Recognition of anomalous events is a challenging but critical task in many scientific and industrial fields, especially when the properties of anomalies are unknown. In this paper, we present a new anomaly concept called "unicorn" or unique event and present a new, model-independent, unsupervised detection algorithm to detect unicorns. The Temporal Outlier Factor (TOF) is introduced to measure the uniqueness of events in continuous data sets from dynamic systems. The concept of unique events differs significantly from traditional outliers in many aspects: while repetitive outliers are no longer unique events, a unique event is not necessarily outlier in either pointwise or collective sense; it does not necessarily fall out from the distribution of normal activity. The performance of our algorithm was examined in recognizing unique events on different types of simulated data sets with anomalies and it was compared with the standard Local Outlier Factor (LOF). TOF had superior performance compared to LOF even in recognizing traditional outliers and it also recognized unique events that LOF did not. Benefits of the unicorn concept and the new detection method were illustrated by example data sets from very different scientific fields. Our algorithm successfully recognized unique events in those cases where they were already known such as the gravitational waves of a black hole merger on LIGO detector data and the signs of respiratory failure on ECG data series. Furthermore, unique events were found on the LIBOR data set of the last 30 years.

As the new coronavirus burns its way across the world, scientists are rushing to find ways to identify those who have been infected -- including those who have recovered from COVID-19. Those people, the thinking goes, may be immune to the deadly virus and could theoretically help restart the economy without fear of reinfection. One key piece of this puzzle is rolling out what are known as serological tests that look for specific antibodies in a person's blood. So far, they have been used to estimate how much of the population has been exposed in different areas, such as New York City and Los Angeles. But what are these tests, and can they really help to identify who is immune to SARS-CoV-2? From how they work to what they tell us, here's everything you need to know about coronavirus antibody testing.

Recently, I have been working on a binary classification problem with an imbalanced dataset, where the ratio of positive class to negative class is around 1:4. Imbalanced classification problems are so commonplace that data enthusiasts would encounter them sooner or later. In this post, I will be sharing three tree-based Machine Learning Models that can help handle imbalanced datasets. The dataset that I am going to use to illustrate the effectiveness of algorithms is the credit card fraud dataset from Kaggle. This is an extremely imbalanced dataset: out of 284,807 transactions, there are only 492 frauds. Following the convention, we label the fraud class samples as positive class and normal transactions, negative class.

Machine-learning algorithms trained on features extracted from static code analysis can successfully detect Android malware. However, these approaches can be evaded by sparse evasion attacks that produce adversarial malware samples in which only few features are modified. This can be achieved, e.g., by injecting a small set of fake permissions and system calls into the malicious application, without compromising its intrusive functionality. To improve adversarial robustness against such sparse attacks, learning algorithms should avoid providing decisions which only rely upon a small subset of discriminant features; otherwise, even manipulating some of them may easily allow evading detection. Previous work showed that classifiers which avoid overemphasizing few discriminant features tend to be more robust against sparse attacks, and have developed simple metrics to help identify and select more robust algorithms. In this work, we aim to investigate whether gradient-based attribution methods used to explain classifiers' decisions by identifying the most relevant features can also be used to this end. Our intuition is that a classifier providing more uniform, evener attributions should rely upon a larger set of features, instead of overemphasizing few of them, thus being more robust against sparse attacks. We empirically investigate the connection between gradient-based explanations and adversarial robustness on a case study conducted on Android malware detection, and show that, in some cases, there is a strong correlation between the distribution of such explanations and adversarial robustness. We conclude the paper by discussing how our findings may thus enable the development of more efficient mechanisms both to evaluate and to improve adversarial robustness.

Despite the potential of Machine learning (ML) to learn the behavior of malware, detect novel malware samples, and significantly improve information security (InfoSec) we see few, if any, high-impact ML techniques in deployed systems, notwithstanding multiple reported successes in open literature. We hypothesize that the failure of ML in making high-impacts in InfoSec are rooted in a disconnect between the two communities as evidenced by a semantic gap---a difference in how executables are described (e.g. the data and features extracted from the data). Specifically, current datasets and representations used by ML are not suitable for learning the behaviors of an executable and differ significantly from those used by the InfoSec community. In this paper, we survey existing datasets used for classifying malware by ML algorithms and the features that are extracted from the data. We observe that: 1) the current set of extracted features are primarily syntactic, not behavioral, 2) datasets generally contain extreme exemplars producing a dataset in which it is easy to discriminate classes, and 3) the datasets provide significantly different representations of the data encountered in real-world systems. For ML to make more of an impact in the InfoSec community requires a change in the data (including the features and labels) that is used to bridge the current semantic gap. As a first step in enabling more behavioral analyses, we label existing malware datasets with behavioral features using open-source threat reports associated with malware families. This behavioral labeling alters the analysis from identifying intent (e.g. good vs bad) or malware family membership to an analysis of which behaviors are exhibited by an executable. We offer the annotations with the hope of inspiring future improvements in the data that will further bridge the semantic gap between the ML and InfoSec communities.

