Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are the probabilistic model that combines the strengths of both neural network (NN) and stochastic processes. As a result, BNN can combat overfitting and perform well in applications where data is limited. Earthquake rupture study is such a problem where data is insufficient, and scientists have to rely on many trial and error numerical or physical models. Lack of resources and computational expenses, often, it becomes hard to determine the reasons behind the earthquake rupture. In this work, a BNN has been used (1) to combat the small data problem and (2) to find out the parameter combinations responsible for earthquake rupture and (3) to estimate the uncertainty associated with earthquake rupture. Two thousand rupture simulations are used to train and test the model. A simple 2D rupture geometry is considered where the fault has a Gaussian geometric heterogeneity at the center, and eight parameters vary in each simulation. The test F1-score of BNN (0.8334), which is 2.34% higher than plain NN score. Results show that the parameters of rupture propagation have higher uncertainty than the rupture arrest. Normal stresses play a vital role in determining rupture propagation and are also the highest source of uncertainty, followed by the dynamic friction coefficient. Shear stress has a moderate role, whereas the geometric features such as the width and height of the fault are least significant and uncertain.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

This paper introduces EQShapelets (EarthQuake Shapelets) a time-series shape-based approach embedded in machine learning to autonomously detect earthquakes. It promises to overcome the challenges in the field of seismology related to automated detection and cataloging of earthquakes. EQShapelets are amplitude and phase-independent, i.e., their detection sensitivity is irrespective of the magnitude of the earthquake and the time of occurrence. They are also robust to noise and other spurious signals. The detection capability of EQShapelets is tested on one week of continuous seismic data provided by the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) obtained from a station in central California near the Calaveras Fault. EQShapelets combined with a Random Forest classifier, detected all of the cataloged earthquakes and 281 uncataloged events with lower false detection rate thus offering a better performance than autocorrelation and FAST algorithms. The primary advantage of EQShapelets over competing methods is the interpretability and insight it offers. Shape-based approaches are intuitive, visually meaningful and offers immediate insight into the problem domain that goes beyond their use in accurate detection. EQShapelets, if implemented at a large scale, can significantly reduce catalog completeness magnitudes and can serve as an effective tool for near real-time earthquake monitoring and cataloging.

In this paper, we propose a fast surrogate leverage weighted sampling strategy to generate refined random Fourier features for kernel approximation. Compared to the current state-of-the-art method that uses the leverage weighted scheme [Li-ICML2019], our new strategy is simpler and more effective. It uses kernel alignment to guide the sampling process and it can avoid the matrix inversion operator when we compute the leverage function. Given n observations and s random features, our strategy can reduce the time complexity from O(ns^2+s^3) to O(ns^2), while achieving comparable (or even slightly better) prediction performance when applied to kernel ridge regression (KRR). In addition, we provide theoretical guarantees on the generalization performance of our approach, and in particular characterize the number of random features required to achieve statistical guarantees in KRR. Experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that our algorithm achieves comparable prediction performance and takes less time cost when compared to [Li-ICML2019].

It is a particularly well-suited approach to better understand the underlying structure of data when scientific understanding of the data is at an early stage. BN modelling is designed to sort out directly from indirectly related variables and offers a far richer modelling framework than classical approaches in epidemiology like, e.g., regression techniques or extensions thereof. In contrast to structural equation modelling (Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson, Tatham et al. 1998), which requires expert knowledge to design the model, the Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) method is a data-driven approach (Lewis and Ward 2013; Kratzer, Pittavino, Lewis, and Furrer 2019b). It does not rely on expert knowledge, but it can possiarXiv:1911.09006v1

