Performance Analysis
Reading a confusion matrix
What is a confusion matrix? A confusion matrix is a method of visualizing classification results. You had built a classification model that predicts some values on the test set and you also have some actual values for your target variable to compare with. Confusion matrix will show you if your predictions match the reality and how do they math in more detail. The confusion matrix below shows predicted versus actual values and gives names to classification pairs: true positives, true negatives, false negatives, and false positives.
Targeted display advertising: the case of preferential attachment
Manchanda, Saurav, Yadav, Pranjul, Doan, Khoa, Keerthi, S. Sathiya
An average adult is exposed to hundreds of digital advertisements daily (https://www.mediadynamicsinc.com/uploads/files/PR092214-Note-only-150-Ads-2mk.pdf), making the digital advertisement industry a classic example of a big-data-driven platform. As such, the ad-tech industry relies on historical engagement logs (clicks or purchases) to identify potentially interested users for the advertisement campaign of a partner (a seller who wants to target users for its products). The number of advertisements that are shown for a partner, and hence the historical campaign data available for a partner depends upon the budget constraints of the partner. Thus, enough data can be collected for the high-budget partners to make accurate predictions, while this is not the case with the low-budget partners. This skewed distribution of the data leads to "preferential attachment" of the targeted display advertising platforms towards the high-budget partners. In this paper, we develop "domain-adaptation" approaches to address the challenge of predicting interested users for the partners with insufficient data, i.e., the tail partners. Specifically, we develop simple yet effective approaches that leverage the similarity among the partners to transfer information from the partners with sufficient data to cold-start partners, i.e., partners without any campaign data. Our approaches readily adapt to the new campaign data by incremental fine-tuning, and hence work at varying points of a campaign, and not just the cold-start. We present an experimental analysis on the historical logs of a major display advertising platform (https://www.criteo.com/). Specifically, we evaluate our approaches across 149 partners, at varying points of their campaigns. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches outperform the other "domain-adaptation" approaches at different time points of the campaigns.
Unsupervised non-parametric change point detection in quasi-periodic signals
Shvetsov, Nikolay, Buzun, Nazar, Dylov, Dmitry V.
We propose a new unsupervised and non-parametric method to detect change points in intricate quasi-periodic signals. The detection relies on optimal transport theory combined with topological analysis and the bootstrap procedure. The algorithm is designed to detect changes in virtually any harmonic or a partially harmonic signal and is verified on three different sources of physiological data streams. We successfully find abnormal or irregular cardiac cycles in the waveforms for the six of the most frequent types of clinical arrhythmias using a single algorithm. The validation and the efficiency of the method are shown both on synthetic and on real time series. Our unsupervised approach reaches the level of performance of the supervised state-of-the-art techniques. We provide conceptual justification for the efficiency of the method and prove the convergence of the bootstrap procedure theoretically.
Intelligent Arxiv: Sort daily papers by learning users topics preference
Alvarez, Ezequiel, Lamagna, Federico, Miquel, Cesar, Szewc, Manuel
Current daily paper releases are becoming increasingly large and areas of research are growing in diversity. This makes it harder for scientists to keep up to date with current state of the art and identify relevant work within their lines of interest. The goal of this article is to address this problem using Machine Learning techniques. We model a scientific paper to be built as a combination of different scientific knowledge from diverse topics into a new problem. In light of this, we implement the unsupervised Machine Learning technique of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) on the corpus of papers in a given field to: i) define and extract underlying topics in the corpus; ii) get the topics weight vector for each paper in the corpus; and iii) get the topics weight vector for new papers. By registering papers preferred by a user, we build a user vector of weights using the information of the vectors of the selected papers. Hence, by performing an inner product between the user vector and each paper in the daily Arxiv release, we can sort the papers according to the user preference on the underlying topics. We have created the website IArxiv.org where users can read sorted daily Arxiv releases (and more) while the algorithm learns each users preference, yielding a more accurate sorting every day. Current IArxiv.org version runs on Arxiv categories astro-ph, gr-qc, hep-ph and hep-th and we plan to extend to others. We propose several new useful and relevant implementations to be additionally developed as well as new Machine Learning techniques beyond LDA to further improve the accuracy of this new tool.
