Predicting firm's failure is one of the most interesting subjects for investors and decision makers. In this paper, a bankruptcy prediction model is proposed based on Artificial Neural networks (ANN). Taking into consideration that the choice of v ariables to discriminate between bankrupt and non - bankrupt firms influences significantly the model's accuracy and considering the problem of local minima, we propose a hybrid ANN based on variables selection techniques. Moreover, we evolve the convergence of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) by proposing a training algorithm based on an improved PSO and Simulated Annealing. A comparative performance study is reported, and the proposed hybrid model shows a high performance and convergence in the context of missing data.

Binary relation extraction methods have been widely studied in recent years. However, few methods have been developed for higher n-ary relation extraction. One limiting factor is the effort required to generate training data. For binary relations, one only has to provide a few dozen pairs of entities per relation, as training data. For ternary relations (n=3), each training instance is a triplet of entities, placing a greater cognitive load on people. For example, many people know that Google acquired Youtube but not the dollar amount or the date of the acquisition and many people know that Hillary Clinton is married to Bill Clinton by not the location or date of their wedding. This makes higher n-nary training data generation a time consuming exercise in searching the Web. We present a resource for training ternary relation extractors. This was generated using a minimally supervised yet effective approach. We present statistics on the size and the quality of the dataset.

Stress research is a rapidly emerging area in thefield of electroencephalography (EEG) based signal processing.The use of EEG as an objective measure for cost effective andpersonalized stress management becomes important in particularsituations such as the non-availability of mental health facilities.In this study, long-term stress is classified using baseline EEGsignal recordings. The labelling for the stress and control groupsis performed using two methods (i) the perceived stress scalescore and (ii) expert evaluation. The frequency domain featuresare extracted from five-channel EEG recordings in addition tothe frontal and temporal alpha and beta asymmetries. The alphaasymmetry is computed from four channels and used as a feature.Feature selection is also performed using a t-test to identifystatistically significant features for both stress and control groups.We found that support vector machine is best suited to classifylong-term human stress when used with alpha asymmetry asa feature. It is observed that expert evaluation based labellingmethod has improved the classification accuracy up to 85.20%.Based on these results, it is concluded that alpha asymmetry maybe used as a potential bio-marker for stress classification, when labels are assigned using expert evaluation.

Automated data-driven decision-making systems are ubiquitous across a wide spread of online as well as offline services. These systems, depend on sophisticated learning algorithms and available data, to optimize the service function for decision support assistance. However, there is a growing concern about the accountability and fairness of the employed models by the fact that often the available historic data is intrinsically discriminatory, i.e., the proportion of members sharing one or more sensitive attributes is higher than the proportion in the population as a whole when receiving positive classification, which leads to a lack of fairness in decision support system. A number of fairness-aware learning methods have been proposed to handle this concern. However, these methods tackle fairness as a static problem and do not take the evolution of the underlying stream population into consideration. In this paper, we introduce a learning mechanism to design a fair classifier for online stream based decision-making. Our learning model, FAHT (Fairness-Aware Hoeffding Tree), is an extension of the well-known Hoeffding Tree algorithm for decision tree induction over streams, that also accounts for fairness. Our experiments show that our algorithm is able to deal with discrimination in streaming environments, while maintaining a moderate predictive performance over the stream.

What is Predictive Models Performance Evaluation and Why it is Impo...

Training data-driven approaches for complex industrial system health monitoring is challenging. When data on faulty conditions are rare or not available, the training has to be performed in a unsupervised manner. In addition, when the observation period, used for training, is kept short, to be able to monitor the system in its early life, the training data might not be representative of all the system normal operating conditions. In this paper, we propose five approaches to perform fault detection in such context. Two approaches rely on the data from the unit to be monitored only: the baseline is trained on the early life of the unit. An incremental learning procedure tries to learn new operating conditions as they arise. Three other approaches take advantage of data from other similar units within a fleet. In two cases, units are directly compared to each other with similarity measures, and the data from similar units are combined in the training set. We propose, in the third case, a new deep-learning methodology to perform, first, a feature alignment of different units with an Unsupervised Feature Alignment Network (UFAN). Then, features of both units are combined in the training set of the fault detection neural network. The approaches are tested on a fleet comprising 112 units, observed over one year of data. All approaches proposed here are an improvement to the baseline, trained with two months of data only. As units in the fleet are found to be very dissimilar, the new architecture UFAN, that aligns units in the feature space, is outperforming others.