Gradient-domain machine learning (GDML) is an accurate and efficient approach to learn a molecular potential and associated force field based on the kernel ridge regression algorithm. Here, we demonstrate its application to learn an effective coarse-grained (CG) model from all-atom simulation data in a sample efficient manner. The coarse-grained force field is learned by following the thermodynamic consistency principle, here by minimizing the error between the predicted coarse-grained force and the all-atom mean force in the coarse-grained coordinates. Solving this problem by GDML directly is impossible because coarse-graining requires averaging over many training data points, resulting in impractical memory requirements for storing the kernel matrices. In this work, we propose a data-efficient and memory-saving alternative. Using ensemble learning and stratified sampling, we propose a 2-layer training scheme that enables GDML to learn an effective coarse-grained model. We illustrate our method on a simple biomolecular system, alanine dipeptide, by reconstructing the free energy landscape of a coarse-grained variant of this molecule. Our novel GDML training scheme yields a smaller free energy error than neural networks when the training set is small, and a comparably high accuracy when the training set is sufficiently large.

South Korea's infectious disease experts said Thursday that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of over 260 people here testing positive again for the novel coronavirus days and even weeks after marking full recoveries. Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said the committee members found little reason to believe that those cases could be COVID-19 reinfections or reactivations, which would have made global efforts to contain the virus much more daunting. "The tests detected the ribonucleic acid of the dead virus," said Oh, a Seoul National University hospital doctor, at a press conference Thursday held at the National Medical Center. He went on to explain that in PCR tests, or polymerase chain reaction tests, used for COVID-19 diagnosis, genetic materials of the virus amplify during testing, whether it is from a live virus or just from fragments of dead virus cells that can take months to clear from recovered patients. The PCR tests cannot distinguish whether the virus is alive or dead, he added, and this can lead to false positives.

In this day and age, a business that leverages data to understand the drivers of its customers' behaviour has a true competitive advantage. Organisations can dramatically improve their performance in the market by analysing customer level data in an effective way and focus their efforts towards those that are more likely to engage. One trialled and tested approach to tease out this type of insight is Propensity Modelling, which combines information such as a customers' demographics (age, race, religion, gender, family size, ethnicity, income, education level), psycho-graphic (social class, lifestyle and personality characteristics), engagement (emails opened, emails clicked, searches on mobile app, webpage dwell time, etc.), user experience (customer service phone and email wait times, number of refunds, average shipping times), and user behaviour (purchase value on different time-scales, number of days since most recent purchase, time between offer and conversion, etc.) to estimate the likelihood of a certain customer profile to performing a certain type of behaviour (e.g. the purchase of a product). Once you understand the probability of a certain customer to interact with your brand, buy a product or a sign up for a service, you can use this information to create scenarios, be it minimising marketing expenditure, maximising acquisition targets, and optimise email send frequency or depth of discount. In this project I'm analysing the results of a bank direct marketing campaign to sell term deposits in order to identify what type of customer is more likely to respond. The marketing campaigns were based on phone calls and more than one contact to the same client was required at times.

Multimodal relational data analysis has become of increasing importance in recent years, for exploring across different domains of data, such as images and their text tags obtained from social networking services (e.g., Flickr). A variety of data analysis methods have been developed for visualization; to give an example, t-Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) computes low-dimensional feature vectors so that their similarities keep those of the observed data vectors. However, t-SNE is designed only for a single domain of data but not for multimodal data; this paper aims at visualizing multimodal relational data consisting of data vectors in multiple domains with relations across these vectors. By extending t-SNE, we herein propose Multimodal Relational Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (MR-SNE), that (1) first computes augmented relations, where we observe the relations across domains and compute those within each of domains via the observed data vectors, and (2) jointly embeds the augmented relations to a low-dimensional space. Through visualization of Flickr and Animal with Attributes 2 datasets, proposed MR-SNE is compared with other graph embedding-based approaches; MR-SNE demonstrates the promising performance.

The graphical lasso is the most popular estimator in Gaussian graphical models, but its performance hinges on a regularization parameter that needs to be calibrated to each application at hand. In this paper, we propose a novel calibration scheme for this parameter. The scheme is equipped with theoretical guarantees and motivates a thresholding pipeline that can improve graph recovery. Moreover, requiring at most one line search over the regularization path of the graphical lasso, the calibration scheme is computationally more efficient than competing schemes that are based on resampling. Finally, we show in simulations that our approach can improve on the graph recovery of other approaches considerably.