Neural Network Representation Control: Gaussian Isolation Machines and CVC Regularization
Amit, Guy, Rosenberg, Ishai, Levy, Moshe, Bitton, Ron, Shabtai, Asaf, Elovici, Yuval
In many cases, neural network classifiers are likely to be exposed to input data that is outside of their training distribution data. Samples from outside the distribution may be classified as an existing class with high probability by softmax-based classifiers; such incorrect classifications affect the performance of the classifiers and the applications/systems that depend on them. Previous research aimed at distinguishing training distribution data from out-of-distribution data (OOD) has proposed detectors that are external to the classification method. We present Gaussian isolation machine (GIM), a novel hybrid (generative-discriminative) classifier aimed at solving the problem arising when OOD data is encountered. The GIM is based on a neural network and utilizes a new loss function that imposes a distribution on each of the trained classes in the neural network's output space, which can be approximated by a Gaussian. The proposed GIM's novelty lies in its discriminative performance and generative capabilities, a combination of characteristics not usually seen in a single classifier. The GIM achieves state-of-the-art classification results on image recognition and sentiment analysis benchmarking datasets and can also deal with OOD inputs. We also demonstrate the benefits of incorporating part of the GIM's loss function into standard neural networks as a regularization method.
Boosting Techniques in Python: Predicting Hotel Cancellations
For this reason, boosting is referred to as an ensemble method. In this example, boosting techniques are used to determine whether a customer will cancel their hotel booking or not. Hotel cancellations represent the response (or dependent) variable, where 1 cancel, 0 follow through with booking. The relevant features to be included as the x variable in the boosting models are identified by the ExtraTreesClassifier. The three features identified by the ExtraTreesClassifier (excluding variables deemed to be theoretically irrelevant) are lead time, country and deposit type. The following boosting techniques are used in predicting hotel cancellations.
Automatic image-based identification and biomass estimation of invertebrates
รrje, Johanna, Melvad, Claus, Jeppesen, Mads Rosenhรธj, Madsen, Sigurd Agerskov, Raitoharju, Jenni, Rasmussen, Maria Strandgรฅrd, Iosifidis, Alexandros, Tirronen, Ville, Meissner, Kristian, Gabbouj, Moncef, Hรธye, Toke Thomas
Understanding how biological communities respond to environmental changes is a key challenge in ecology and ecosystem management. The apparent decline of insect populations necessitates more biomonitoring but the time-consuming sorting and identification of taxa pose strong limitations on how many insect samples can be processed. In turn, this affects the scale of efforts to map invertebrate diversity altogether. Given recent advances in computer vision, we propose to replace the standard manual approach of human expert-based sorting and identification with an automatic image-based technology. We describe a robot-enabled image-based identification machine, which can automate the process of invertebrate identification, biomass estimation and sample sorting. We use the imaging device to generate a comprehensive image database of terrestrial arthropod species. We use this database to test the classification accuracy i.e. how well the species identity of a specimen can be predicted from images taken by the machine. We also test sensitivity of the classification accuracy to the camera settings (aperture and exposure time) in order to move forward with the best possible image quality. We use state-of-the-art Resnet-50 and InceptionV3 CNNs for the classification task. The results for the initial dataset are very promising ($\overline{ACC}=0.980$). The system is general and can easily be used for other groups of invertebrates as well. As such, our results pave the way for generating more data on spatial and temporal variation in invertebrate abundance, diversity and biomass.
Privacy-Preserving Boosting in the Local Setting
In machine learning, boosting is one of the most popular methods that designed to combine multiple base learners to a superior one. The well-known Boosted Decision Tree classifier, has been widely adopted in many areas. In the big data era, the data held by individual and entities, like personal images, browsing history and census information, are more likely to contain sensitive information. The privacy concern raises when such data leaves the hand of the owners and be further explored or mined. Such privacy issue demands that the machine learning algorithm should be privacy aware. Recently, Local Differential Privacy is proposed as an effective privacy protection approach, which offers a strong guarantee to the data owners, as the data is perturbed before any further usage, and the true values never leave the hands of the owners. Thus the machine learning algorithm with the private data instances is of great value and importance. In this paper, we are interested in developing the privacy-preserving boosting algorithm that a data user is allowed to build a classifier without knowing or deriving the exact value of each data samples. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed boosting algorithm and the high utility of the learned classifiers.
A Deterministic Streaming Sketch for Ridge Regression
Shi, Benwei, Phillips, Jeff M.
We provide a deterministic space-efficient algorithm for estimating ridge regression. For $n$ data points with $d$ features and a large enough regularization parameter, we provide a solution within $\varepsilon$ L$_2$ error using only $O(d/\varepsilon)$ space. This is the first $o(d^2)$ space algorithm for this classic problem. The algorithm sketches the covariance matrix by variants of Frequent Directions, which implies it can operate in insertion-only streams and a variety of distributed data settings. In comparisons to randomized sketching algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets, our algorithm has less empirical error using less space and similar time.