Performance Analysis
Automatic Catalog of RRLyrae from $\sim$ 14 million VVV Light Curves: How far can we go with traditional machine-learning?
Cabral, Juan B., Ramos, Felipe, Gurovich, Sebastián, Granitto, Pablo
The creation of a 3D map of the bulge using RRLyrae (RRL) is one of the main goals of the VVV(X) surveys. The overwhelming number of sources under analysis request the use of automatic procedures. In this context, previous works introduced the use of Machine Learning (ML) methods for the variable star classification. Our goal is the development and analysis of an automatic procedure, based on ML, for the identification of RRLs in the VVV Survey. This procedure will be use to generate reliable catalogs integrated over several tiles in the survey. After the reconstruction of light-curves, we extract a set of period and intensity-based features. We use for the first time a new subset of pseudo color features. We discuss all the appropriate steps needed to define our automatic pipeline: selection of quality measures; sampling procedures; classifier setup and model selection. As final result, we construct an ensemble classifier with an average Recall of 0.48 and average Precision of 0.86 over 15 tiles. We also make available our processed datasets and a catalog of candidate RRLs. Perhaps most interestingly, from a classification perspective based on photometric broad-band data, is that our results indicate that Color is an informative feature type of the RRL that should be considered for automatic classification methods via ML. We also argue that Recall and Precision in both tables and curves are high quality metrics for this highly imbalanced problem. Furthermore, we show for our VVV data-set that to have good estimates it is important to use the original distribution more than reduced samples with an artificial balance. Finally, we show that the use of ensemble classifiers helps resolve the crucial model selection step, and that most errors in the identification of RRLs are related to low quality observations of some sources or to the difficulty to resolve the RRL-C type given the date.
An Imitation Game for Learning Semantic Parsers from User Interaction
Yao, Ziyu, Tang, Yiqi, Yih, Wen-tau, Sun, Huan, Su, Yu
Despite the widely successful applications, bootstrapping and fine-tuning semantic parsers are still a tedious process with challenges such as costly data annotation and privacy risks. In this paper, we suggest an alternative, human-in-the-loop methodology for learning semantic parsers directly from users. A semantic parser should be introspective of its uncertainties and prompt for user demonstration when uncertain. In doing so it also gets to imitate the user behavior and continue improving itself autonomously with the hope that eventually it may become as good as the user in interpreting their questions. To combat the sparsity of demonstration, we propose a novel annotation-efficient imitation learning algorithm, which iteratively collects new datasets by mixing demonstrated states and confident predictions and re-trains the semantic parser in a Dataset Aggregation fashion (Ross et al., 2011). We provide a theoretical analysis of its cost bound and also empirically demonstrate its promising performance on the text-to-SQL problem.
Learning to Complement Humans
Wilder, Bryan, Horvitz, Eric, Kamar, Ece
A rising vision for AI in the open world centers on the development of systems that can complement humans for perceptual, diagnostic, and reasoning tasks. To date, systems aimed at complementing the skills of people have employed models trained to be as accurate as possible in isolation. We demonstrate how an end-to-end learning strategy can be harnessed to optimize the combined performance of human-machine teams by considering the distinct abilities of people and machines. The goal is to focus machine learning on problem instances that are difficult for humans, while recognizing instances that are difficult for the machine and seeking human input on them. We demonstrate in two real-world domains (scientific discovery and medical diagnosis) that human-machine teams built via these methods outperform the individual performance of machines and people. We then analyze conditions under which this complementarity is strongest, and which training methods amplify it. Taken together, our work provides the first systematic investigation of how machine learning systems can be trained to complement human reasoning.
The False Positives, False Negatives, and Positive Negatives of the Coronavirus
As the coronavirus began to creep into our lives--but before it came to define them entirely--e-mails from across the world included the cheery phrase "Crazy times!" Messages from friends here in Los Angeles tended to favor something locally sourced, courtesy of Jim Morrison and the Doors: "Strange Days." Strange days, indeed, as we waited for the result of my wife's test, hoping that it would be positive. Can you think of any other illness for which a positive result might be eagerly anticipated? Unable to do anything but lie in bed, she experienced symptoms that were severe by any usual standard but most welcome by the newly enhanced metrics of affliction ushered in by the virus.
PeerNomination: Relaxing Exactness for Increased Accuracy in Peer Selection
Mattei, Nicholas, Turrini, Paolo, Zhydkov, Stanislav
In peer selection agents must choose a subset of themselves for an award or a prize. As agents are self-interested, we want to design algorithms that are impartial, so that an individual agent cannot affect their own chance of being selected. This problem has broad application in resource allocation and mechanism design and has received substantial attention in the artificial intelligence literature. Here, we present a novel algorithm for impartial peer selection, PeerNomination, and provide a theoretical analysis of its accuracy. Our algorithm possesses various desirable features. In particular, it does not require an explicit partitioning of the agents, as previous algorithms in the literature. We show empirically that it achieves higher accuracy than the exiting algorithms over several metrics.
