The task of supervised machine learning is given a set of recorded observations and their outcomes to predict the outcome of new observations. Standard classification techniques aim for the highest overall accuracy or, equivalently, for the smallest total error, and include among others support vector machines, Bayesian classifiers, logistic regression, decision tree classifiers such as CART [6] and C4.5 [38], and ensemble methods which build several classifiers and aggregate their predictions such as Bagging [4], AdaBoost [16] and Random Forests [5]. Of particular interest in certain domains are binary classifiers which deal with cases where only two classes of outcomes are considered, such as fraudulent and legitimate credit card transactions, responders and non-responders to a marketing campaign, patients with and without cancer, intrusive and authorised network access, and defaulting and repaying debtors to name a few. In most of these cases, one of the classes is a small minority and consequently traditional classifiers might classify all of its members as belonging to the majority class without any significant overall accuracy loss. The severity of this class imbalance becomes more noticeable when failing to correctly predict a minority class member is more costly than doing so with a member of the majority class, as the case often is. A remedy to the undesirable situation just described are classifiers which, instead of accuracy, take misclassification costs into account and are thus termed cost-sensitive. We illustrate this idea in the credit card fraud detection framework: accepting a fraudulent transaction as legitimate incurs a cost equal to its amount.

Previous works on the CERT insider threat detection case have neglected graph and text features despite their relevance to describe user behavior. Additionally, existing systems heavily rely on feature engineering and audit data aggregation to detect malicious activities. This is time consuming, requires expert knowledge and prevents tracing back alerts to precise user actions. To address these issues we introduce ADSAGE to detect anomalies in audit log events modeled as graph edges. Our general method is the first to perform anomaly detection at edge level while supporting both edge sequences and attributes, which can be numeric, categorical or even text. We describe how ADSAGE can be used for fine-grained, event level insider threat detection in different audit logs from the CERT use case. Remarking that there is no standard benchmark for the CERT problem, we use a previously proposed evaluation setting based on realistic recall-based metrics. We evaluate ADSAGE on authentication, email traffic and web browsing logs from the CERT insider threat datasets, as well as on real-world authentication events. ADSAGE is effective to detect anomalies in authentications, modeled as user to computer interactions, and in email communications. Simple baselines give surprisingly strong results as well. We also report performance split by malicious scenarios present in the CERT datasets: interestingly, several detectors are complementary and could be combined to improve detection. Overall, our results show that graph features are informative to characterize malicious insider activities, and that detection at fine-grained level is possible.

Medical imaging systems are commonly assessed and optimized by use of objective measures of image quality (IQ). The Ideal Observer (IO) performance has been advocated to provide a figure-of-merit for use in assessing and optimizing imaging systems because the IO sets an upper performance limit among all observers. When joint signal detection and localization tasks are considered, the IO that employs a modified generalized likelihood ratio test maximizes observer performance as characterized by the localization receiver operating characteristic (LROC) curve. Computations of likelihood ratios are analytically intractable in the majority of cases. Therefore, sampling-based methods that employ Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques have been developed to approximate the likelihood ratios. However, the applications of MCMC methods have been limited to relatively simple object models. Supervised learning-based methods that employ convolutional neural networks have been recently developed to approximate the IO for binary signal detection tasks. In this paper, the ability of supervised learning-based methods to approximate the IO for joint signal detection and localization tasks is explored. Both background-known-exactly and background-known-statistically signal detection and localization tasks are considered. The considered object models include a lumpy object model and a clustered lumpy model, and the considered measurement noise models include Laplacian noise, Gaussian noise, and mixed Poisson-Gaussian noise. The LROC curves produced by the supervised learning-based method are compared to those produced by the MCMC approach or analytical computation when feasible. The potential utility of the proposed method for computing objective measures of IQ for optimizing imaging system performance is explored.

Even the most experienced Data Scientists are not always familiar with the best practices involved with developing a Machine Learning pipeline. There is a lot of confusion about what steps should be involved, what should be their sequence and, in general, how to ensure that the insights you create are accurate and valuable. There is also a very limited number of good resources describing a practical and correct approach. However, after many data science projects, you begin to realise the approach to building a pipeline always remains the same. Machine Learning pipelines are modular, and, depending on the situation, some steps can be added or skipped.

