Detecting substructure within strongly lensed images is a promising route to shed light on the nature of dark matter. It is a challenging task, which traditionally requires detailed lens modeling and source reconstruction, taking weeks to analyze each system. We use machine learning to circumvent the need for lens and source modeling and develop a method to both locate subhalos in an image as well as determine their mass using the technique of image segmentation. The network is trained on images with a single subhalo located near the Einstein ring. Training in this way allows the network to learn the gravitational lensing of light and it is then able to accurately detect entire populations of substructure, even far from the Einstein ring. In images with a single subhalo and without noise, the network detects subhalos of mass $10^6 M_{\odot}$ 62% of the time and 78% of these detected subhalos are predicted in the correct mass bin. The detection accuracy increases for heavier masses. When random noise at the level of 1% of the mean brightness of the image is included (which is a realistic approximation HST, for sources brighter than magnitude 20), the network loses sensitivity to the low-mass subhalos; with noise, the $10^{8.5}M_{\odot}$ subhalos are detected 86% of the time, but the $10^8 M_{\odot}$ subhalos are only detected 38% of the time. The false-positive rate is around 2 false subhalos per 100 images with and without noise, coming mostly from masses $\leq10^8 M_{\odot}$. With good accuracy and a low false-positive rate, counting the number of pixels assigned to each subhalo class over multiple images allows for a measurement of the subhalo mass function (SMF). When measured over five mass bins from $10^8 M_{\odot}$ to $10^{10} M_{\odot}$ the SMF slope is recovered with an error of 14.2 (16.3)% for 10 images, and this improves to 2.1 (2.6)% for 1000 images without (with 1%) noise.

This vision paper demonstrates that it is crucial to consider Return-on-Investment (ROI) when performing Data Analytics. Decisions on "How much analytics is needed"? are hard to answer. ROI could guide for decision support on the What?, How?, and How Much? analytics for a given problem. Method: The proposed conceptual framework is validated through two empirical studies that focus on requirements dependencies extraction in the Mozilla Firefox project. The two case studies are (i) Evaluation of fine-tuned BERT against Naive Bayes and Random Forest machine learners for binary dependency classification and (ii) Active Learning against passive Learning (random sampling) for REQUIRES dependency extraction. For both the cases, their analysis investment (cost) is estimated, and the achievable benefit from DA is predicted, to determine a break-even point of the investigation. Results: For the first study, fine-tuned BERT performed superior to the Random Forest, provided that more than 40% of training data is available. For the second, Active Learning achieved higher F1 accuracy within fewer iterations and higher ROI compared to Baseline (Random sampling based RF classifier). In both the studies, estimate on, How much analysis likely would pay off for the invested efforts?, was indicated by the break-even point. Conclusions: Decisions for the depth and breadth of DA of empirical data should not be made solely based on the accuracy measures. Since ROI-driven Data Analytics provides a simple yet effective direction to discover when to stop further investigation while considering the cost and value of the various types of analysis, it helps to avoid over-analyzing empirical data.

Much recent research has shed light on the development of the relation-dependent but content-independent framework for social spammer detection. This is largely because the relation among users is difficult to be altered when spammers attempt to conceal their malicious intents. Our study investigates the spammer detection problem in the context of multi-relation social networks, and makes an attempt to fully exploit the sequences of heterogeneous relations for enhancing the detection accuracy. Specifically, we present the Multi-level Dependency Model (MDM). The MDM is able to exploit user's long-term dependency hidden in their relational sequences along with short-term dependency. Moreover, MDM fully considers short-term relational sequences from the perspectives of individual-level and union-level, due to the fact that the type of short-term sequences is multi-folds. Experimental results on a real-world multi-relational social network demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed MDM on multi-relational social spammer detection.

With the success of big data and artificial intelligence in many fields, the applications of big data driven models are expected in financial risk management especially credit scoring and rating. Under the premise of data privacy protection, we propose a projected gradient-based method in the vertical federated learning framework for the traditional scorecard, which is based on logistic regression with bounded constraints, namely FL-LRBC. The latter enables multiple agencies to jointly train an optimized scorecard model in a single training session. It leads to the formation of the model with positive coefficients, while the time-consuming parameter-tuning process can be avoided. Moreover, the performance in terms of both AUC and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics is significantly improved due to data enrichment using FL-LRBC. At present, FL-LRBC has already been applied to credit business in a China nation-wide financial holdings group.

Fairness in machine learning has received considerable attention. However, most studies on fair learning focus on either supervised learning or unsupervised learning. Very few consider semi-supervised settings. Yet, in reality, most machine learning tasks rely on large datasets that contain both labeled and unlabeled data. One of key issues with fair learning is the balance between fairness and accuracy. Previous studies arguing that increasing the size of the training set can have a better trade-off. We believe that increasing the training set with unlabeled data may achieve the similar result. Hence, we develop a framework for fair semi-supervised learning, which is formulated as an optimization problem. This includes classifier loss to optimize accuracy, label propagation loss to optimize unlabled data prediction, and fairness constraints over labeled and unlabeled data to optimize the fairness level. The framework is conducted in logistic regression and support vector machines under the fairness metrics of disparate impact and disparate mistreatment. We theoretically analyze the source of discrimination in semi-supervised learning via bias, variance and noise decomposition. Extensive experiments show that our method is able to achieve fair semi-supervised learning, and reach a better trade-off between accuracy and fairness than fair supervised learning.

