), which aims to recognise recurring concepts and reuse a classifier trained previously, enabling accurate classification immediately following a drift. The novelty of ECPF is in how it uses similarity of classifications on new data, between a new classifier and existing classifiers, to quickly identify the best classifier to reuse. It always trains both a new classifier and a reused classifier, and retains the more accurate classifier when concept drift occurs. Finally, it creates a copy of reused classifiers, so a classifier well-suited for a recurring concept will not be impacted by being trained on a different concept. In our experiments, ECPF classifies significantly more accurately than a state-of-the-art classifier reuse framework (Diversity Pool) and a state-of-the-art ensemble technique (Adaptive Random Forest) on synthetic datasets with recurring concepts. It classifies real-world datasets five times faster than Diversity Pool, and six times faster than Adaptive Random Forest and is not significantly less accurate than either.

Road accidents are an important issue of our modern societies, responsible for millions of deaths and injuries every year in the world. In Quebec only, road accidents are responsible for hundreds of deaths and tens of thousands of injuries. In this paper, we show how one can leverage open datasets of a city like Montreal, Canada, to create high-resolution accident prediction models, using state-of-the-art big data analytics. Compared to other studies in road accident prediction, we have a much higher prediction resolution, i.e., our models predict the occurrence of an accident within an hour, on road segments defined by intersections. Such models could be used in the context of road accident prevention, but also to identify key factors that can lead to a road accident, and consequently, help elaborate new policies. We tested various machine learning methods to deal with the severe class imbalance inherent to accident prediction problems. In particular, we implemented the Balanced Random Forest algorithm, a variant of the Random Forest machine learning algorithm in Apache Spark. Experimental results show that 85% of road vehicle collisions are detected by our model with a false positive rate of 13%. The examples identified as positive are likely to correspond to high-risk situations. In addition, we identify the most important predictors of vehicle collisions for the area of Montreal: the count of accidents on the same road segment during previous years, the temperature, the day of the year, the hour and the visibility.

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of using an attention-based neural network for predicting the risk of readmission within 30 days of discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) based on longitudinal electronic medical record (EMR) data and to leverage the interpretability of the model to describe patients-at-risk. Methods: A "time-aware attention" model was trained using publicly available EMR data (MIMIC-III) associated with 45,298 ICU stays for 33,150 patients. The analysed EMR data included static (patient demographics) and timestamped variables (diagnoses, procedures, medications, and vital signs). Bayesian inference was used to compute the posterior distribution of network weights. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model was compared with several baseline models and evaluated based on average precision, AUROC, and F1-Score. Odds ratios (ORs) associated with an increased risk of readmission were computed for static variables. Diagnoses, procedures, and medications were ranked according to the associated risk of readmission. The model was also used to generate reports with predicted risk (and associated uncertainty) justified by specific diagnoses, procedures, medications, and vital signs. Results: A Bayesian ensemble of 10 time-aware attention models led to the highest predictive accuracy (average precision: 0.282, AUROC: 0.738, F1-Score: 0.353). Male gender, number of recent admissions, age, admission location, insurance type, and ethnicity were all associated with risk of readmission. A longer length of stay in the ICU was found to reduce the risk of readmission (OR: 0.909, 95% credible interval: 0.902, 0.916). Groups of patients at risk included those requiring cardiovascular or ventilatory support, those with poor nutritional state, and those for whom standard medical care was not suitable, e.g. due to contraindications to surgery or medications.