A key challenge of oversampling in imbalanced classification is that the generation of new minority samples often neglects the usage of majority classes, resulting in most new minority sampling spreading the whole minority space. In view of this, we present a new oversampling framework based on the counterfactual theory. Our framework introduces a counterfactual objective by leveraging the rich inherent information of majority classes and explicitly perturbing majority samples to generate new samples in the territory of minority space. It can be analytically shown that the new minority samples satisfy the minimum inversion, and therefore most of them locate near the decision boundary. Empirical evaluations on benchmark datasets suggest that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Fast approximations of power flow results are beneficial in power system planning and live operation. In planning, millions of power flow calculations are necessary if multiple years, different control strategies or contingency policies are to be considered. In live operation, grid operators must assess if grid states comply with contingency requirements in a short time. In this paper, we compare regression and classification methods to either predict multi-variable results, e.g. bus voltage magnitudes and line loadings, or binary classifications of time steps to identify critical loading situations. We test the methods on three realistic power systems based on time series in 15 min and 5 min resolution of one year. We compare different machine learning models, such as multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), decision trees, k-nearest neighbours, gradient boosting, and evaluate the required training time and prediction times as well as the prediction errors. We additionally determine the amount of training data needed for each method and show results, including the approximation of untrained curtailment of generation. Regarding the compared methods, we identified the MLPs as most suitable for the task. The MLP-based models can predict critical situations with an accuracy of 97-98 % and a very low number of false negative predictions of 0.0-0.64 %.

Detect fraud and determine risk by analyzing 100% of your claims. Fraud is becoming more pervasive in the insurance industry. Traditional approaches to fraud-detection rely on rules-based alerts, which are ineffective at dealing with social networks. Data and patterns also continue to change dynamically, and the risk continues to grow as processes moves online and in real time. Daisy's proprietary Theory of Risk measures the causal relationships between all factors and the ripple effects that impact a business decision.

With the recent proliferation of the use of text classifications, researchers have found that there are certain unintended biases in text classification datasets. For example, texts containing some demographic identity-terms (e.g., "gay", "black") are more likely to be abusive in existing abusive language detection datasets. As a result, models trained with these datasets may consider sentences like "She makes me happy to be gay" as abusive simply because of the word "gay." In this paper, we formalize the unintended biases in text classification datasets as a kind of selection bias from the non-discrimination distribution to the discrimination distribution. Based on this formalization, we further propose a model-agnostic debiasing training framework by recovering the non-discrimination distribution using instance weighting, which does not require any extra resources or annotations apart from a pre-defined set of demographic identity-terms. Experiments demonstrate that our method can effectively alleviate the impacts of the unintended biases without significantly hurting models' generalization ability.

Biofouling is the accumulation of organisms on surfaces immersed in water. It is of particular concern to the international shipping industry because fouling increases the drag on vessels as they move through the water, resulting in higher fuel costs, and presents a biosecurity risk by providing a pathway for marine non-indigenous species (NIS) to establish in new areas. There is growing interest within jurisdictions to strengthen biofouling risk-management regulations, but it is expensive to conduct in-water inspections and assess the collected data to determine the biofouling state of vessel hulls. Machine learning is well suited to tackle the latter challenge, and here we apply so-called deep learning to automate the classification of images from in-water inspections for the presence and severity of biofouling. We combined images collected from in-water surveys conducted by the Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries and the California State Lands Commission, and annotated them using the Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) crowdsourcing platform. We compared the annotations from three biofouling experts on a 120-sample subset of these images, and found that for two tasks, identifying images containing fouling, and identifying images containing heavy fouling, they showed 89% agreement (95% CI: 87-92%). It was found that the MTurk labelling approach achieved similar agreement with experts, which we defined as performing at most 5% worse than experts (p=0.004-0.020). Our deep learning model trained with the MTurk annotations also showed reasonable performance in comparison to expert agreement, although at a lower significance level (p=0.071-0.093). We also demonstrate that significantly better performance than expert agreement can be achieved if a classifier with high recall or precision was required.

We consider offline detection of a single changepoint in binary and count time-series. We compare exact tests based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and the likelihood ratio (LR) statistics, and a new proposal that combines exact two-sample conditional tests with multiplicity correction, against standard asymptotic tests based on the Brownian bridge approximation to the CUSUM statistic. We see empirically that the exact tests are much more powerful in situations where normal approximations driving asymptotic tests are not trustworthy: (i) small sample settings; (ii) sparse parametric settings; (iii) time-series with changepoint near the boundary. We also consider a multichannel version of the problem, where channels can have different changepoints. Controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR), we simultaneously detect changes in multiple channels. This "local" approach is shown to be more advantageous than multivariate global testing approaches when the number of channels with changepoints is much smaller than the total number of channels. As a natural application, we consider network-valued time-series and use our approach with (a) edges as binary channels and (b) node-degrees or other local subgraph statistics as count channels. The local testing approach is seen to be much more informative than global network changepoint algorithms.

In identifying infected patients in a population, group testing is an effective method to reduce the number of tests and correct the test errors. In the group testing procedure, tests are performed on pools of specimens collected from patients, where the number of pools is lower than that of patients. The performance of group testing heavily depends on the design of pools and algorithms that are used in inferring the infected patients from the test outcomes. In this paper, an adaptive design method of pools based on the predictive distribution is proposed in the framework of Bayesian inference. The proposed method executed using the belief propagation algorithm results in more accurate identification of the infected patients, as compared to the group testing performed on random pools determined in advance.

Classification is a well-studied machine learning task which concerns the assignment of instances to a set of outcomes. Classification models support the optimization of managerial decision-making across a variety of operational business processes. For instance, customer churn prediction models are adopted to increase the efficiency of retention campaigns by optimizing the selection of customers that are to be targeted. Cost-sensitive and causal classification methods have independently been proposed to improve the performance of classification models. The former considers the benefits and costs of correct and incorrect classifications, such as the benefit of a retained customer, whereas the latter estimates the causal effect of an action, such as a retention campaign, on the outcome of interest. This study integrates cost-sensitive and causal classification by elaborating a unifying evaluation framework. The framework encompasses a range of existing and novel performance measures for evaluating both causal and conventional classification models in a cost-sensitive as well as a cost-insensitive manner. We proof that conventional classification is a specific case of causal classification in terms of a range of performance measures when the number of actions is equal to one. The framework is shown to instantiate to application-specific cost-sensitive performance measures that have been recently proposed for evaluating customer retention and response uplift models, and allows to maximize profitability when adopting a causal classification model for optimizing decision-making. The proposed framework paves the way toward the development of cost-sensitive causal learning methods and opens a range of opportunities for improving data-driven business decision-making.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.