I am finishing up a work-note that has some really neat implications as to why working with AUC is more powerful than one might think. I think I am far enough along to share the consequences here. This started as some, now reappraised, thoughts on the fallacy of thinking knowing the AUC (area under the curve) means you know the shape of the ROC plot (receiver operating characteristic plot]. I now think for many practical applications the AUC number carries a lot more information about the ROC shape than one might expect. For the experienced practitioner the following ROC shape is very familiar.

Communicating effectively with customers is a challenge for many marketers, but especially in a context that is both pivotal to individual long-term financial well-being and difficult to understand: pensions. Around the world, participants are reluctant to consider their pension in advance, it leads to a lack of preparation of their pension retirement [1], [2]. In order to engage participants to obtain information on their expected pension benefits, personalizing the pension providers' email communication is a first and crucial step. We describe a machine learning approach to model email newsletters to fit participants' interests. The data for the modeling and analysis is collected from newsletters sent by a large Dutch pension provider of the Netherlands and is divided into two parts. The first part comprises 2,228,000 customers whereas the second part comprises the data of a pilot study, which took place in July 2018 with 465,711 participants. In both cases, our algorithm extracts features from continuous and categorical data using random forests, and then calculates node embeddings of the decision boundaries of the random forest. We illustrate the algorithm's effectiveness for the classification task, and how it can be used to perform data mining tasks. In order to confirm that the result is valid for more than one data set, we also illustrate the properties of our algorithm in benchmark data sets concerning churning. In the data sets considered, the proposed modeling demonstrates competitive performance with respect to other state of the art approaches based on random forests, achieving the best Area Under the Curve (AUC) in the pension data set (0.948). For the descriptive part, the algorithm can identify customer segmentations that can be used by marketing departments to better target their communication towards their customers.

The induction of additional randomness in parallel and sequential ensemble methods has proven to be worthwhile in many aspects. In this manuscript, we propose and examine a novel random tree depth injection approach suitable for sequential and parallel tree-based approaches including Boosting and Random Forests. The resulting methods are called \emph{Random Boost} and \emph{Random$^2$ Forest}. Both approaches serve as valuable extensions to the existing literature on the gradient boosting framework and random forests. A Monte Carlo simulation, in which tree-shaped data sets with different numbers of final partitions are built, suggests that there are several scenarios where \emph{Random Boost} and \emph{Random$^2$ Forest} can improve the prediction performance of conventional hierarchical boosting and random forest approaches. The new algorithms appear to be especially successful in cases where there are merely a few high-order interactions in the generated data. In addition, our simulations suggest that our random tree depth injection approach can improve computation time by up to 40%, while at the same time the performance losses in terms of prediction accuracy turn out to be minor or even negligible in most cases.

The research on and application of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered a comprehensive scientific, economic, social and political discussion. Here we argue that statistics, as an interdisciplinary scientific field, plays a substantial role both for the theoretical and practical understanding of AI and for its future development. Statistics might even be considered a core element of AI. With its specialist knowledge of data evaluation, starting with the precise formulation of the research question and passing through a study design stage on to analysis and interpretation of the results, statistics is a natural partner for other disciplines in teaching, research and practice. This paper aims at contributing to the current discussion by highlighting the relevance of statistical methodology in the context of AI development. In particular, we discuss contributions of statistics to the field of artificial intelligence concerning methodological development, planning and design of studies, assessment of data quality and data collection, differentiation of causality and associations and assessment of uncertainty in results. Moreover, the paper also deals with the equally necessary and meaningful extension of curricula in schools and universities.

Universal Serial Bus (USB) Flash Drives are nowadays one of the most convenient and diffused means to transfer files, especially when no Internet connection is available. However, USB flash drives are also one of the most common attack vectors used to gain unauthorized access to host devices. For instance, it is possible to replace a USB drive so that when the USB key is connected, it would install passwords stealing tools, root-kit software, and other disrupting malware. In such a way, an attacker can steal sensitive information via the USB-connected devices, as well as inject any kind of malicious software into the host. To thwart the above-cited raising threats, we propose MAGNETO, an efficient, non-interactive, and privacy-preserving framework to verify the authenticity of a USB flash drive, rooted in the analysis of its unintentional magnetic emissions. We show that the magnetic emissions radiated during boot operations on a specific host are unique for each device, and sufficient to uniquely fingerprint both the brand and the model of the USB flash drive, or the specific USB device, depending on the used equipment. Our investigation on 59 different USB flash drives---belonging to 17 brands, including the top brands purchased on Amazon in mid-2019---, reveals a minimum classification accuracy of 98.2% in the identification of both brand and model, accompanied by a negligible time and computational overhead. MAGNETO can also identify the specific USB Flash drive, with a minimum classification accuracy of 91.2%. Overall, MAGNETO proves that unintentional magnetic emissions can be considered as a viable and reliable means to fingerprint read-only USB flash drives. Finally, future research directions in this domain are also discussed.