Online Peer to Peer Lending (P2PL) systems connect lenders and borrowers directly, thereby making it convenient to borrow and lend money without intermediaries such as banks. Many recommendation systems have been developed for lenders to achieve higher interest rates and avoid defaulting loans. However, there has not been much research in developing recommendation systems to help borrowers make wise decisions. On P2PL platforms, borrowers can either apply for bidding loans, where the interest rate is determined by lenders bidding on a loan or traditional loans where the P2PL platform determines the interest rate. Different borrower grades -- determining the credit worthiness of borrowers get different interest rates via these two mechanisms. Hence, it is essential to determine which type of loans borrowers should apply for. In this paper, we build a recommendation system that recommends to any new borrower the type of loan they should apply for. Using our recommendation system, any borrower can achieve lowered interest rates with a higher likelihood of getting funded.

Quantile regression is a tool for learning conditional distributions. In this paper we study quantile regression in the setting where a protected attribute is unavailable when fitting the model. This can lead to "unfair'' quantile estimators for which the effective quantiles are very different for the subpopulations defined by the protected attribute. We propose a procedure for adjusting the estimator on a heldout sample where the protected attribute is available. The main result of the paper is an empirical process analysis showing that the adjustment leads to a fair estimator for which the target quantiles are brought into balance, in a statistical sense that we call $\sqrt{n}$-fairness. We illustrate the ideas and adjustment procedure on a dataset of 200,000 live births, where the objective is to characterize the dependence of the birth weights of the babies on demographic attributes of the birth mother; the protected attribute is the mother's race.

Use of an autoencoder (AE) as a normal model is a state-of-the-art technique for unsupervised-anomaly detection in sounds (ADS). The AE is trained to minimize the sample mean of the anomaly score of normal sounds in a mini-batch. One problem with this approach is that the anomaly score of rare-normal sounds becomes higher than that of frequent-normal sounds, because the sample mean is strongly affected by frequent-normal samples, resulting in preferentially decreasing the anomaly score of frequent-normal samples. To decrease anomaly scores for both frequent- and rare-normal sounds, we propose batch uniformization, a training method for unsupervised-ADS for minimizing a weighted average of the anomaly score on each sample in a mini-batch. We used the reciprocal of the probabilistic density of each sample as the weight, more intuitively, a large weight is given for rare-normal sounds. Such a weight works to give a constant anomaly score for both frequent- and rare-normal sounds. Since the probabilistic density is unknown, we estimate it by using the kernel density estimation on each training mini-batch. Verification- and objective-experiments show that the proposed batch uniformization improves the performance of unsupervised-ADS.

Upcoming synoptic surveys are set to generate an unprecedented amount of data. This requires an automatic framework that can quickly and efficiently provide classification labels for several new object classification challenges. Using data describing 11 types of variable stars from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Surveys (CRTS), we illustrate how to capture the most important information from computed features and describe detailed methods of how to robustly use Information Theory for feature selection and evaluation. We apply three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and demonstrate how to optimize these classifiers via cross-validation techniques. For the CRTS dataset, we find that the Random Forest (RF) classifier performs best in terms of balanced-accuracy and geometric means. We demonstrate substantially improved classification results by converting the multi-class problem into a binary classification task, achieving a balanced-accuracy rate of $\sim$99 per cent for the classification of ${\delta}$-Scuti and Anomalous Cepheids (ACEP). Additionally, we describe how classification performance can be improved via converting a 'flat-multi-class' problem into a hierarchical taxonomy. We develop a new hierarchical structure and propose a new set of classification features, enabling the accurate identification of subtypes of cepheids, RR Lyrae and eclipsing binary stars in CRTS data.

The assumption of positivity in causal inference (also known as common support and co-variate overlap) is necessary to obtain valid causal estimates. Therefore, confirming it holds in a given dataset is an important first step of any causal analysis. Most common methods to date are insufficient for discovering non-positivity, as they do not scale for modern high-dimensional covariate spaces, or they cannot pinpoint the subpopulation violating positivity. To overcome these issues, we suggest to harness decision trees for detecting violations. By dividing the covariate space into mutually exclusive regions, each with maximized homogeneity of treatment groups, decision trees can be used to automatically detect subspaces violating positivity. By augmenting the method with an additional random forest model, we can quantify the robustness of the violation within each subspace. This solution is scalable and provides an interpretable characterization of the subspaces in which violations occur. We provide a visualization of the stratification rules that define each subpopulation, combined with the severity of positivity violation within it. We also provide an interactive version of the visualization that allows a deeper dive into the properties of each subspace.

