Biofouling is the accumulation of organisms on surfaces immersed in water. It is of particular concern to the international shipping industry because fouling increases the drag on vessels as they move through the water, resulting in higher fuel costs, and presents a biosecurity risk by providing a pathway for marine non-indigenous species (NIS) to establish in new areas. There is growing interest within jurisdictions to strengthen biofouling risk-management regulations, but it is expensive to conduct in-water inspections and assess the collected data to determine the biofouling state of vessel hulls. Machine learning is well suited to tackle the latter challenge, and here we apply so-called deep learning to automate the classification of images from in-water inspections for the presence and severity of biofouling. We combined images collected from in-water surveys conducted by the Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries and the California State Lands Commission, and annotated them using the Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) crowdsourcing platform. We compared the annotations from three biofouling experts on a 120-sample subset of these images, and found that for two tasks, identifying images containing fouling, and identifying images containing heavy fouling, they showed 89% agreement (95% CI: 87-92%). It was found that the MTurk labelling approach achieved similar agreement with experts, which we defined as performing at most 5% worse than experts (p=0.004-0.020). Our deep learning model trained with the MTurk annotations also showed reasonable performance in comparison to expert agreement, although at a lower significance level (p=0.071-0.093). We also demonstrate that significantly better performance than expert agreement can be achieved if a classifier with high recall or precision was required.

We consider offline detection of a single changepoint in binary and count time-series. We compare exact tests based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and the likelihood ratio (LR) statistics, and a new proposal that combines exact two-sample conditional tests with multiplicity correction, against standard asymptotic tests based on the Brownian bridge approximation to the CUSUM statistic. We see empirically that the exact tests are much more powerful in situations where normal approximations driving asymptotic tests are not trustworthy: (i) small sample settings; (ii) sparse parametric settings; (iii) time-series with changepoint near the boundary. We also consider a multichannel version of the problem, where channels can have different changepoints. Controlling the False Discovery Rate (FDR), we simultaneously detect changes in multiple channels. This "local" approach is shown to be more advantageous than multivariate global testing approaches when the number of channels with changepoints is much smaller than the total number of channels. As a natural application, we consider network-valued time-series and use our approach with (a) edges as binary channels and (b) node-degrees or other local subgraph statistics as count channels. The local testing approach is seen to be much more informative than global network changepoint algorithms.

In identifying infected patients in a population, group testing is an effective method to reduce the number of tests and correct the test errors. In the group testing procedure, tests are performed on pools of specimens collected from patients, where the number of pools is lower than that of patients. The performance of group testing heavily depends on the design of pools and algorithms that are used in inferring the infected patients from the test outcomes. In this paper, an adaptive design method of pools based on the predictive distribution is proposed in the framework of Bayesian inference. The proposed method executed using the belief propagation algorithm results in more accurate identification of the infected patients, as compared to the group testing performed on random pools determined in advance.

Classification is a well-studied machine learning task which concerns the assignment of instances to a set of outcomes. Classification models support the optimization of managerial decision-making across a variety of operational business processes. For instance, customer churn prediction models are adopted to increase the efficiency of retention campaigns by optimizing the selection of customers that are to be targeted. Cost-sensitive and causal classification methods have independently been proposed to improve the performance of classification models. The former considers the benefits and costs of correct and incorrect classifications, such as the benefit of a retained customer, whereas the latter estimates the causal effect of an action, such as a retention campaign, on the outcome of interest. This study integrates cost-sensitive and causal classification by elaborating a unifying evaluation framework. The framework encompasses a range of existing and novel performance measures for evaluating both causal and conventional classification models in a cost-sensitive as well as a cost-insensitive manner. We proof that conventional classification is a specific case of causal classification in terms of a range of performance measures when the number of actions is equal to one. The framework is shown to instantiate to application-specific cost-sensitive performance measures that have been recently proposed for evaluating customer retention and response uplift models, and allows to maximize profitability when adopting a causal classification model for optimizing decision-making. The proposed framework paves the way toward the development of cost-sensitive causal learning methods and opens a range of opportunities for improving data-driven business decision-making.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

We introduce an efficient framework for computing the distance between collider events using the tools of Linearized Optimal Transport (LOT). This preserves many of the advantages of the recently-introduced Energy Mover's Distance, which quantifies the "work" required to rearrange one event into another, while significantly reducing the computational cost. It also furnishes a Euclidean embedding amenable to simple machine learning algorithms and visualization techniques, which we demonstrate in a variety of jet tagging examples. The LOT approximation lowers the threshold for diverse applications of the theory of optimal transport to collider physics.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been successfully employed by a vast range of practitioners with different backgrounds. One of the reasons for ML popularity is the capability to consistently delivers accurate results, which can be further boosted by adjusting hyperparameters (HP). However, part of practitioners has limited knowledge about the algorithms and does not take advantage of suitable HP settings. In general, HP values are defined by trial and error, tuning, or by using default values. Trial and error is very subjective, time costly and dependent on the user experience. Tuning techniques search for HP values able to maximize the predictive performance of induced models for a given dataset, but with the drawback of a high computational cost and target specificity. To avoid tuning costs, practitioners use default values suggested by the algorithm developer or by tools implementing the algorithm. Although default values usually result in models with acceptable predictive performance, different implementations of the same algorithm can suggest distinct default values. To maintain a balance between tuning and using default values, we propose a strategy to generate new optimized default values. Our approach is grounded on a small set of optimized values able to obtain predictive performance values better than default settings provided by popular tools. The HP candidates are estimated through a pool of promising values tuned from a small and informative set of datasets. After performing a large experiment and a careful analysis of the results, we concluded that our approach delivers better default values. Besides, it leads to competitive solutions when compared with the use of tuned values, being easier to use and having a lower cost.Based on our results, we also extracted simple rules to guide practitioners in deciding whether using our new methodology or a tuning approach.

Distance-based classification is among the most competitive classification methods for time series data. The most critical component of distance-based classification is the selected distance function. Past research has proposed various different distance metrics or measures dedicated to particular aspects of real-world time series data, yet there is an important aspect that has not been considered so far: Robustness against arbitrary data contamination. In this work, we propose a novel distance metric that is robust against arbitrarily "bad" contamination and has a worst-case computational complexity of $\mathcal{O}(n\log n)$. We formally argue why our proposed metric is robust, and demonstrate in an empirical evaluation that the metric yields competitive classification accuracy when applied in k-Nearest Neighbor time series classification.

In complex industrial systems, the number of possible fault types is uncountable, making it impossible to train supervised models covering them all. Instead, anomaly detectors are trained on healthy operating condition data and raise an alarm when the data deviate from the healthy conditions, indicating the possible occurrence of faults. Data-driven anomaly detection performance relies on a representative collection of samples of the normal (healthy) class distribution. This means that the samples used to train the model should be sufficient in number and distributed so as to empirically determine the full healthy distribution. But for industrial systems in gradually varying environments or subject to changing usage, acquiring such a comprehensive set of samples would require a long collection period and delay the point at which the anomaly detector could be trained and operational. In this paper, we propose a framework for the transfer of complementary operating conditions between different units, to train more robust anomaly detectors. The domain shift due to different units' specificities needs to be accounted for. This problem is an extension of Unsupervised Domain Adaptation to the one-class classification task. We solve the problem with adversarial deep learning and replace the traditional classification loss, unavailable in one-class problems, with a new loss inspired by a dimensionality reduction tool. This loss enforces the conservation of the inherent variability of each dataset while the adversarial architecture ensures the alignment of the distributions, hence correcting the domain shift. We demonstrate the benefit of this approach using three open source datasets.