Machine learning and data science require more than just throwing data into a python library and utilizing whatever comes out. Data scientists need to actually understand the data and the processes behind the data to be able to implement a successful system. One key methodology to implementation is knowing when a model might benefit from utilizing bootstrapping methods. These are what are called ensemble models. Some examples of ensemble models are AdaBoost and Stochastic Gradient Boosting.

We propose a novel sequence prediction method for sequential data capturing node traversals in graphs. Our method builds on a statistical modelling framework that combines multiple higher-order network models into a single multi-order model. We develop a technique to fit such multi-order models in empirical sequential data and to select the optimal maximum order. Our framework facilitates both next-element and full sequence prediction given a sequence-prefix of any length. We evaluate our model based on six empirical data sets containing sequences from website navigation as well as public transport systems. The results show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element prediction. We further demonstrate the accuracy of our method during out-of-sample sequence prediction and validate that our method can scale to data sets with millions of sequences.

Ensemble learning is widely applied in Machine Learning (ML) to improve model performance and to mitigate decision risks. In this approach, predictions from a diverse set of learners are combined to obtain a joint decision. Recently, various methods have been explored in literature for estimating decision uncertainties using ensemble learning; however, determining which metrics are a better fit for certain decision-making applications remains a challenging task. In this paper, we study the following key research question in the selection of uncertainty metrics: when does an uncertainty metric outperforms another? We answer this question via a rigorous analysis of two commonly used uncertainty metrics in ensemble learning, namely ensemble mean and ensemble variance. We show that, under mild assumptions on the ensemble learners, ensemble mean is preferable with respect to ensemble variance as an uncertainty metric for decision making.

A recent virtual event addressed another such issue: the potential impact machines, imbued with artificial intelligence, may have on the economy and the financial system. The event was organised by the Bank of England, in collaboration with CEPR and the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis at Imperial College. What follows is a summary of some of the recorded presentations. The full catalogue of videos are available on the Bank of England's website. In his presentation, Stuart Russell (University of California, Berkeley), author of the leading textbook on artificial intelligence (AI), gives a broad historical overview of the field since its emergence in the 1950s, followed by insight into more recent developments.

Continuous technology scaling and the introduction of advanced technology nodes in Integrated Circuit (IC) fabrication is constantly exposing new manufacturability issues. One such issue, stemming from complex interaction between design and process, is the problem of design hotspots. Such hotspots are known to vary from design to design and, ideally, should be predicted early and corrected in the design stage itself, as opposed to relying on the foundry to develop process fixes for every hotspot, which would be intractable. In the past, various efforts have been made to address this issue by using a known database of hotspots as the source of information. The majority of these efforts use either Machine Learning (ML) or Pattern Matching (PM) techniques to identify and predict hotspots in new incoming designs. However, almost all of them suffer from high false-alarm rates, mainly because they are oblivious to the root causes of hotspots. In this work, we seek to address this limitation by using a novel database enhancement approach through synthetic pattern generation based on carefully crafted Design of Experiments (DOEs). Effectiveness of the proposed method against the state-of-the-art is evaluated on a 45nm process using industry-standard tools and designs.

Healthcare providers are increasingly using learned methods to predict and understand long-term patient outcomes in order to make meaningful interventions. However, despite innovations in this area, deep learning models often struggle to match performance of shallow linear models in predicting these outcomes, making it difficult to leverage such techniques in practice. In this work, motivated by the task of clinical prediction from insurance claims, we present a new technique called reverse distillation which pretrains deep models by using high-performing linear models for initialization. We make use of the longitudinal structure of insurance claims datasets to develop Self Attention with Reverse Distillation, or SARD, an architecture that utilizes a combination of contextual embedding, temporal embedding and self-attention mechanisms and most critically is trained via reverse distillation. SARD outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple clinical prediction outcomes, with ablation studies revealing that reverse distillation is a primary driver of these improvements.