Stereotype-Free Classification of Fictitious Faces
Toutiaee, Mohammadhossein, Amirian, Soheyla, Miller, John A., Li, Sheng
Equal Opportunity and Fairness are receiving increasing attention in artificial intelligence. Stereotyping is another source of discrimination, which yet has been unstudied in literature. GAN-made faces would be exposed to such discrimination, if they are classified by human perception. It is possible to eliminate the human impact on fictitious faces classification task by the use of statistical approaches. We present a novel approach through penalized regression to label stereotype-free GAN-generated synthetic unlabeled images. The proposed approach aids labeling new data (fictitious output images) by minimizing a penalized version of the least squares cost function between realistic pictures and target pictures.
Standardizing and Benchmarking Crisis-related Social Media Datasets for Humanitarian Information Processing
Alam, Firoj, Sajjad, Hassan, Imran, Muhammad, Ofli, Ferda
Time-critical analysis of social media streams is important for humanitarian organizations to plan rapid response during disasters. The crisis informatics research community has developed several techniques and systems to process and classify big crisis related data posted on social media. However, due to the dispersed nature of the datasets used in the literature, it is not possible to compare the results and measure the progress made towards better models for crisis informatics. In this work, we attempt to bridge this gap by standardizing various existing crisis-related datasets. We consolidate labels of eight annotated data sources and provide 166.1k and 141.5k tweets for informativeness and humanitarian classification tasks, respectively. The consolidation results in a larger dataset that affords the ability to train more sophisticated models. To that end, we provide baseline results using CNN and BERT models.
Detecting Electric Devices in 3D Images of Bags
Bagnall, Anthony, Southam, Paul, Large, James, Harvey, Richard
The aviation and transport security industries face the challenge of screening high volumes of baggage for threats and contraband in the minimum time possible. Automation and semi-automation of this procedure offers the potential to increase security by detecting more threats and improve the customer experience by speeding up the process. Traditional 2D x-ray images are often extremely difficult to examine due to the fact that they are tightly packed and contain a wide variety of cluttered and occluded objects. Because of these limitations, major airports are introducing 3D x-ray Computed Tomography (CT) baggage scanning. We investigate whether we can automate the process of detecting electric devices in these 3D images of luggage. Detecting electrical devices is of particular concern as they can be used to conceal explosives. Given the massive volume of luggage that needs to be screened for this threat, the best way to automate the detection is to first filter whether a bag contains an electric device or not, and if it does, to identify the number of devices and their location. We present an algorithm, Unpack, Predict, eXtract, Repack (UXPR), which involves unpacking through segmenting the data at a range of scales using an algorithm known as the Sieve, predicting whether a segment is electrical or not based on the histogram of voxel intensities, then repacking the bag by ensembling the segments and predictions to identify the devices in bags. Through a range of experiments using data provided by ALERT (Awareness and Localization of Explosives-Related Threats) we show that this system can find a high proportion of devices with unsupervised segmentation if a similar device has been seen before, and shows promising results for detecting devices not seen at all based on the properties of its constituent parts.
Cross-Validation for Correlated Data
Rabinowicz, Assaf, Rosset, Saharon
Datasets with correlation structures are common in modern statistical applications in various fields, such as geostatistics (Goovaerts 1999), genetics (Maddison 1990) and ecology (Roberts et al. 2017). Different modeling methods address the correlation structure differently. Some modeling methods, such as Gaussian process regression (Rasmussen and Williams 2006, GPR) and generalized least squares (Hansen 2007, GLS), utilize explicitly the correlation structure for achieving better prediction accuracy. Other predictive models, like random forest (Breiman 2001, RF), gradient boosting machines (Friedman 2002, GBM) and other machine learning models, do not consider explicitly the correlation structure but are still potentially able to utilize the correlation implicitly. The analysis in this paper mainly focuses on correlation that appears due to latent objects, such as random effects and random fields as appear in generalized linear mixed models (Verbeke 1997, GLMM) and generalized Gaussian process regression (Rasmussen and Williams 2006, GGPR) in clustered, temporal and spatial datasets.
Concept Drift Detection via Equal Intensity k-means Space Partitioning
Zhang, Anjin Liu Jie Lu Guangquan
Data stream poses additional challenges to statistical classification tasks because distributions of the training and target samples may differ as time passes. Such distribution change in streaming data is called concept drift. Numerous histogram-based distribution change detection methods have been proposed to detect drift. Most histograms are developed on grid-based or tree-based space partitioning algorithms which makes the space partitions arbitrary, unexplainable, and may cause drift blind-spots. There is a need to improve the drift detection accuracy for histogram-based methods with the unsupervised setting. To address this problem, we propose a cluster-based histogram, called equal intensity k-means space partitioning (EI-kMeans). In addition, a heuristic method to improve the sensitivity of drift detection is introduced. The fundamental idea of improving the sensitivity is to minimize the risk of creating partitions in distribution offset regions. Pearson's chi-square test is used as the statistical hypothesis test so that the test statistics remain independent of the sample distribution. The number of bins and their shapes, which strongly influence the ability to detect drift, are determined dynamically from the sample based on an asymptotic constraint in the chi-square test. Accordingly, three algorithms are developed to implement concept drift detection, including a greedy centroids initialization algorithm, a cluster amplify-shrink algorithm, and a drift detection algorithm. For drift adaptation, we recommend retraining the learner if a drift is detected. The results of experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the advantages of EI-kMeans and show its efficacy in detecting concept drift.