The goal of this paper is to develop a machine learning based approach that utilizes phase space alone to separate the Gaia DR2 stars into two categories: those accreted onto the Milky Way from in situ stars that were born within the Galaxy. Traditional selection methods that have been used to identify accreted stars typically rely on full 3D velocity and/or metallicity information, which significantly reduces the number of classifiable stars. The approach advocated here is applicable to a much larger fraction of Gaia DR2. A method known as transfer learning is shown to be effective through extensive testing on a set of mock Gaia catalogs that are based on the FIRE cosmological zoom-in hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way-mass galaxies. The machine is first trained on simulated data using only 5D kinematics as inputs, and is then further trained on a cross-matched Gaia/RAVE data set, which improves sensitivity to properties of the real Milky Way. The result is a catalog that identifies ~650,000 accreted stars within Gaia DR2. This catalog can yield empirical insights into the merger history of the Milky Way, and could be used to infer properties of the dark matter distribution.

Falling in Parkinsonian syndromes (PS) is associated with postural instability and consists a common cause of disability among PS patients. Current posturographic practices record the body's center-of-pressure displacement (statokinesigram) while the patient stands on a force platform. Statokinesigrams, after appropriate signal processing, can offer numerous posturographic features, which however challenges the efforts for valid statistics via standard univariate approaches. In this work, we present the ts-AUC, a non-parametric multivariate two-sample test, which we employ to analyze statokinesigram differences among PS patients that are fallers (PSf) and non-fallers (PSNF). We included 123 PS patients who were classified into PSF or PSNF based on clinical assessment and underwent simple Romberg Test (eyes open/eyes closed). We analyzed posturographic features using both multiple testing with p-value adjustment and the ts-AUC. While the ts-AUC showed significant difference between groups (p-value = 0.01), multiple testing did not show any such difference. Interestingly, significant difference between the two groups was found only using the open-eyes protocol. PSF showed significantly increased antero-posterior movements as well as increased posturographic area, compared to PSNF. Our study demonstrates the superiority of the ts-AUC test compared to standard statistical tools in distinguishing PSF and PSNF in the multidimensional feature space. This result highlights more generally the fact that machine learning-based statistical tests can be seen as a natural extension of classical statistical approaches and should be considered, especially when dealing with multifactorial assessments.

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to biases implicitly embedded in observational data in electronic health records. To address this problem in the context of clinical risk prediction models, we develop an augmented counterfactual fairness criteria to extend the group fairness criteria of equalized odds to an individual level. We do so by requiring that the same prediction be made for a patient, and a counterfactual patient resulting from changing a sensitive attribute, if the factual and counterfactual outcomes do not differ. We investigate the extent to which the augmented counterfactual fairness criteria may be applied to develop fair models for prolonged inpatient length of stay and mortality with observational electronic health records data. As the fairness criteria is ill-defined without knowledge of the data generating process, we use a variational autoencoder to perform counterfactual inference in the context of an assumed causal graph. While our technique provides a means to trade off maintenance of fairness with reduction in predictive performance in the context of a learned generative model, further work is needed to assess the generality of this approach.

Program comprehension is a dominant process in software development and maintenance. Experts are considered to comprehend the source code efficiently by directing their gaze, or attention, to important components in it. However, reflecting importance of components is still a remaining issue in gaze behavior analysis for source code comprehension. Here we show a conceptual framework to compare the quantified importance of source code components with gaze behavior of programmers. We use "attention" in attention models (e.g., code2vec) as the importance indices for source code components and evaluate programmers' gaze locations based on the quantified importance. In this report, we introduce the idea of our gaze behavior analysis using the attention map, and the results of a preliminary experiment.