Financial institutions that extend credit face the dual tasks of evaluating the credit risk associated with each loan application and determining a threshold that defines the level of risk they are willing to take on. The evaluation of credit risk is a common application of machine learning (ML) classification models. The determination of a classification threshold, though, is often treated as a secondary concern and set in an ad hoc, unprincipled manner. As a result, institutions may be creating underperforming portfolios and leaving risk-adjusted return on the table. In this blog post, we describe how to use Amazon SageMaker automatic model tuning to determine the classification threshold that maximizes the portfolio value of a lender choosing a subset of borrowers to lend to. More generally, we describe a method of choosing an optimal threshold, or set of thresholds, in a classification setting. The method we describe doesn't rely on rules of thumb or generic metrics. It is a systematic and principled method that relies on a business success metric specific to the problem at hand. The method is based upon utility theory and the idea that a rational individual makes decisions so as to maximize her expected utility, or subjective value. In this post, we assume that the lender is attempting to maximize the expected dollar value of her portfolio by choosing a classification threshold that divides loan applications into two groups: those she accepts and lends to, and those she rejects. In other words, the lender is searching over the space of potential threshold values to find the threshold that results in the highest value for the function that describes her portfolio value.

Work towards building a strong knowledge based career foundation in the leading analytics platform of Machine Learning by availing our Analytics Path top-notch Machine Learning Training In Hyderabad. Our experts trainers will be working towards transforming our students into complete career ready professionals. By the time of course completion, our students will become well capable to handling all the real-world complex challenges of the Machine Learning domain. Students will be gaining expertise towards working on the advanced concepts like Support Vector Machines, Naive Bayes Classification, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree Algorithms, K-Means Clustering and more. Machine Learning is the most challenging & innovative platform in the present days analytics domain.

Random forests remain among the most popular off-the-shelf supervised machine learning tools with a well-established track record of predictive accuracy in both regression and classification settings. Despite their empirical success as well as a bevy of recent work investigating their statistical properties, a full and satisfying explanation for their success has yet to be put forth. Here we aim to take a step forward in this direction by demonstrating that the additional randomness injected into individual trees serves as a form of implicit regularization, making random forests an ideal model in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) settings. Specifically, from a model-complexity perspective, we show that the mtry parameter in random forests serves much the same purpose as the shrinkage penalty in explicitly regularized regression procedures like lasso and ridge regression. To highlight this point, we design a randomized linear-model-based forward selection procedure intended as an analogue to tree-based random forests and demonstrate its surprisingly strong empirical performance. Numerous demonstrations on both real and synthetic data are provided.

Constructing gene regulatory networks is a critical step in revealing disease mechanisms from transcriptomic data. In this work, we present NO-BEARS, a novel algorithm for estimating gene regulatory networks. The NO-BEARS algorithm is built on the basis of the NOTEARS algorithm with two improvements. First, we propose a new constraint and its fast approximation to reduce the computational cost of the NO-TEARS algorithm. Next, we introduce a polynomial regression loss to handle non-linearity in gene expressions. Our implementation utilizes modern GPU computation that can decrease the time of hours-long CPU computation to seconds. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate improved performance, both in processing time and accuracy, on inferring gene regulatory networks from gene expression data.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of $\textit{confidence}$ typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) has emerged as an approach for characterizing, identifying, and learning with noisy labels in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Here, we generalize CL, building on the assumption of a classification noise process, to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This generalized CL, open-sourced as $\texttt{cleanlab}$, is provably consistent under reasonable conditions, and experimentally performant on ImageNet and CIFAR, outperforming recent approaches, e.g. MentorNet, by $30\%$ or more, when label noise is non-uniform. $\texttt{cleanlab}$ also quantifies ontological class overlap, and can increase model accuracy (e.g. ResNet) by providing clean data for training.

Despite the exploding interest in graph neural networks there has been little effort to verify and improve their robustness. This is even more alarming given recent findings showing that they are extremely vulnerable to adversarial attacks on both the graph structure and the node attributes. We propose the first method for verifying certifiable (non-)robustness to graph perturbations for a general class of models that includes graph neural networks and label/feature propagation. By exploiting connections to PageRank and Markov decision processes our certificates can be efficiently (and under many threat models exactly) computed. Furthermore, we investigate robust training procedures that increase the number of certifiably robust nodes while maintaining or improving the clean predictive accuracy.

Current anti-money laundering solutions rely on techniques that generate excessive false positive rates which require burdensome manual reviews. Legacy money laundering solutions cannot keep pace with the increasingly sophisticated layering schemes, as well as growing compliance requirements from regulators. Can your bank/financial institution successfully navigate the growing regulatory demands? Is your bank equipped with the newest digital and AI based tools to stay ahead of the new global trends in money laundering?

The difficulty of the problem stems from the lack of reliable, quantitative and publicly available data. In this paper, we contribute to this endeavour by constructing an exit predictor model based on qualitative data, which blends the outcomes of three classifiers, namely, a Logistic Regression model, a Random Forest model, and a Support V ector Machine model. The output of the combined model is selected on the basis of the majority of the output classes of the component models. The models are trained using data extracted from the Thomson Reuters Eikon repository of 54697 US and European companies over the 1996-2011 time span. Experiments have been conducted for predicting whether the company eventually either gets acquired or goes public (IPO), against the complementary event that it remains private or goes bankrupt, in the considered time window. Our model achieves a 63% predictive accuracy, which is quite a valuable figure for Private Equity investors, who typically expect very high returns from successful investments.

We propose the Sobolev Independence Criterion (SIC), an interpretable dependency measure between a high dimensional random variable X and a response variable Y . SIC decomposes to the sum of feature importance scores and hence can be used for nonlinear feature selection. SIC can be seen as a gradient regularized Integral Probability Metric (IPM) between the joint distribution of the two random variables and the product of their marginals. We use sparsity inducing gradient penalties to promote input sparsity of the critic of the IPM. In the kernel version we show that SIC can be cast as a convex optimization problem by introducing auxiliary variables that play an important role in feature selection as they are normalized feature importance scores. We then present a neural version of SIC where the critic is parameterized as a homogeneous neural network, improving its representation power as well as its interpretability. We conduct experiments validating SIC for feature selection in synthetic and real-world experiments. We show that SIC enables reliable and interpretable discoveries, when used in conjunction with the holdout randomization test and knockoffs to control the False Discovery Rate. Code is available at http://github.com/ibm/sic.

The potential for learned models to amplify existing societal biases has been broadly recognized. Fairness-aware classifier constraints, which apply equality metrics of performance across subgroups defined on sensitive attributes such as race and gender, seek to rectify inequity but can yield non-uniform degradation in performance for skewed datasets. In certain domains, imbalanced degradation of performance can yield another form of unintentional bias. In the spirit of constructing fairness-aware algorithms as societal imperative, we explore an alternative: Pareto-Efficient Fairness (PEF). Theoretically, we prove that PEF identifies the operating point on the Pareto curve of subgroup performances closest to the fairness hyperplane, maximizing multiple subgroup accuracy. Empirically we demonstrate that PEF outperforms by achieving Pareto levels in accuracy for all subgroups compared to strict fairness constraints in several UCI datasets.