Neural networks have demonstrated unmatched performance in a range of classification tasks. Despite numerous efforts of the research community, novelty detection remains one of the significant limitations of neural networks. The ability to identify previously unseen inputs as novel is crucial for our understanding of the decisions made by neural networks. At runtime, inputs not falling into any of the categories learned during training cannot be classified correctly by the neural network. Existing approaches treat the neural network as a black box and try to detect novel inputs based on the confidence of the output predictions. However, neural networks are not trained to reduce their confidence for novel inputs, which limits the effectiveness of these approaches. We propose a framework to monitor a neural network by observing the hidden layers. We employ a common abstraction from program analysis - boxes - to identify novel behaviors in the monitored layers, i.e., inputs that cause behaviors outside the box. For each neuron, the boxes range over the values seen in training. The framework is efficient and flexible to achieve a desired trade-off between raising false warnings and detecting novel inputs. We illustrate the performance and the robustness to variability in the unknown classes on popular image-classification benchmarks.

Human biases are well-documented, from implicit association tests that demonstrate biases we may not even be aware of, to field experiments that demonstrate how much these biases can affect outcomes. Over the past few years, society has started to wrestle with just how much these human biases can make their way into artificial intelligence systems -- with harmful results. At a time when many companies are looking to deploy AI systems across their operations, being acutely aware of those risks and working to reduce them is an urgent priority. The problem is not entirely new. Back in 1988, the UK Commission for Racial Equality found a British medical school guilty of discrimination.

Machine learning (ML) is a domain of artificial intelligence that allows computer algorithms to learn from experience without being explicitly programmed. To summarize neurosurgical applications of ML where it has been compared to clinical expertise, here referred to as "natural intelligence." A systematic search was performed in the PubMed and Embase databases as of August 2016 to review all studies comparing the performance of various ML approaches with that of clinical experts in neurosurgical literature. Twenty-three studies were identified that used ML algorithms for diagnosis, presurgical planning, or outcome prediction in neurosurgical patients. Compared to clinical experts, ML models demonstrated a median absolute improvement in accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve of 13% (interquartile range 4-21%) and 0.14 (interquartile range 0.07-0.21), In 29 (58%) of the 50 outcome measures for which a P-value was provided or calculated, ML models outperformed clinical experts (P .05). In 18 of 50 (36%), no difference was seen between ML and expert performance (P .05), All 4 studies that compared clinicians assisted by ML models vs clinicians alone demonstrated a better performance in the first group. We conclude that ML models have the potential to augment the decision-making capacity of clinicians in neurosurgical applications; however, significant hurdles remain associated with creating, validating, and deploying ML models in the clinical setting.

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is capable of producing reconstructed 3D images of biomolecules at near-atomic resolution. As such, it represents one of the most promising imaging techniques in structural biology. However, raw cryo-EM images are only highly corrupted - noisy and band-pass filtered - 2D projections of the target 3D biomolecules. Reconstructing the 3D molecular shape starts with the removal of image outliers, the estimation of the orientation of the biomolecule that has produced the given 2D image, and the estimation of camera parameters to correct for intensity defects. Current techniques performing these tasks are often computationally expensive, while the dataset sizes keep growing. There is a need for next-generation algorithms that preserve accuracy while improving speed and scalability. In this paper, we combine variational autoencoders (VAEs) and generative adversarial networks (GANs) to learn a low-dimensional latent representation of cryo-EM images. We perform an exploratory analysis of the obtained latent space, that is shown to have a structure of "orbits", in the sense of Lie group theory, consistent with the acquisition procedure of cryo-EM images. This analysis leads us to design an estimation method for orientation and camera parameters of single-particle cryo-EM images, together with an outliers detection procedure. As such, it opens the door to geometric approaches for unsupervised estimations of orientations and camera parameters, making possible fast cryo-EM biomolecule reconstruction.

We propose a method for face de-identification that enables fully automatic video modification at high frame rates. The goal is to maximally decorrelate the identity, while having the perception (pose, illumination and expression) fixed. We achieve this by a novel feed-forward encoder-decoder network architecture that is conditioned on the high-level representation of a person's facial image. The network is global, in the sense that it does not need to be retrained for a given video or for a given identity, and it creates natural looking image sequences with little distortion in time.