We develop tools for utilizing correspondence experiments to detect illegal discrimination by individual employers. Employers violate US employment law if their propensity to contact applicants depends on protected characteristics such as race or sex. We establish identification of higher moments of the causal effects of protected characteristics on callback rates as a function of the number of fictitious applications sent to each job ad. These moments are used to bound the fraction of jobs that illegally discriminate. Applying our results to three experimental datasets, we find evidence of significant employer heterogeneity in discriminatory behavior, with the standard deviation of gaps in job-specific callback probabilities across protected groups averaging roughly twice the mean gap. In a recent experiment manipulating racially distinctive names, we estimate that at least 85% of jobs that contact both of two white applications and neither of two black applications are engaged in illegal discrimination. To assess the tradeoff between type I and II errors presented by these patterns, we consider the performance of a series of decision rules for investigating suspicious callback behavior under a simple two-type model that rationalizes the experimental data. Though, in our preferred specification, only 17% of employers are estimated to discriminate on the basis of race, we find that an experiment sending 10 applications to each job would enable accurate detection of 7-10% of discriminators while falsely accusing fewer than 0.2% of non-discriminators. A minimax decision rule acknowledging partial identification of the joint distribution of callback rates yields higher error rates but more investigations than our baseline two-type model. Our results suggest illegal labor market discrimination can be reliably monitored with relatively small modifications to existing audit designs.

Traffic sign recognition is an important component of many advanced driving assistance systems, and it is required for full autonomous driving. Computational performance is usually the bottleneck in using large scale neural networks for this purpose. SqueezeNet is a good candidate for efficient image classification of traffic signs, but in our experiments it does not reach high accuracy, and we believe this is due to lack of data, requiring data augmentation. Generative adversarial networks can learn the high dimensional distribution of empirical data, allowing the generation of new data points. In this paper we apply pix2pix GANs architecture to generate new traffic sign images and evaluate the use of these images in data augmentation. We were motivated to use pix2pix to translate symbolic sign images to real ones due to the mode collapse in Conditional GANs. Through our experiments we found that data augmentation using GAN can increase classification accuracy for circular traffic signs from 92.1% to 94.0%, and for triangular traffic signs from 93.8% to 95.3%, producing an overall improvement of 2%. However some traditional augmentation techniques can outperform GAN data augmentation, for example contrast variation in circular traffic signs (95.5%) and displacement on triangular traffic signs (96.7 %). Our negative results shows that while GANs can be naively used for data augmentation, they are not always the best choice, depending on the problem and variability in the data.

The anomaly detection of time series is a hotspot of time series data mining. The own characteristics of different anomaly detectors determine the abnormal data that they are good at. There is no detector can be optimizing in all types of anomalies. Moreover, it still has difficulties in industrial production due to problems such as a single detector can't be optimized at different time windows of the same time series. This paper proposes an adaptive model based on time series characteristics and selecting appropriate detector and run-time parameters for anomaly detection, which is called ATSDLN(Adaptive Time Series Detector Learning Network). We take the time series as the input of the model, and learn the time series representation through FCN. In order to realize the adaptive selection of detectors and run-time parameters according to the input time series, the outputs of FCN are the inputs of two sub-networks: the detector selection network and the run-time parameters selection network. In addition, the way that the variable layer width design of the parameter selection sub-network and the introduction of transfer learning make the model be with more expandability. Through experiments, it is found that ATSDLN can select appropriate anomaly detector and run-time parameters, and have strong expandability, which can quickly transfer. We investigate the performance of ATSDLN in public data sets, our methods outperform other methods in most cases with higher effect and better adaptation. We also show experimental results on public data sets to demonstrate how model structure and transfer learning affect the effectiveness.

This paper presents approaches to determine a network based pricing for 3D printing services in the context of a two-sided manufacturing-as-a-service marketplace. The intent is to provide cost analytics to enable service bureaus to better compete in the market by moving away from setting ad-hoc and subjective prices. A data mining approach with machine learning methods is used to estimate a price range based on the profile characteristics of 3D printing service suppliers. The model considers factors such as supplier experience, supplier capabilities, customer reviews and ratings from past orders, and scale of operations among others to estimate a price range for suppliers' services. Data was gathered from existing marketplace websites, which was then used to train and test the model. The model demonstrates an accuracy of 65% for US based suppliers and 59% for Europe based suppliers to classify a supplier's 3D Printer listing in one of the seven price categories. The improvement over baseline accuracy of 25% demonstrates that machine learning based methods are promising for network based pricing in manufacturing marketplaces. Conventional methodologies for pricing services through activity based costing are inefficient in strategically pricing 3D printing service offering in a connected marketplace. As opposed to arbitrarily determining prices, this work proposes an approach to determine prices through data mining methods to estimate competitive prices. Such tools can be built into online marketplaces to help independent service bureaus to determine service price rates.

Epidemiologists use a variety of statistical algorithms for the early detection of outbreaks. The practical usefulness of such methods highly depends on the trade-off between the detection rate of outbreaks and the chances of raising a false alarm. Recent research has shown that the use of machine learning for the fusion of multiple statistical algorithms improves outbreak detection. Instead of relying only on the binary output (alarm or no alarm) of the statistical algorithms, we propose to make use of their p-values for training a fusion classifier. In addition, we also show that adding additional features and adapting the labeling of an epidemic period may further improve performance. For comparison and evaluation, a new measure is introduced which captures the performance of an outbreak detection method with respect to a low rate of false alarms more precisely than previous works. Our results on synthetic data show that it is challenging to improve the performance with a trainable fusion method based on machine learning. In particular, the use of a fusion classifier that is only based on binary outputs of the statistical surveillance methods can make the overall performance worse than directly using the underlying algorithms. However, the use of p-values and additional information for the learning is promising, enabling to identify more valuable patterns to detect outbreaks.